Roland Garros: A Changing of the Guard or Aryna Sabalenka's Triumph?
The women's Roland Garros is about to start soon, with only the last days of qualification remaining. However, it so happens that players who make it through the qualifiers rarely advance beyond the Round of 16. Therefore, it's not worth considering them as serious contenders for the trophy. Interestingly, even the champion of the last three editions can't be considered as such. So, what awaits us?
Most tennis enthusiasts are eagerly anticipating Sobolenko's trophy. At the moment, Aryna is in her best form, and stopping her seems nearly impossible. Rome shouldn't be taken into account – she was simply exhausted there. But young athletes are breathing down the Belarusian's neck and are ready to seize the lead.
Aryna Sabalenka in Her Prime
Sabalenka has never played in the final of Roland Garros before. However, this year she has excellent chances not only to participate in the main match but also to win it. The Belarusian tennis player is in her best form, having already won Madrid, reached the final in Stuttgart, and the quarterfinals in Rome. In the Italian capital, she was already tired, with no strength left to play a second consecutive thousand-level tournament at the top level. Everyone was talking about Aryna breaking Williams' record for points scored in a season, but after her exit in Rome, this seems almost impossible.
These talks are likely only distracting Sabalenka. Although videos or news about how she deals with psychological issues and copes with defeats constantly surface online. Aryna has a great sense of humor: teasing coaches, sarcastic remarks – her distinctive trait that helps overcome setbacks.
Perhaps that's why Sabalenka looks like the main contender for victory in Paris. By the way, the odds of the Belarusian winning at least one Grand Slam tournament this year are higher than the odds of her ending the year without such a trophy.
Is There Anyone Who Can Stop Sabalenka?
It seems we won't be parting with this name anytime soon. But what can you do? Aryna is just that good. However, she does have truly serious competitors. Watching the Madrid final, we see that the Belarusian played against Cori Gauff, and in the second set, we even saw a tiebreak.
Moreover, in Rome, Gauff also reached the final, but again fell just short. The crowd factor and fatigue after a tough semifinal took their toll. On paper, the American was much stronger, but Paolini overwhelmed her. Cori was undone by the number of errors in the first set, and in the second set, she didn't even have time to make those same mistakes.
If Gauff reaches the final not as tired, she will likely have no problems. Adding a rapid serve and a more consistent return, and Cori would be unstoppable.
Former Finalist
Now let's talk about the Rome champion and last year's Roland Garros finalist. Jasmine Paolini won the tournament in the Italian capital not only in singles but also in doubles. She is in great spirits and enviable physical condition. Interestingly, this year Paolini has played against Gauff twice and emerged victorious both times. The Italian has found the key to the American's tennis game.
But what will happen at Roland Garros? Paolini can also be considered a favorite. Last year, she played in the final and recently won a WTA 1000 event. Some might say that in Rome, the Italian was lucky to be in the part of the draw without Sabalenka, but that's a questionable statement. On her way, she defeated Ostapenko, Schneider, and Stearns—serious competitors—and in the final, she left no stone unturned against Gauff.
At Roland Garros, Paolini certainly won't have an easy draw, so she'll have to push herself hard. Perhaps the Italian doesn't have the same consistency as Gauff or Sabalenka. But riding the emotional high from her victory in Rome, she is capable of reaching at least the quarterfinals.
The Young Generation
It's silly to say that Gauff is already old; she's only 21 years old, with her entire career ahead of her. But even younger players are breathing down her neck. For example, Mirra Andreeva. The Russian shows great promise. Although matches against Gauff don't go well for Mirra, which surely affects her mental health.
In general, the nerves of the 18-year-old Russian are not in the best shape; she gets very upset after each loss. It's encouraging that Andreeva has stopped crying for days after tournament exits and has started working on her mistakes instead. There's still a lot of work to be done on her psychology, but in terms of skill, Mirra is already at a very high level.
She won a tournament in Dubai, reached the round of 16 at the Australian Open, where she lost to Sabalenka, and then won the final in Indian Wells, taking revenge on the Belarusian. However, on clay, we don't see the same confident play from the Russian as on hard courts. Not everyone can handle such a challenging surface, but if Andreeva can conquer it, she will become a top player in world tennis and remain in the top ten, if not the top five, of the rankings for a long time.
At Roland Garros, it will be very difficult for Mirra; she currently seems unprepared for a Grand Slam tournament on clay. Firstly, it's not her surface, and secondly, nerves will take their toll—it's immense pressure that's hard to handle. If Andreeva reaches the round of 16, it will already be an excellent achievement.
Who is the Dark Horse?
There are many in women's tennis, so let's focus on the most prominent ones. For example, Elina Svitolina. Some might not believe in the Ukrainian tennis player, but she won a tournament in Rouen, reached the semifinals in Madrid, and had a series of 11 consecutive straight-set victories.
On clay, Elina feels like a fish in water. Yes, she couldn't play as planned against Sabalenka, but that's a completely different level. And the exit in Rome against Stearns was just a coincidence. The American gained incredible momentum, winning three consecutive matches in the third set tiebreak. If we exclude Sabalenka, Gauff, and Andreeva, Svitolina could have played in the final. But, as we know, history does not tolerate the subjunctive mood.
It is also worth noting Diana Schneider, who was unlucky with the draw at all clay tournaments. There were frankly difficult opponents that she couldn't pass. But this is what distinguishes a clear favorite from a shadow one – you need to be able to beat everyone. Schneider looks good on the ground and is gradually gaining a suitable shape. So at Roland Garros, we believe the Russian will be able to make a splash or at least reach the finals.
Iga Swiatek Forgot What It Means to Be at the Top
Iga Swiatek is no longer the world number two, and for many, this is something incredible. But it had been heading this way since the end of last season. The Pole lost her game. On hard and grass courts, fans might still forgive her failures, but on clay...
This season, Swiatek was eliminated in the quarterfinals of Stuttgart, the semifinals of Madrid, and the round of 16 in Rome. On hard courts, the Pole did not achieve the results expected of her. The problems began last season: amidst scandals and rumors, her mental health wavered, and no positive shifts have been noticed yet.
Currently, Swiatek is making mistakes in almost every aspect of her game and sometimes cannot even stand up to underdogs. Look at the match against Eala in Miami. Even though it was a hard court tournament, which has nothing to do with Roland Garros, Iga should have won. The game against the Filipino in Madrid was also not confident – a victory with a score of 2:1, but with a significant aftertaste.
What Can We Expect from the Women's Roland Garros?
For the men, it's clear – Sinner and Alcaraz are the main favorites. But for the women, there are more contenders for the title than Swiatek has titles. We certainly won't be bored during the RG, the qualification will soon end, and the fun will begin in the main draw. Sabalenka is the main favorite, but Gauff, Paolini, Andreeva, and Svitolina are ready to challenge her.
