Medvedev vs Paul Prediction 16 October 2026
🔊 Having beaten Stefanos Tsitsipas in Wuhan, Daniil Medvedev claimed his 44th win of the season, drawing level with world number one Jannik Sinner on that count. His next opponent, Tommy Paul, also reached a personal milestone, completing a full set of quarter-finals at all six hard-court Masters events on tour. That said, going further will be a tall order for the American, as he has yet to beat Medvedev on hard courts.
Head-to-Head
📊 Daniil Medvedev has won 4 of their 5 head-to-head meetings with Tommy Paul. Paul's only win came on clay at the Rome Masters 1000 in 2024.
Head-to-head statistics Medvedev - Paul
Daniil Medvedev Player Overview
Daniil Medvedev arrives at the quarter-final in near-perfect form. During the current Asian swing he won the ATP 250 title in Hangzhou and lost just one match - a retirement in the semi-finals of the 500 event in Beijing. In Shanghai he has beaten Jan-Lennard Struff, Dalibor Svrcina and Stefanos Tsitsipas, dropping only one set across his last two matches; his overall win rate over ten matches stands at an impressive 91%. On serve, Medvedev wins 79% of service points and holds around 60% of all games. His double-fault rate is low for a packed autumn schedule at 5%, and his average of 13.1 aces per match is well above the tour average.
Match Results: Daniil Medvedev
Tommy Paul Player Overview
Tommy Paul has been in decent form - seven wins from his last ten matches - but that run looks less impressive compared with his upcoming opponent. The Asian swing started poorly for the American, with a first-round exit at the Tokyo 500. At the current tournament he has beaten Adolfo Daniel Vallejo, Valentin Vacherot and Zizou Bergs, all without dropping a set, though his overall set-winning rate is modest compared with Medvedev's figures: just 60%. On serve, Paul also trails the Russian, holding around 75% of his service games and averaging seven aces per match. The one area where Tommy can compete with the world No. 6 is on return, where he converts more than half of his break-point opportunities - 52%.
Match Results: Tommy Paul
Key factors
- Daniil Medvedev has won 9 of his last 10 matches and claimed the ATP 250 title in Hangzhou.
- In 7 of his last 8 matches, the total games have been under 22.5.
- Medvedev has won 91% of sets and 60% of games over his last ten matches.
- His serve statistics are stronger than his opponent's.
Expected scenario
Medvedev is in excellent form and has consistently been wrapping up matches quickly - straight-sets wins have been the norm throughout his Asian swing this season. Tommy Paul can perhaps compete with the Russian on return, though even there Medvedev's numbers may not stand out, his quality is distinctive: Daniil takes the ball very deep on return, which minimises errors, particularly against a serve that is far from the most powerful on tour.
⭐ Editor's Pick
Daniil Medvedev is currently in some of the best form on tour: impressive winning streaks, no exits before the semi-finals at the two previous tournaments on the Asian swing, a high percentage of sets won, and control on his own serve - all of which points to a confident passage through this round without being drawn into a prolonged match. Against Tommy Paul, Medvedev holds the advantage both in head-to-head record, including on hard courts, and in overall statistics, with the exception of return games - though his return, while not outstanding, has its own distinctive qualities. The main prediction is a confident win for the Russian with a comfortable margin on the scoreboard. The pick is Medvedev - Games Handicap -2.5.
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Betting Tips: Daniil Medvedev - Tommy Paul
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