Tabilo vs Mannarino Prediction 25 September 2026
🔊 Defending ATP 250 Chengdu champion Alejandro Tabilo is in action to protect his ranking points. In the second round he faces former quarter-finalist Adrian Mannarino. The 38-year-old Frenchman opened his campaign with an upset, beating 2024 title-holder Juncheng Shang. That makes it all the more interesting to see whether he can trouble the third seed, particularly given that Tabilo is currently on a two-match losing streak.
Head-to-Head
📊 Alejandro Tabilo and Adrian Mannarino have never previously met.
Alejandro Tabilo Player Overview
Alejandro Tabilo goes into this match having won five of his last ten matches. On hard courts he holds serve consistently, with a hold percentage of 83%. His most recent Grand Slam singles appearance was the US Open, where he beat Alexei Popyrin before losing to Alexander Zverev. Ahead of Chengdu, the Chilean played in the Davis Cup, where he again lost to Daniel Merida Aguilar. In terms of games won percentage, Tabilo is at a similar level to his upcoming opponent, though it is worth noting that the Chilean has faced stronger opposition - he tends to go deep in major tournaments rather than playing Challengers.
Match Results: Alejandro Tabilo
Adrian Mannarino Player Overview
Adrian Mannarino has won four of his last ten matches and has had notable difficulty winning games against higher-ranked opponents. The average match length in his recent fixtures is 23.4 games, and his set-winning percentage is no higher than 38. Mannarino has frequently lost sets to a bagel - six such instances were recorded across those ten matches. His hold percentage is also lower than Tabilo's: 80% with a first-serve percentage of 58%. His return game is no more effective - he converts just 32% of break points. Taken together, these factors weigh primarily on Mannarino's scoring output: in 6 of his last 7 matches he won fewer than 12 games.
Match Results: Adrian Mannarino
Key factors
- Adrian Mannarino won fewer than 12.5 games in 6 of his last 7 matches.
- Matches involving the Frenchman have averaged 23.4 games.
- Alejandro Tabilo has one more win than Mannarino across their previous ten meetings (5 against 4).
Expected scenario
The advantage probably lies with Alejandro Tabilo, given his greater consistency on serve and slightly better current form. Adrian Mannarino has a tendency to accumulate relatively few games even when matches are closely contested. In a battle between two left-handers, there will likely be plenty of holds of serve, though it seems unlikely that the 38-year-old Mannarino can sustain Tabilo's pace for long, particularly given his own high rate of unforced errors.
⭐ Editor's Pick
Alejandro Tabilo's recent results are slightly better than Adrian Mannarino's: he simply has more wins, and at higher-level tournaments. Going into Chengdu, the Frenchman had won just one of his last six matches - not even a Challenger in Rennes helped, where Adrian lost in the first round. The expected pattern of this match involves Tabilo controlling proceedings, with little to suggest Mannarino will accumulate games freely: Alejandro's powerful serve should limit Adrian's ability to win games consistently. The pick is Mannarino - Player Total Games - Under 12.5.
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Betting Tips: Alejandro Tabilo - Adrian Mannarino
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