Majchrzak vs Paul Prediction 28 July 2026
🔊 Kamil Majchrzak, ahead of his debut at the Washington 500, has won his first ATP title at 30 years old this season, and that came during the grass-court swing. Now, in the US capital, he will face Tommy Paul, who has plenty of experience on the blue American courts, including in Washington, where he has even reached the quarterfinals. However, in his last four attempts here, Paul has not managed to get past the second round. It will be interesting to see if Tommy can at least reach that stage this time.
Head-to-Head
📊 Head-to-head, it's level - one win apiece. Both matches were played in 2018 and 2019, though, so drawing conclusions from them would be a stretch.
Head-to-head statistics Majchrzak - Paul
Kamil Majchrzak Player Overview
Majchrzak arrives in good form - eight wins from his last ten, including a title in 's-Hertogenbosch during the grass swing. Then came Wimbledon, where he went out in a brutal five-set second-round match. That's pretty typical of him: he makes life difficult even for higher-ranked opponents and rarely gets blown out - just one lopsided loss in those ten matches. He wins around 76% of points on serve and takes 57% of games overall. His return game is worth noting too: 49% break-point conversion, built on years of clay-court experience - where most of his career matches have been played.
Match Results: Kamil Majchrzak
Tommy Paul Player Overview
Tommy Paul is ranked 24th - higher than his opponent - and has won seven of his last ten matches. At Wimbledon he went out a round later than Majchrzak, and before that reached the final of the London ATP 500. Paul is solid on serve, winning 77% of points there, backed by an average of seven aces per match. That said, his set win rate (69%) and games win rate (55%) don't give him a significant edge over Majchrzak - the Pole's numbers are at a similar level. Paul hasn't been winning by big margins lately, which makes a tight match here a real possibility.
Match Results: Tommy Paul
Key factors
- Majchrzak has covered the +3.5 handicap in 11 straight matches.
- Eight wins from his last ten.
- He takes 57% of games played.
- Set and serve-point numbers are comparable to his opponent's.
Expected scenario
The match should be competitive - the stats give Paul only a slight edge by ranking, not by the key metrics. A third set is possible. Each set could go narrowly in the favourite's direction. On hard courts you'd expect plenty of holds, but the Pole can pick up points on return too: Paul's ball-striking is nowhere near elite level.
⭐ Editorial prediction
Majchrzak's recent grass-court form holds up well against Paul's, the Pole even picked up a title in 's-Hertogenbosch. Games won percentage and hold rate, the numbers that matter most on fast surfaces, are roughly level with Paul's. The return game might actually give Majchrzak an edge. Paul is the better player and knows these courts. Still, backing the underdog here: Majchrzak handicap (+4.5).
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Betting Tips: Kamil Majchrzak - Tommy Paul
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