Baez vs Brooksby Prediction 23 September 2026
🔊 In the first round of the ATP 250 in Chengdu, Sebastian Baez and Jenson Brooksby meet for the third time this season. Both players arrive at this opening tournament on two-match losing streaks and are eager to end them. For the American, the match carries extra significance - it is a chance to get off the mark in his head-to-head record against the Argentine. The bookmakers rate his chances highly and have him as the favourite in the odds.
Head-to-Head
📊 Sebastian Baez has won both of his previous meetings with Jenson Brooksby. Both matches took place this season on different surfaces, and this will be their second encounter on hard court.
Head-to-head statistics Baez - Brooksby
Sebastian Baez Player Overview
Sebastian Baez arrives at the ATP 250 in Chengdu after a difficult stretch - six wins from his last ten matches, with the North American hard-court swing ending in two consecutive defeats and a first-round exit at the US Open. Overall, Baez wins around half of all games (50%) and takes 64% of sets. On serve, he holds at 73%, which helps him control the majority of his matches. That said, at 170 cm, imposing his own pace on a match is far from straightforward.
Match Results: Sebastian Baez
Jenson Brooksby Player Overview
Jenson Brooksby has won five and lost five of his last ten matches, arriving at the upcoming tournament on a similarly poor run to his next opponent. It is not hard to guess that the US Open ended just as early for the American. His games-won percentage is comparable to Baez's - averaging 51% - and he holds serve at 75%. His sets-won percentage, however, is noticeably lower than the Argentine's, at just 50%. Notably, across those ten matches he avoided being bagelled in a set only once.
Match Results: Jenson Brooksby
Key factors
- Jenson Brooksby has not won more than 12.5 games in nine matches in a row.
- Brooksby has won just 51% of games in his last ten matches.
- Sebastián Báez leads their head-to-head 2-0.
- When Brooksby loses, he often does so without winning a set.
Expected scenario
Sebastian Baez will look to cancel out his opponent's 18 cm height advantage from the start, using his speed, aggressive forehand and heavy topspin to push Jenson Brooksby onto the back foot. Brooksby, known for his unorthodox style and varied rhythm, will look to use drop shots and slice to disrupt Baez's preferred tempo and draw him into extended rallies.
Total Games Prediction
Brooksby regularly falls short of 12.5 games won, even when the breakdown of service games held and broken is relatively even. This is particularly evident in his straight-sets losses over his last ten matches - 4 out of 5.
⭐ Editor's Pick
Sebastian Baez's advantage is supported both by head-to-head results and recent statistics - he loses less often, and in half of their four meetings he took at least a set. Jenson Brooksby, by contrast, lacks consistency in games won, including against lower-ranked opponents. Against that backdrop, the Argentine's ranking of 51 looks well out of the American's reach. That makes his status as betting favourite all the more surprising. We suggest taking advantage of that with Baez - Games Handicap +3.5.
No comments
Betting Tips: Sebastian Baez - Jenson Brooksby
.svg)
Other predictions
