Pirates vs Cardinals Prediction 23 September 2026
📡 Pittsburgh opened the series with a 2-0 shutout win, improving their record to 80-77. The Pirates are maintaining their strong finish at home, riding a streak of four straight series wins, and their pitching staff once again delivered a near-flawless performance. St. Louis were held scoreless and now turn to Matthew Liberatore for Game 2, despite his season ERA sitting above 5.00. The matchup against the lefty is also significant for this prediction: the top of Pittsburgh’s order should have plenty of opportunities to apply early pressure.
Pittsburgh have turned their head-to-head series around, winning four of their last five games.
📊 After yesterday’s 2-0 result, the last ten head-to-head meetings are now dead even at 5-5. Back in the spring, St. Louis were in firm control of the series, but Pittsburgh have claimed victory in four of the five most recent encounters, including both August clashes and the opening game of the current series. The momentum has clearly shifted toward the Pirates, particularly when their pitching staff manages to keep the Cardinals from putting together a big early inning.
Head-to-head statistics Pirates - Cardinals
The Pirates wrap up their season with wins, even without putting up big offensive numbers.
The Pirates are closing out the season much stronger than they played through the middle stretch. Heading into this series, they had already strung together four consecutive wins, and yesterday they added a fifth, shutting out St. Louis. Konnor Griffin continues to stand out as one of the most productive young players on the roster, and he looks set for a favorable matchup against Liberatore. Pittsburgh have shown they can win with both explosive offense and tight, low-scoring games, making them less reliant on any single game plan.
Match Results: Pittsburgh Pirates
The Cardinals were held scoreless and now turn to the inconsistent Liberatore.
The Cardinals are sitting at 76-81 and, after last night’s game, can no longer finish the season above .500. The main issue in the series opener was their lack of run production: the team failed to score against Jared Jones and the Pirates’ bullpen. In recent head-to-head matchups with Pittsburgh, St. Louis have increasingly struggled due to their inability to provide enough run support for their starting pitching. Now, they turn to Liberatore, whose season has been plagued by allowing far too many baserunners.
Match Results: St. Louis Cardinals
⚾ Starting Pitchers
Khristian Curtis gets the nod for the hosts after an impressive outing against Milwaukee, where he worked 3.1 innings, allowed just one earned run, and surrendered only a single hit. His overall MLB line stands at 2-0, with a 4.67 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP across five appearances. Curtis isn’t your prototypical deep-innings starter, so Pittsburgh are likely to turn to their bullpen early once again. Still, in four of his five outings, he’s managed to avoid any major damage.
Matthew Liberatore enters with a 5-14 record, a 5.36 ERA, and a WHIP around 1.49. His most recent start was solid-just one earned run over six innings-but prior to that he was tagged for five runs in 4.1 innings at Colorado. More concerning is his overall profile: 27 home runs allowed and a high opponents’ on-base rate give Pittsburgh plenty of avenues for an early lead.
⭐ Editor’s Prediction
Curtis getting the start doesn’t give Pittsburgh much of an edge over the first five innings, with his limited workload remaining a key concern. However, Liberatore has struggled all season, and the recent head-to-head momentum has clearly swung in favor of the hosts. The Pirates have taken four of the last five meetings and completely shut down St. Louis’ offense yesterday. Their bullpen remains sharp as the season winds down, and they’ve found ways to win at home even without piling on runs. If Pittsburgh can grab even a slight lead by the middle innings, their current form suggests they’re well-positioned to see it through. We’re backing a Pittsburgh Pirates win.
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Betting Tips: Pittsburgh Pirates - St. Louis Cardinals
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