Hurkacz vs Davidovich Fokina Prediction 13 October 2026
🔊 Two of the biggest upset-makers at the Shanghai Masters, Hubert Hurkacz and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - who knocked out Novak Djokovic and Frances Tiafoe respectively - meet in the round of 16. Both players arrive in strong form this autumn and have already faced each other in the final of an ATP 250 event in Chengdu, where the Spaniard won. That makes it all the more interesting to see whether the Pole can get his revenge.
Head-to-Head
📊 Alejandro Davidovich Fokina leads the head-to-head record with five wins from seven matches. However, none of those meetings ended in fewer than 20 games.
Head-to-head statistics Hurkacz - Davidovich Fokina
Hubert Hurkacz Player Overview
Hubert Hurkacz arrives at this stage in strong form: eight wins from his last ten matches, with only two defeats, one of which came against his upcoming opponent in the ATP 250 final in Chengdu. In Shanghai he has beaten James Duckworth, Novak Djokovic and Yi Zhou, dropping just one set - to Zhou. On serve he has been reliable, holding more than 80% of his service games, with a first-serve percentage of 69%. He averages more than 12 aces per match, which makes returning difficult even for elite counterpunchers. Across ten matches he has won close to three-quarters of his sets and converts 51% of his break points. Over that same stretch he has won four matches in straight sets.
Match Results: Hubert Hurkacz
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Player Overview
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has been in solid form, winning seven of his last ten matches, with recent victories over Jenson Brooksby and Frances Tiafoe in Shanghai - the latter a three-set thriller with tie-breaks in the first and deciding sets. He lands just under 70% of first serves and holds at a high rate of 80%. His average aces per match are lower than Hurkacz's, though he wins two thirds of his sets. Worth noting is the absence of heavy defeats: in his last ten matches he has not lost a single one 0-2 in sets. Davidovich Fokina also converts over 40% of his break points.
Match Results: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Key factors
- Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has won 6 of his last 7 matches.
- Alejandro Davidovich Fokina leads the head-to-head record 5-2.
- Their most recent meeting, in the Chengdu final, ended in a 2-0 win for Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.
- Both players have strong games and sets won figures, suggesting the match could be closely contested.
Expected scenario
The match looks competitive: both players are in good form and regularly play high-game-count matches. The head-to-head advantage lies with Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, who again got the better of Hubert Hurkacz at the recent ATP 250 event in Chengdu, though the Pole pushed him through 23 games. Such extended battles between the two are a recurring pattern - none of their previous meetings has finished in fewer than 20 games.
Match Result Prediction
Davidovich Fokina has been in excellent form heading into this round and has consistently shown his quality across a run of strong results against opponents of varying levels. Hubert Hurkacz produced some notable upsets during the Asian swing, but the Spaniard has historically been a very difficult opponent for him, judging by their head-to-head record.
⭐ Editor's Pick
Both players arrive at this match on the back of a good run of results, but the head-to-head advantage lies with Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - he has won 5 of their 7 meetings and recently beat Hubert Hurkacz in the ATP 250 final in Chengdu. That said, none of those matches against the Pole has been straightforward for the Spaniard: high game totals have been the norm, with sets going back and forth or tie-breaks deciding things. Davidovich Fokina's previous round against Tiafoe was extremely intense, so he may feel the physical effects here. At current odds it is very difficult to identify a clear favourite, so we suggest going with Total Games - Over 22.5, a line that came in during their most recent meeting as well.
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Betting Tips: Hubert Hurkacz - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
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