Sonego vs Kopriva Prediction 24 August 2026
🔊 In Winston-Salem, Lorenzo Sonego arrives ranked 88th, even though a year and a half ago he was playing the quarterfinal of the Australian Championship - the Italian hasn't had a season this poor in seven years. His opponent will be Vit Kopriva: this spring the 29-year-old Czech climbed to 55th, his career-best ranking, and currently sits above his opponent in the rankings. They've swapped positions - let's see if their games have swapped too.
Head-to-Head
📊 Lorenzo Sonego and Vit Kopriva have met once. In 2025, on the clay-court tournament in Marrakech, the Czech won in three sets (6:2; 5:7; 6:4). The surface was different there, so carrying that result over directly to a hard court is not advisable.
Lorenzo Sonego Player Overview
Lorenzo Sonego is having a tough season, 18 wins and 23 losses, but on hard courts his main weapon hasn't gone anywhere. The Italian holds 83% of his service games, lands two out of three first serves and wins almost three out of four points behind his first serve - by far the best serve in this pair. His return game is average, 20% of opponent's service games broken, so Sonego's matches are often decided by a handful of rallies. In Cincinnati this month he won a round and lost only to a player inside the top thirty.
Match Results: Lorenzo Sonego
Vit Kopriva Player Overview
Vit Kopriva has climbed into the top 80 on the back of clay, and on hard courts that shows immediately. On fast surfaces the Czech has 13 wins and 15 losses, a serve hold rate of 73%, and just 6% aces. Particularly telling is his points-won-on-first-serve percentage: 66% against his opponent's 74% - a gap of a full eight points. Kopriva builds his game around the return, and here he genuinely has the edge over the Italian, 22% against 20%, but on fast courts that kind of advantage is usually not enough.
Match Results: Vit Kopriva
Key factors
- On hard courts, Sonego holds 83% of his service games, Kopriva - 73%.
- On first serve, the Italian wins 74% of points, the Czech - 66%.
- On return, Kopriva has the edge: 22% against 20%.
- On hard courts over the past year, Sonego has 11 wins and 12 losses, Kopriva has won 13 and lost 15.
- Kopriva spent last week at a Challenger in Mexico, Sonego had eight days of rest.
Expected scenario
A ten-point difference in serve hold rate is a significant gap. Kopriva drops his serve roughly every fourth game, Sonego every sixth, and on fast hard courts that gap only grows: the Italian's serve works better the faster the surface.
The Czech's chance lies in the return and in Sonego's own inconsistency: his season has been frankly poor, and he may lack confidence in the crucial games. But to take advantage of that, Kopriva needs to hold his own serve, and at 73% that is the hardest part of the task.
⭐ Editor's Prediction
The ranking is misleading here. Kopriva is ranked higher, but he built those points on clay, and on hard court the serve gap between these two is enormous: 83% hold rate versus 73%, and 74% of points won on first serve versus 66%. Ten percentage points translates to roughly one and a half extra breaks per match in the Italian's favor.
Add the schedule. Kopriva played last week at a challenger in Mexico and flew in from there, while Sonego hasn't been on court for eight days and has been preparing specifically for hard court. The only head-to-head meeting was on clay in Marrakech - the Czech was genuinely the better player there, but that's a different surface and a different story. Our prediction: Sonego to win.
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