Rakhimova vs Alexandrova Prediction 28 October 2026
🔊 In the round of 16 in Tokyo, Kamilla Rakhimova takes on Ekaterina Alexandrova. Both players arrive in similar form, and each has strengths on hard courts. Their recent match statistics make for an interesting backdrop to this encounter.
Head-to-Head
📊 Kamilla Rakhimova won their only previous meeting.
Kamilla Rakhimova Player Overview
Rakhimova arrives in reasonable form, with six wins from her last ten matches. Recent results include defeats to Marie Bouzkova and Alexandra Sasnovich, and a win over Shiho Tsujiyoka in Tokyo qualifying. Notably, Kamilla lost in qualifying for this tournament, entered the main draw as a lucky loser, and received a first-round bye. Over this run of matches, Rakhimova has won just over half of her games and sets - 52% and 55% respectively. Her service games won stands at 56%, which has allowed her to hold her own even against higher-ranked opponents. Kamilla has also been held scoreless in only four of her ten matches, retaining the ability to compete throughout.
Match Results: Kamilla Rakhimova
Ekaterina Alexandrova Player Overview
Ekaterina Alexandrova holds a higher ranking and also has six wins from her last ten matches. She beat Ann Li in the first round in Tokyo (6-4, 6-4), though she has lost to Leila Fernandez and other players of that level. Alexandrova is notably more effective on serve - she holds 69% of her service games, and her overall points-won percentage is higher than Rakhimova's (58% against 54%). That said, she is not always consistent in converting her advantage: four defeats in ten matches suggest she is prone to dips even against lower-ranked opponents.
Match Results: Ekaterina Alexandrova
Key factors
- Kamilla Rakhimova has covered the +4.5 games handicap in her last 5 matches.
- Rakhimova has beaten Ekaterina Alexandrova in their head-to-head meeting.
- Both players have won 6 of their last 10 matches, suggesting comparable current form.
- Rakhimova has won 52% of games and 55% of sets in recent matches, which gives grounds to expect resistance.
- Alexandrova has not always converted her advantage consistently, losing 4 of her last 10 matches.
Expected scenario
Despite the ranking gap, Camilla Rakhimova has the stability across key metrics and the head-to-head experience against Alexandrova to stay competitive. The probability of a third set is rated above average - the scenario assumes a competitive match without clear dominance from either side. That fits the case for taking the underdog on a positive handicap.
⭐ Editor's Pick
Camilla Rakhimova has shown she can stay competitive against higher-ranked opponents, taking at least one set or keeping the game count close even in defeats. A head-to-head win over Alexandrova also adds confidence going into this match. The statistics bear it out - the underdog rarely loses heavily and can take her chances when both players are in similar form. The pick is Camilla Rakhimova - Games Handicap +4.5.
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Betting Tips: Kamilla Rakhimova - Ekaterina Alexandrova
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