Basilashvili vs Tsitsipas Prediction 24 October 2026
🔊 The ATP 250 semi-final in Almaty will be Nikoloz Basilashvili's second semi-final on the ATP Tour in under two months. He faces Stefanos Tsitsipas, who has not reached this stage on hard courts since February 2025, when he won the title in Dubai - on outdoor hard courts. The two have not met in over four years, but before that they consistently produced matches packed with long exchanges of games. That makes it all the more interesting to see how entertaining this match will be, given the considerable gap between them in ranking and odds.
Head-to-Head
📊 Stefanos Tsitsipas leads the head-to-head against Nikoloz Basilashvili, winning 3 of their 4 meetings. That said, all three completed matches went to multiple sets and lasted at least 27 games.
Head-to-head statistics Basilashvili - Tsitsipas
Nikoloz Basilashvili Player Overview
Nikoloz Basilashvili arrives at the semi-final in excellent form, having won eight of his last ten matches. During that run he has not lost a match 0-2 in sets - excluding one walkover - and has won 58% of games played. His campaign in Almaty began in qualifying, which he came through without dropping a set, and that run continued in the main draw with wins over Marin Cilic (6-2, 7-5), Facundo Diaz Acosta (6-2, 6-4) and Adrian Mannarino (6-3, 6-1). Basilashvili plays an uncompromisingly aggressive game and has no trouble taking on top-ranked opponents, pushing them deep with heavy groundstrokes aimed at the baseline. His weakness is first-serve accuracy, at 59%.
Match Results: Nikoloz Basilashvili
Stefanos Tsitsipas Player Overview
Stefanos Tsitsipas has also been in confident form - the same number of wins over his last ten matches, with just one defeat and without dropping a set in that loss. During the Asian swing he reached the round of 16 at the ATP 500 in Tokyo and the Masters 1000 in Shanghai. At the current tournament in Almaty he has beaten Aleksandar Kovacevic (7-6, 3-6, 6-3), Mikhail Kukushkin (6-1, 6-2) and James Duckworth (6-3, 6-4). One notable difference: his games-won percentage is slightly lower than Basilashvili's (56%), though Tsitsipas holds serve at a higher rate (85%) and lands his first serve in 67% of the time. Tsitsipas is an all-court player whose game travels well across surfaces. He balances attack and defence effectively and is remarkably mobile for someone standing 193 cm tall.
Match Results: Stefanos Tsitsipas
Key factors
- Nikoloz Basilashvili won more than 11.5 games in 14 of his last 15 matches.
- In his last ten matches, Nikoloz Basilashvili won eight times and did not lose without taking a set.
- Nikoloz Basilashvili has won 58% of games played; Stefanos Tsitsipas has won 56%.
Expected scenario
The match should be competitive: both players are in good form and rarely lose heavily even against top-ranked opponents. A key factor will be Nikoloz Basilashvili's consistency - he has yet to drop a set in Almaty, but has already played five matches including qualifying. He has a history of injury throughout his career, and his aggressive style tends to produce a high rate of unforced errors, which increases with fatigue. That said, there is little doubt the Georgian can push Stefanos Tsitsipas hard, despite the considerable ranking gap between them.
Total Games Prediction
Nikoloz Basilashvili has won more than 11.5 games in 14 of his last 15 matches. This consistent trend is particularly relevant ahead of the upcoming semi-final: in almost all his recent matches Basilashvili has reached double figures in games even against high-level opponents, and over his last ten matches he has not lost a single one without taking at least a set.
⭐ Editor's Pick
Both players arrive at the semi-finals in good form across the Asian swing and during this tournament, but Nikoloz Basilashvili's consistently high game counts stand out in particular. The Georgian regularly reaches double figures in games won regardless of the match result, and has not lost 0-2 in sets even against top opponents. Stefanos Tsitsipas had problems in the first round in Almaty against a strong-serving Kovacevic, so difficulties could arise here too. Against that backdrop, there is a case for backing the underdog, or at least for expecting him to extend the match. The pick is Total Games - Over 21.5.
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Betting Tips: Nikoloz Basilashvili - Stefanos Tsitsipas
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