Damm vs Hurkacz Prediction 26 September 2026
🔊 In this ATP 250 round of 16 match in Chengdu, Martin Damm and Hubert Hurkacz bring two of the biggest serves in the draw. Between them in the first round they hit a combined 28 aces. They have already met earlier this year in an entertaining contest full of holds and a tie-break - won, it should be noted, by the young American. The question now is whether the former world number six from Poland can get his revenge.
Head-to-Head
📊 In their only previous meeting, Martin Damm won. The match took place in February 2026 at the ATP 250 in Montpellier. The American won by just three games (7-6, 6-4).
Martin Damm Player Overview
Martin Damm arrives at this stage with five wins from his last ten matches, pointing to inconsistent form. Going into the current tournament he had lost two in a row. That run ended in the first round in Chengdu with a comfortable win over Shintaro Mochizuki (6-1, 6-4), against whom he hit 13 aces. The serve is generally Damm's main weapon: his hold percentage stands at 83%, and he averages 12 aces per match. His matches average 24.5 games, of which he wins just over half (51%). His set-winning percentage is similarly close, at 54%.
Match Results: Martin Damm
Hubert Hurkacz Player Overview
Hubert Hurkacz is in good form, winning seven of his last ten matches. That run includes a first-round win over Alexander Shevchenko in Chengdu (6-3, 7-6), in which the Pole hit an impressive 15 aces. Before that, Hurkacz won a Challenger title in Cancun, and at the US Open he lost in the second round to eventual finalist Ben Shelton, taking one set. Statistically, his first-serve percentage stands out at 65%, and he is holding serve in 77% of his service games. His set-winning rate is a strong 64%, and he has not been bagelled in any of his last ten matches. He has also been particularly strong in opening sets, winning the first set in 12 of 14 matches.
Match Results: Hubert Hurkacz
Key factors
- Both players rely heavily on a powerful serve.
- Hubert Hurkacz has not lost without winning a set in his last ten matches.
- Hurkacz makes the stronger start in matches, taking the first set in 12 of his last 14.
Expected scenario
The match looks set to feature a slight edge for Hubert Hurkacz, with both players holding serve comfortably. The most likely scenario is two tight sets, potentially decided by tie-breaks - as was the case in the Pole's first-round match and in the only previous meeting between the two. Both players hit with considerable power and regularly pick up easy points through aces, so a high number of holds is to be expected.
⭐ Editor's Pick
This match looks set to be a classic serve-dominated contest on fast hard courts, with tight set endings and a high probability of tie-breaks. Given the enormous physical presence of the American - standing 203 cm - and the Pole's traditionally powerful serve, expect dominance on serve, with breaks of serve at a premium. Although Hubert Hurkacz is the clear favourite, Martin Damm has already beaten him on hard courts this season. A straightforward win for the European against the left-handed American looks unlikely here. Our pick: Damm - Games Handicap +3.5.
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Betting Tips: Martin Damm - Hubert Hurkacz
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