Norrie vs Tomic Prediction 31 July 2026
🔊 Bernard Tomic delivered one of the biggest upsets of the tournament in the previous round at Los Cabos, beating fourth seed Karen Khachanov. The quarter-final brings Cameron Norrie - a step down in ranking, but not by much. Though that framing only holds if you're looking at the ATP standings. Norrie is a former champion here, and in five appearances at this tournament he's reached the semi-finals three times. Let's look at what his chances are of going deep again.
Head-to-Head
📊 Cameron Norrie and Bernard Tomic have never played each other before.
Head-to-head statistics Norrie - Tomic
Cameron Norrie Player Overview
Match Results: Cameron Norrie
Bernard Tomic Player Overview
Tomic is in good form right now - eight wins from his last ten, including two rounds in Los Cabos where he beat fourth seed Karen Khachanov. Over that stretch, he's been solid on serve: 74% of points won, 47% break-point conversion. He's taking 58% of games overall, which stands out for someone outside the top 100. That said, Tomic has history - over 500 hard-court matches, an ATP 250 title in Chengdu in 2018, and a career-high ranking of 17.
Match Results: Bernard Tomic
Key factors
- Tomic consistently goes over 11.5 games in the majority of his matches.
- Tomic's recent form is significantly better - eight wins from his last ten against four for Norrie.
- Tomic wins 58% of games played; Norrie wins 48%.
- In recent matches, Tomic has been solid on serve and rarely gets bageled.
Expected scenario
A relatively even match in terms of games, with Bernard Tomic having a shot at going over his individual total again - his form is solid and the serve has been reliable. A third set is possible, though not the base case. The more likely scenario is a tight fight for each set, with the betting favourite never really taking control of the tempo. Cameron Norrie isn't comfortable as the top dog either - he prefers baseline exchanges, though he can hit through his serve when needed.
Prediction on individual total
Given his underdog status, Tomic's ability to regularly clear the games threshold is worth noting. Strong hold numbers combined with solid return stats should give him enough opportunities to push through one of the over totals.
⭐ Editor's prediction
Tomic has been in solid form, scoring enough games to keep things close - even against higher-ranked opponents, and that win over Karen Khachanov says plenty. Norrie is near his best on these Mexican courts, but his pre-tournament form was shaky, and lapses mid-match aren't out of the question. That's exactly where Tomic can do damage. Back the underdog - Tomic handicap (+4.5).
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Betting Tips: Cameron Norrie - Bernard Tomic
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