Lynx vs Connecticut Sun (W) Prediction 7 July 2026
🏀 We’re set for a clash between the WNBA’s top team and the league’s bottom side. Bookmakers have no doubt about a Minnesota Lynx victory, giving them a 91% chance of success against the Connecticut Sun. For Minnesota, this is an opportunity to strengthen their grip on first place, while the visitors would climb off the foot of the table with a shock win.
Head-to-Head
📊 These teams have yet to meet this season, so any head-to-head analysis relies on last year’s WNBA campaign. In the previous season, the Minnesota Lynx swept all three matchups, twice winning by a margin of 16 points or more. On average, the hosts put up 90.7 points per game, while their opponents managed just 67.7.
Head-to-head statistics Lynx - Connecticut Sun (W)
Minnesota Lynx (W) Team Overview
Minnesota Lynx currently top the standings, having claimed victory in 75% of their games, though they've suffered two defeats in their last five outings. Over the course of the season, the team averages 90.25 points per game while conceding just 80.3. The Lynx excel at dictating the tempo on their home court and consistently deliver high-scoring performances thanks to a potent offense and efficient use of possessions. However, their defense occasionally allows opponents to stay within striking distance on the scoreboard.
Match Results: Minnesota Lynx (W)
Connecticut Sun (W) Team Overview
Connecticut Sun have managed to win just one out of every five games this season, which sees them firmly rooted to the bottom of the standings. Interestingly, there’s a sense of momentum building: half of their victories have come in the past two weeks. On average, the visitors are putting up only 79.45 points per game, while conceding a worrying 86.6 to their opponents. Those numbers highlight issues not only in defense but also in rebounding and off-ball movement; offensively, the Sun lack the consistency needed to make up for their struggles at the back.
Match Results: Connecticut Sun (W)
Prediction for the 1st quarter
Head-to-Head Matches:
- Total encounters - 52;
- First quarter wins at home for the hosts - 9; for the visitors on the road - 15;
- Average total points in the first quarter: 39.94;
- Today's home team averages 19.94, while the visitors average 20.
First Quarter Stats: Minnesota Lynx (W) (home) vs Connecticut Sun (W) (away)
- Tournament matches played: 10 vs 10;
- Number of wins: 7 (70%) vs 5 (50%);
- Number of losses: 2 (20%) vs 4 (40%);
- Number of draws: 1 (10%) vs 1 (10%).
- Average points scored: 23.5 vs 22.6;
- Average points conceded: 17.9 vs 23.2.
Last 10 Matches (Overall):
- Number of wins: 4 vs 6;
- Number of losses: 5 vs 4;
- Number of draws: 1 vs 0;
- Average first quarter total: 45.6 (scored - 23.2, conceded - 22.4) vs 41.4 (scored - 21.6, conceded - 19.8).
- Over 41.5 points in the 1st quarter in 8 of last 9 Minnesota Lynx (W) games (WNBA).
Prediction on the outcome
H2H:
- Number of encounters - 52;
- Home team wins - 26, away team wins - 26.
- Connecticut Sun (W) won with a +18.5 points handicap in 7 of last 8 away games (WNBA).
Prediction on the over/under
H2H:
- average total points per match for the home team - 81.71, for the away team - 81.38;
- average total points in H2H matches - 163.1.
Statistics: Minnesota Lynx (W) vs Connecticut Sun (W)
- average total in the tournament: 167.83 vs 164.91;
- average total points scored: 88.83 vs 79.05;
- average total points conceded: 79 vs 85.86;
- average total points scored in the 1st half: 46.13 vs 40.09;
- average total points scored in the 2nd half: 42.7 vs 38.68;
- Minnesota Lynx (W): average total points scored at home in the tournament - 89.9;
- Connecticut Sun (W): average total points scored away in the tournament - 76.7;
- last 10 matches (average total points scored): 90 (home - 93.5) vs 83.3 (away - 85.67).
- Minnesota Lynx (W) have scored under 90.5 points in 30 of last 32 games against Connecticut Sun (W) (WNBA).
⭐ Editor's Pick
We’re expecting plenty of offensive action in this matchup, but nothing that suggests a high-scoring shootout. In 7 of Connecticut’s last 8 road games, the combined total hasn’t surpassed 167 points. That trend reflects both the visitors’ overall pace and their struggles to sustain high-tempo basketball against quality opposition. Our view is that the hosts will control proceedings on both ends of the floor, keeping the tempo moderate throughout. The pick: under 171.5 total points.No comments
Betting Tips: Minnesota Lynx (W) - Connecticut Sun (W)
in 6 of last 7 games against Minnesota Lynx (W) (WNBA).in 14 of last 15 away games (WNBA).in 11 of last 12 games (WNBA).in 8 of last 9 away games (WNBA).
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