Bublik vs Khachanov Prediction 23 October 2026
🔊 Karen Khachanov saved five match points against Tomáš Macháč to reach the quarter-finals of the ATP 250 in Almaty, where he will face Alexander Bublik. Kazakhstan's top-ranked player, unlike his upcoming opponent, has not played a single point in the tournament - seeded high enough to start in the second round, he received a walkover when his opponent Fabian Marozsan withdrew. Bublik is the favourite, but has no singles experience at this event, whereas Khachanov won the title here in 2024. We'll see whether that background can help the Russian get close to repeating his best result.
Head-to-Head
📊 On the ATP Tour, the two players have met twice. Their head-to-head record is level at 1-1. Neither match finished in fewer than 20 games.
Head-to-head statistics Bublik - Khachanov
Alexander Bublik Player Overview
Alexander Bublik ended the Asian swing with an even record (2-2). He made a poor start to that stretch, losing in the first round of the Beijing 500, then reached the round of 16 at the Shanghai 1000, where he lost a tight three-setter to Alexander Zverev (7-6, 4-6, 7-6). In Almaty, Bublik benefited from Fabian Marozsan's withdrawal in the second round, so the quarter-final will be his first singles match in the tournament. His main weapon is his serve: he regularly hits double-digit aces and holds 82% of his service games. His return game is not a strength, and he tends to win through high scoring, which stretches matches involving him to an average of 28.1 games.
Match Results: Alexander Bublik
Karen Khachanov Player Overview
Like his upcoming opponent, Karen Khachanov played two tournaments on the Asian swing but performed slightly better: he reached the quarter-finals in Beijing and went out at the same round of 16 stage in Shanghai. In Almaty, Khachanov has already played two matches, comfortably beating Rei Sakamoto in the first round (6-2, 6-4), then overcoming Tomáš Macháč in a three-set thriller decided by a tie-break in the third (6-2, 4-6, 7-6). Khachanov plays a power game both on serve, where he holds around 80% of his service games, and during rallies, where he is unusually mobile for someone standing 198 cm tall. He may not produce as many aces as Bublik, but his ball strikes with enough pace to draw unforced errors from opponents on return.
Match Results: Karen Khachanov
Key factors
- Both players have a similar hold percentage (around 80%).
- Bublik hits more winners, but Khachanov makes fewer errors.
- Their head-to-head record is level at 1-1, and neither match finished in fewer than 20 games.
Expected scenario
From the opening games, Alexander Bublik will look to disrupt Karen Khachanov's rhythm through aggressive net approaches and a varied technical arsenal that includes frequent drop shots. The more disciplined Khachanov will rely on extended baseline exchanges, methodically targeting his opponent's backhand with a heavy forehand. Numerous holds of serve are expected, with breaks at a minimum, which should stretch the match long enough to push the total over one of the higher lines.
⭐ Editor's Pick
This match looks set to be a power-hitting affair with plenty of aces and serve-dominated exchanges. Alexander Bublik is the logical favourite on the odds, given his higher ranking and fresher legs, but his lack of match practice in Almaty could count against him. Karen Khachanov effectively rose from the ashes with a gutsy win over Tomáš Macháč and will likely be riding an emotional high. He also had a more consistent run through the Asian swing, and his US Open semi-final is still recent. We think the Russian underdog can push this to a very competitive contest, resulting in a tight scoreline and a Total Games - Over 22.5.
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