Chwalinska vs Kartal Prediction 18 October 2026
π For the first time since the Wuhan tournament was founded in 2014, the final will feature two players ranked outside the top 20 - Maja Chwalinska and Sonay Kartal. The British player, ranked 170th in the WTA, will also be the lowest-ranked player in the history of any WTA 1000 event. Both players produced notable upsets along the way, beating ΕwiΔ tek, JoviΔ, Svitolina and Bencic. We'll see whose experience proves enough to claim a first WTA 1000 title.
Head-to-Head
π Maja Chwalinska and Sonay Kartal have no previous meetings on record.
Maja Chwalinska Player Overview
Maja Chwalinska is in excellent form, winning eight of her last ten matches. Her autumn began with a run to the semi-finals of the Singapore 500, though after a remarkable Roland Garros - where she reached the final - she had not gone beyond the second round at any main-tour event. In Wuhan she produced several notable upsets against BouzkovΓ‘ (1-6, 6-1, 6-1), JoviΔ (6-4, 6-1) and ΕwiΔ tek (7-5, 6-1), entering each of those matches as the underdog.
On average, Chwalinska wins 62% of games and 74% of sets. Her first-serve percentage is 75%, and she holds her own service games at a rate of 63%. Standing at just 165 cm and without a particularly powerful shot, she builds her game on intelligence, touch and constant changes of rhythm. She also has the advantage of being left-handed - an advantage she uses not for flat, repetitive hitting, but by mixing heavy topspin with high bounce and low sliced shots, forcing opponents to adjust repeatedly and make errors.
Match Results: Maja Chwalinska
Sonay Kartal Player Overview
Sonay Kartal spent more than six months recovering from a stress fracture of the spine. She returned to the tour just in time for the Asian swing, reaching the third round in Beijing. She then produced a remarkable run in Wuhan, beating a succession of former and current top players - Belinda Bencic (6-0, 7-5), Jasmine Paolini (6-2, 6-0), Elina Svitolina (6-2, 2-6, 6-4) and Jelena Ostapenko (7-6, 7-6).
Kartal wins around 59% of games and holds a high set-winning rate of 75%. She holds serve in 64% of service games, and her first-serve percentage stands at 66%. Kartal is 2 cm shorter than her upcoming opponent, but is notably athletic. Her main weapon is a powerful forehand, which she strikes with high speed and heavy topspin, taking the ball on the rise and driving it deep to push opponents behind the baseline.
Match Results: Sonay Kartal
Key factors
- Maja Chwalinska has covered the +1.5 handicap in 9 of her last 10 matches.
- Both players have won 6 of their last 7 matches, suggesting comparable form.
- The average number of games per match for both players is 18.9, pointing to lengthy encounters.
Expected scenario
Both players are in good enough form to make this a competitive final, with neither holding a clear advantage. Sonay Kartal will look to take control from the opening games, trying to overpower her opponent with heavy forehands and deep baseline hitting. The crafty and more varied left-hander Maja Chwalinska will deliberately concede the baseline, aiming to disrupt the British player's power-based rhythm with disguised drop shots, heavy slices and unexpected forays to the net.
β Editor's Pick
Both finalists are in good form, as shown by their runs of upsets over past and present top players, and their key metrics are closely matched. The match looks set to pit the British player's power-based game against the Polish player's more flexible approach, with her varied technical arsenal likely to be used to disrupt the favourite's rhythm.
Maja Chwalinska may benefit from a fresher pair of legs: the match against ΕwiΔ tek turned out to be unexpectedly straightforward after her higher-ranked compatriot was clearly not at her physical best - she was in visible pain during a medical timeout between sets and played the second set with a bandaged leg. Sonay Kartal had to come through two intense tie-breaks, and the effects of a recent back injury may also be a factor. Given all that, a close scoreline with no clear advantage for either player seems the most likely outcome. The pick is Chwalinska - Games Handicap +3.5.
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Betting Tips: Maja Chwalinska - Sonay Kartal
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