Slovenia vs Sweden Prediction 6 July 2026
🏀Slovenia host Sweden in a crucial World Cup qualifier. The hosts are in a much stronger position, currently sitting second in Group H, while the visitors find themselves at the bottom of the table with only a slim chance of advancing. For Sweden, nothing short of a win over Slovenia will keep their hopes alive, and even then, they’ll need the Czech Republic to slip up against Estonia. Let’s see if the Scandinavians can pull off an upset.
Head-to-Head
📊The teams have faced each other three times, with Slovenia coming out on top in every encounter. Their most recent victory came during the current World Cup qualifiers on December 1, 2025, when Slovenia claimed a 94-83 win.
Head-to-head statistics Slovenia - Sweden
Slovenia Team Overview
Slovenia are putting together a solid qualification campaign, currently sitting second in the group and trailing Estonia only on tiebreakers. However, in this July window, the national team are missing not just their superstar Doncic, but also Prepelic and Cancar. Unsurprisingly, they suffered a heavy defeat away to Estonia just a few days ago, falling 62-93. Still, the sheer helplessness of the Slovenians came as a shock. In a game marred by poor execution, only Hrovat managed to score in double figures, finishing with 11 points. It's clear that Slovenia will need to significantly raise their game across the board if they want to overcome Sweden. Defensive improvement is especially crucial, as their recent numbers are worrying: over their last 10 outings, they've allowed an average of 88.5 points per contest.
Match Results: Slovenia
Sweden Team Overview
Sweden head into this clash riding a wave of momentum after back-to-back wins in World Cup qualifying, results that have breathed new life into their hopes of advancing to the next stage. The situation, though, remains tricky, as the Scandinavians not only need to beat Slovenia, but must also rely on Estonia pulling off a win against the Czech Republic. Last time out, Sweden secured an impressive 87-76 home victory over those same Czechs. NBA talent Larsson led all scorers with 19 points. Tre Kronor were outstanding in the first half, building a commanding 26-point lead, but defensive lapses after halftime allowed their opponents back into the contest. Improvement is needed not just at the back, but also in terms of offensive efficiency - Sweden converted just 6 of their 27 three-point attempts, a modest 22.2% success rate.
Match Results: Sweden
Prediction for the 1st quarter
Head-to-Head Matches:
- Total encounters - 3;
- First quarter wins at home for the hosts - 0; for the visitors on the road - 1;
- Average total points in the first quarter: 42.33;
- Today's home team averages 23.33, while the visitors average 19.
First Quarter Stats: Slovenia (home) vs Sweden (away)
- Tournament matches played: 2 vs 2;
- Number of wins: 2 (100%) vs 1 (50%);
- Number of losses: 0 (0%) vs 1 (50%);
- Number of draws: 0 (0%) vs 0 (0%).
- Average points scored: 20 vs 22.5;
- Average points conceded: 17.5 vs 24.5.
Last 10 Matches (Overall):
- Number of wins: 7 vs 5;
- Number of losses: 2 vs 4;
- Number of draws: 1 vs 1;
- Average first quarter total: 43.8 (scored - 24, conceded - 19.8) vs 42.2 (scored - 21.2, conceded - 21).
- Over 39.5 points in the 1st quarter in last 6 Sweden away games (World Cup Qualification, Europe).
Prediction on the outcome
H2H:
- number of matchups - 3;
- number of wins for the home team - 3, for the away team - 0.
Statistics: Slovenia vs Sweden
- number of tournament matches played: 5 vs 5;
- number of wins: 3 (60%) vs 2 (40%);
- number of losses: 2 (40%) vs 3 (60%);
- number of wins at home for the home team: 1;
- number of away wins for the away team: 1.
Last 10 matches:
- number of wins: 6 vs 3;
- number of losses: 4 vs 7;
- number of home wins for the home team: 1;
- number of away wins for the away team: 2.
- Slovenia won with a +8.5 points handicap in 11 of last 12 games.
- Slovenia won with a +8.5 points handicap in 8 of last 9 games (World Cup Qualification, Europe).
- Slovenia won with a +8.5 points handicap in last 5 home games (World Cup Qualification, Europe).
Prediction on the over/under
H2H:
- average total points per match for the home team - 90.67, for the away team - 84.33;
- average total points in H2H matches - 175.
Statistics: Slovenia vs Sweden
- average total in the tournament: 169.4 vs 166;
- average total points scored: 86.8 vs 81.2;
- average total points conceded: 82.6 vs 84.8;
- average total points scored in the 1st half: 39.6 vs 44.6;
- average total points scored in the 2nd half: 44.4 vs 36.6;
- Slovenia: average total points scored at home in the tournament - 96;
- Sweden: average total points scored away in the tournament - 79.5;
- last 10 matches (average total points scored): 88.5 (home - 91.67) vs 79.8 (away - 78.33).
- Slovenia have scored over 82.5 points in 12 of last 13 games.
- Slovenia have scored over 82.5 points in last 5 home games.
⭐ Editor's Pick
This matchup promises an up-tempo contest, with Slovenia known for their fast-paced offense, having topped the 82-point mark in 12 of their last 13 outings. However, their defense remains inconsistent, as reflected in the average points they've conceded recently. Sweden, on the other hand, often struggle to find rhythm offensively and have failed to surpass 84 points in 9 of their previous 10 games. Home-court advantage should work in Slovenia’s favor, and given their skill level, they are more than capable of holding their own. Backing Slovenia with a +6.5 handicap looks like a smart play here.No comments
Betting Tips: Slovenia - Sweden
in 11 of last 12 away games.in last 6 away games (World Cup Qualification, Europe).in 7 of last 8 games.in 6 of last 7 games.in last 9 Slovenia games (World Cup Qualification, Europe).in last 6 Slovenia games.in last 8 Sweden games (World Cup Qualification, Europe).in last 7 Sweden games.
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