Yokohama Baystars vs Hiroshima Prediction 28 September 2026
📡 Hiroshima extended their strong September run with a 5-3 win in Yokohama on Sunday and now face DeNA for the second game in a row. The hosts remain third in the standings at 69-68-3 after back-to-back defeats, while the visitors sit at 57-75-4. The key storyline for this prediction is the stark contrast on the mound: DeNA are sending one of the league’s top starters, Katsuki Azuma, while Hiroshima are handing NPB rookie Taiki Kudo his first career start.
DeNA tend to come out on top in the series, but Hiroshima consistently manage to keep the score within a single run.
📊 DeNA have claimed six of the last 10 head-to-head meetings, outscoring their rivals 44-30. However, the series hasn’t been entirely one-sided. Hiroshima have picked up four wins of their own, and two of their defeats were narrow-falling 1-2 and 3-4. On Sunday, the visitors snapped a three-game losing streak in this matchup with a 5-3 victory in Yokohama.
Head-to-head statistics Yokohama Baystars - Hiroshima
Yokohama welcome Azuma after suffering back-to-back home defeats.
Yokohama remain third in the standings, but their last two home games ended in defeats-3-8 against Hanshin and 3-5 to Hiroshima. Still, DeNA’s season-long strengths haven’t vanished: by the end of the week, they led the Central League with 544 runs and 124 home runs, while their team slugging percentage hovered around .375. Their pitching staff posts an ERA of about 3.3, and the bullpen has racked up over 140 holds. The recent slump isn’t due to a lack of opportunities; instead, Yokohama’s powerful offense simply hasn’t been able to offset the runs they've conceded.
Match Results: Yokohama Dena Baystars
Hiroshima compensate for their lackluster attacking form this season with a three-game winning streak.
The visitors come in with a much weaker overall record, but their recent form tells a different story. Hiroshima have strung together three straight wins-beating Yomiuri 3-1 and 3-2, taking a day off, then edging out DeNA 5-3. Despite this hot streak, their offense remains the weakest in the league: they’re batting just .224 on average, with 401 runs scored and a .287 OBP. However, the bullpen has stepped up late in games, providing a reliable closing scenario-Daisuke Moriura sealed both victories over Yomiuri as well as Sunday’s win in Yokohama.
Match Results: Hiroshima Toyo Carp
⚾ Starting Pitchers
Katsuki Azuma, a left-hander, gives the hosts a clear edge on the mound. Over 24 starts this season, he’s posted a 12-5 record with a 2.32 ERA across 155 innings, allowing 128 hits, striking out 117, conceding 47 runs, and delivering an impressive 0.99 WHIP. Azuma has registered 21 quality starts, tossed one complete game, and issued just 25 walks. With a quality start rate of 87.5%, DeNA rarely needs to turn to their bullpen early when he’s on the hill.
Taiki Kudo, a righty, is set to make his first career start in NPB. So far, he’s appeared twice in relief, posting a 0-0 record with a 3.38 ERA over 2.2 innings, surrendering 3 hits and 1 run while striking out 3 and recording a 1.50 WHIP; no complete games or quality starts yet. In the farm league, Kudo featured in 27 games with five starts, including a six-inning outing in August where he gave up just one run. This marks a significant step up in competition for the rookie.
⭐ Editor’s Prediction
On paper, DeNA clearly have the edge in this pitching matchup: Azuma is delivering a season worthy of Central League’s elite, while Kudo is making his first full start against the tournament’s most dangerous offense. However, the scenario we’re backing doesn’t require Hiroshima to win this duel outright. The Carp come into this contest riding a three-game winning streak, having just beaten DeNA on this very field. In the last ten head-to-head meetings, Hiroshima have claimed four victories and lost two others by just a single run. The game’s structure also works in their favor: if Kudo can keep it close through the early innings and hand things off to the bullpen, Hiroshima have Moriura and a group of relievers who’ve already proven themselves in tight finishes. DeNA have been stronger over the course of the season, but with Hiroshima’s current form and a 1.5-run cushion, this line makes more sense than simply betting against Azuma. We’re taking Hiroshima +1.5 on the run line.
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Betting Tips: Yokohama Dena Baystars - Hiroshima Toyo Carp
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