Jodar vs Medvedev Prediction 17 October 2026
🔊 Daniil Medvedev became only the fourth player, after Djokovic, Federer and Murray, to reach the Shanghai Masters quarter-finals in at least three consecutive years. He now faces Rafael Jodar in the semi-finals - the youngest player to reach the last four in the tournament's history. To get there, Jodar came from behind in four matches in a row, having dropped the first set in every match since the opening round. The question is whether he can do the same against the Russian world number six, who will be the highest-ranked opponent Jodar has faced on his run in Shanghai.
Head-to-Head
📊 Rafael Jodar and Daniil Medvedev have no previous meetings on record.
Rafael Jodar Player Overview
Rafael Jodar reaches the semi-final on the back of seven wins from his last ten matches, reflecting solid form on the hard-court stretch of the season. His run in Shanghai has required considerable resilience: victories over Thiago Agustin Tirante, Jiří Lehečka, Botic Van De Zandschulp and Casper Ruud all came in three sets after dropping the first. His matches have averaged 23.6 games, pointing to his ability to stay competitive over longer contests. On serve, Jodar holds 73% of his service games, and his overall share of games won - including on return - reaches 52%. His return game is close to exemplary, though his serve is not always effective, despite a height of 191 cm.
Match Results: Rafael Jodar
Daniil Medvedev Player Overview
Daniil Medvedev reaches the semi-final on the back of an impressive run of results through the Asian swing, which brought him the ATP 250 title in Hangzhou and a semi-final place at the Beijing 500 - a run ended early by a walkover defeat. In Shanghai he has beaten Jan-Lennard Struff (4-6, 6-4, 6-3), Dalibor Svrcina (6-2, 6-3), Stefanos Tsitsipas (6-4, 7-5) and Tommy Paul (6-3, 1-6, 6-3). Medvedev is winning 79% of service points and converting 63% of first serves, which ranks among the best figures of any remaining player in the draw, with the possible exception of Alexander Zverev. His matches are averaging 22.4 games, and he has not lost a completed match 0-2 in sets since the US Open.
Match Results: Daniil Medvedev
Key factors
- Rafael Jodar has covered the handicap (+1.5) in 6 of his last 7 matches.
- In their last ten matches respectively, Rafael Jodar has won seven times and Medvedev nine.
- The average number of games per match is 23.6 for Jodar and 22.4 for Medvedev.
Expected scenario
Medvedev is the betting favourite on the back of outstanding form during the Asian swing, where he has not lost a completed match. That said, Rafael Jodar's record and competitive character have repeatedly allowed him to turn difficult matches around. Medvedev may hold an edge in the key moments, but a substantial gap on the scoreboard seems unlikely. With both players favouring a defensive baseline game, the contest should come down to physical and mental endurance.
⭐ Editor's Pick
Rafael Jodar's recent form suggests he can hold his own against top-ranked opponents - in 6 of his last 7 matches the margin has been no greater than two games. Despite Daniil Medvedev's clear advantages in ranking and serving consistency, the statistics suggest a large gap between the two is unlikely. The second set against Tommy Paul showed that Medvedev is not immune to dips in level and would sooner drop a set to love than expend energy mounting a comeback within a single stretch of play. Jodar may be able to exploit that tendency and keep the deficit within his usual range. Current odds make it worth raising the bar slightly for the underdog: Jodar - Games Handicap +3.5.
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Betting Tips: Rafael Jodar - Daniil Medvedev
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