Pirates vs Cardinals Prediction 24 September 2026
π‘ The series finale in Pittsburgh comes after the teams traded dramatically different results. The Pirates opened with a 2-0 shutout, but St. Louis hit back with a commanding 5-1 win, snapping the hostsβ strong home stretch. Now Pittsburgh turn to Paul Skenes, while the Cardinals counter with Kyle Leahy. The line is set at 5.5, which looks low for a matchup where eight of the last ten head-to-head games have produced at least six total runs.
Eight out of ten meetings between Pittsburgh and St. Louis have already surpassed the current low line.
π The last ten head-to-head meetings are evenly split at five wins apiece. The scorelines, however, suggest a strong trend towards high-scoring affairs: 5-4, 10-5, 9-6, 7-0, 6-2, 4-1, 6-2, 5-4, 2-0, and 5-1. Only two of those ten matchups failed to reach a combined total of six runs. Given this pattern, even a relatively modest 4-2 result would fit right in with the usual dynamics between these teams.
Head-to-head statistics Pirates - Cardinals
The Pirates have slowed down in this series after their offense showed significant improvement in September.
The Pirates have shown significant improvement at the plate heading into this series. Over their latest ten-game stretch, theyβve put up 40 runs, including impressive outings against Kansas City where they posted 8, 6, and 4 runs in consecutive games. While their offensive output dipped to just two and one run in the first two matchups with St. Louis, this lineup has already demonstrated in September that they can quickly shift gears between low-scoring affairs and explosive innings. Brandon Lowe, Oneil Cruz, and a group of young bats in the heart of the order provide the hosts with multiple sources of power hitting.
Match Results: Pittsburgh Pirates
The Cardinals responded with five runs right after a scoreless start to the series.
The Cardinals bounced back yesterday, plating five runs after being shut out in the series opener. That performance sums up their unpredictable September-low-scoring outings are often followed by explosive nights with five runs or more. Alec Burleson continues to drive the offense, Jordan Walker remains a constant power threat, and St. Louis have consistently capitalized on Pittsburghβs shaky starting pitching throughout this season. In their last ten head-to-head meetings, the Cardinals have scored at least four runs on five occasions.
Match Results: St. Louis Cardinals
βΎ Starting Pitchers
Paul Skenes takes the mound for the hosts, entering with a 10-11 record, a 3.91 ERA, and a 1.13 WHIP. His September has been inconsistent: he allowed five earned runs in just over four innings against San Francisco, followed by a shutout performance against the Angels, then gave up two runs over seven innings in Chicago, and surrendered five runs across six innings versus Kansas City. In two of his last four starts, opponents have tagged him for five earned runs.
Kyle Leahy comes in with a 10-5 record, a 3.65 ERA, and a 1.34 WHIP. His recent outings have also been a mixed bag: five runs allowed in 2.2 innings at Colorado, three scoreless frames against Chicago, and six earned runs in just three innings facing Washington. Leahyβs short starts often force an early move to the bullpen, giving Pittsburgh several extra looks at the visitorsβ middle relievers.
β Editorβs Prediction
With the line set at 5.5, neither side needs a full-blown slugfest for the over to hit. Eight of the last ten head-to-head meetings have already cleared at least six runs, and Leahy has allowed five and six runs in two of his last three outings, despite short stints on the mound. Skenes has the ability to keep St. Louis in check, but even he gave up five earned runs in his most recent start, opening the door for the visitorsβ offense to contribute. Pittsburgh have consistently scored four or more runs leading into this series, while the Cardinals bounced back with five runs yesterday. Even if both starting pitchers come out strong in the early innings, thereβs still plenty of time for a 4-2 type scoreline. The smart play here is on the over 5.5 total runs.
No comments
Betting Tips: Pittsburgh Pirates - St. Louis Cardinals
in 10 of last 11 Pittsburgh Pirates games (MLB).in 7 of last 8 Pittsburgh Pirates home games (MLB).in 6 of last 7 St. Louis Cardinals games (MLB).in 14 of last 16 St. Louis Cardinals away games (MLB).in 19 of last 21 games (MLB).in 11 of last 12 away games (MLB).Other predictions
