Mannarino vs Rublev Prediction 21 October 2026
🔊 Andrey Rublev, seeded fourth, enters the ATP 250 in Almaty at the second round, where he faces Adrian Mannarino. It is hard to imagine a more favourable opponent for the Russian, as he leads their head-to-head with four consecutive wins. Away from that matchup, Rublev has lost his last two matches on the ATP Tour. We will see whether he can end that run at a tournament he is playing for the first time.
Head-to-Head
📊 Andrey Rublev leads the head-to-head record, having won 5 of their 6 meetings. Notably, three of those matches were played on indoor hard courts, where the head-to-head stands at 2-1 in the Russian's favour.
Head-to-head statistics Mannarino - Rublev
Adrian Mannarino Player Overview
Adrian Mannarino has won six of his last ten matches, suggesting reasonably consistent form. In his opening match at the current tournament he beat Aleksandar Vukic, though not without difficulty, 7-6, 4-6, 6-3. Long matches are nothing unusual for the Frenchman: his average match length is 22.2 games, roughly half of which he wins, as is also the case with sets. On serve, Mannarino wins 76% of points, and his first-serve percentage stands at 68%. His most distinctive weapon, however, is his return: the low string tension on his racket allows him to send the ball back at close to the same pace it arrives.
Match Results: Adrian Mannarino
Andrey Rublev Player Overview
Andrey Rublev has also won 6 of his last 10 matches. His game is built around a powerful serve with a high ace count - averaging more than 11 per match - and an 80% hold rate on a first-serve percentage of 64%. The average total games in his matches is notably higher than his upcoming opponent's figure, at close to 30, which points to a tendency for lengthy matches regardless of the opponent's level. During the Asian swing, he reached the final of the ATP 250 in Hangzhou and the quarter-finals of the ATP 500 in Beijing. At the Shanghai Masters, however, Rublev struggled and lost in the opening round, extending his current losing streak to two matches.
Match Results: Andrey Rublev
Key factors
- Andrey Rublev's matches average 29.3 games.
- Adrian Mannarino's matches average 22.2 games.
- In six head-to-head meetings, Andrey Rublev has won five, though Mannarino's only win came on an indoor court.
- Both players have won six of their last ten matches, but Rublev is on a two-match losing streak.
Expected scenario
Both players have been scoring heavily in their recent matches and are closely matched across the key metrics, which gives this match every reason to go the distance. Their head-to-head record on indoor courts also suggests a straight-sets result is far from certain. On top of that, Mannarino has already adjusted to the courts in Almaty, while Rublev still has to work to end his poor run on tour.
⭐ Editor's Pick
Both players are in similar form during the current Asian swing, each winning six of their last ten matches. Andrey Rublev has a final in Hangzhou to his name, but Adrian Mannarino can point to a quarter-final in Chengdu and a third-round run in Shanghai, where the Russian went out in the opening round. Despite Rublev's commanding head-to-head record overall, the picture is less clear-cut on indoor hard courts. We're backing the underdog, who has found his footing on these courts and made a positive start in Almaty. The pick is Total Games - Over 20.5.
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