Medvedev vs Carreno Busta Prediction 2 October 2026
π Daniil Medvedev has had more luck than the other finalists from the two Chinese ATP 250 events in Chengdu and Hangzhou: his first-round match in Beijing is scheduled a day later. The Russian arrives in the Chinese capital in fine form - a title in Hangzhou and a strong record at this 500-level event in previous years, having reached at least the semi-finals in each of his three previous appearances here. Pablo CarreΓ±o Busta, who came through qualifying and then waited two days for this match, will try to end that run. It remains to be seen whether the Spaniard has kept his sharpness.
Head-to-Head
π Daniil Medvedev leads the head-to-head record against Pablo CarreΓ±o Busta - five wins to two. Their last meeting, however, was in 2021.
Head-to-head statistics Medvedev - Carreno Busta
Daniil Medvedev Player Overview
Daniil Medvedev arrives at this tournament in good form, having won 7 of his last 10 matches. His three most recent victories came against Chak Lam Coleman Wong, Roman Safiullin and Andrey Rublev, which brought him the ATP 250 title in Hangzhou. His matches average 27.3 games, which suggests he rarely has things easy. This is partly down to a playing style that sits unusually with his physical build: although his hold percentage is high at 81%, he tends to stay deep on the baseline during rallies and drops even further back when returning.
Match Results: Daniil Medvedev
Pablo Carreno Busta Player Overview
Pablo CarreΓ±o Busta has won just four of his last ten matches, but came through qualifying to reach the Beijing main draw, beating Yi Zhou and Adrian Mannarino without dropping a set. The average total games in his matches stands at 21.8 - which reflects his ability to stay competitive on the scoreboard even when results are inconsistent. He holds serve in fewer than 7 out of 10 service games (69%), and his set-winning rate sits at 52%. Like Medvedev, the 35-year-old Spaniard is not particularly active inside the baseline, and his age by men's tour standards does not lend itself to chasing down balls that are all but out of reach.
Match Results: Pablo Carreno Busta
Key factors
- In Daniil Medvedev's last nine matches, the total has gone over 20.5 games.
- Daniil Medvedev's matches average 27.3 games.
- Pablo CarreΓ±o Busta's matches average 21.8 games.
- Their head-to-head meetings have often been competitive: only two of seven ended in a one-sided result.
Expected scenario
Daniil Medvedev, buoyed by his recent triumph in Hangzhou, will look to seize control from the opening games through his trademark deep cross-court hitting and powerful serve, forcing his opponent to cover a lot of ground and make errors from the baseline. Pablo CarreΓ±o Busta, who found good form in qualifying, will take up that challenge and attempt to drag Medvedev into extended, grinding rallies, using flat counter-hitting and varied pace with frequent drop shots to disrupt Medvedev's rhythm and push him away from his preferred position behind the baseline.
Total Games Prediction
Daniil Medvedev's recent matches rarely finish quickly. The total games count almost always goes past 20. Pablo CarreΓ±o Busta, despite his age, also tends to spend a lot of time on court thanks to a sticky defensive style.
β Editor's Pick
Both players arrive at this match with contrasting recent form: Daniil Medvedev is in excellent shape and on an impressive winning run, but Pablo CarreΓ±o Busta, despite a dip in results, has experience competing against top players. The match should be predominantly a baseline contest, with Medvedev holding a significant advantage on serve - though free points off his delivery are no guarantee of a swift victory. A key factor will be the physical condition of both players, who have had just two days since their last matches, with the Russian having spent part of that time travelling to Beijing. Without dismissing Medvedev's advantage as the world number six, our preference leans towards the overall duration of the match. The pick is Total Games - Over 20.5.
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Betting Tips: Daniil Medvedev - Pablo Carreno Busta
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in 6 of last 7 matches against Pablo Carreno-Busta.in 6 of last 7 Daniil Medvedev games against Pablo Carreno-Busta.Other predictions
