Griekspoor vs Shapovalov Prediction 24 September 2026
🔊 One of the most intriguing first-round matches at the ATP 250 in Chengdu features two players ranked in the fifties - Tallon Griekspoor and Denis Shapovalov. The Canadian is just five places above the Dutchman in the rankings, and Shapovalov's best result at this tournament is a semi-final. That run came back in 2019, however, and Denis has not appeared on the Chinese courts since. Griekspoor, by contrast, reached the second round here last year. It makes for an interesting question as to who has the better chance of matching their best performance at this event.
Head-to-Head
📊 In head-to-head meetings between Tallon Griekspoor and Denis Shapovalov, the record is level at one win apiece. Both matches were played on clay and each went to three sets.
Head-to-head statistics Griekspoor - Shapovalov
Tallon Griekspoor Player Overview
Tallon Griekspoor arrives at this tournament after a difficult run, winning four of his last ten matches. He flew to Chengdu straight from the Davis Cup, where he beat Nicolás Mejia - though before that he lost in the first round of the US Open. Griekspoor holds serve in 83% of his service games, which keeps him competitive even when his overall form is inconsistent. He has a powerful serve and averages 9.8 aces per match, though his double-fault rate averages 5% - not unusual on the men's tour. Worth noting is that only two of his six defeats over the last ten matches were bagel sets; he loses fairly often, but rarely gets blown off the court.
Match Results: Tallon Griekspoor
Denis Shapovalov Player Overview
Denis Shapovalov has won five of his last ten matches, which represents slightly better consistency than his opponent. His most recent tournament was the US Open, where he reached the third round before losing to eventual finalist Ben Shelton. Shapovalov holds serve in 73% of service games - below Griekspoor's figure - but his rally win rate is higher, at 52%. He also wins a greater share of games overall than the Dutchman, at 53%. These numbers could be even better were it not for his high error rate, reflected in an 11% double-fault rate.
Match Results: Denis Shapovalov
Key factors
- Tallon Griekspoor has covered the handicap (+1.5) in 6 of his last 7 matches.
- The head-to-head record is level at one win each.
- Both players have a comparable average games-won percentage.
Expected scenario
The match looks set to be a competitive one: neither player holds a clear edge in form, head-to-head record or key serving metrics. Both first-round Chengdu participants are capable of making each set competitive, so a scenario where the final margin is no more than two or three games between them appears most likely.
⭐ Editor's Pick
This looks like a match without a clear dominant side: both players have similar games-won figures and have split their head-to-head meetings. Tallon Griekspoor had a less consistent run through the summer hard-court swing, but rarely lost without a fight, as reflected in his low number of bagel defeats. He also seldom loses by a wide margin, as his impressive run of covering the plus handicap shows. The ranking gap between the two is minimal, pointing to a tight contest. In these circumstances, Griekspoor - Games Handicap +3.5 may well come in.
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Betting Tips: Tallon Griekspoor - Denis Shapovalov
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