Berrettini vs Nakashima Prediction 9 October 2026
🔊 Former ATP 1000 Shanghai semi-finalist Matteo Berrettini made a confident start to the tournament, beating Aleksandar Kovacevic. Next up is fellow American Brandon Nakashima, who has never gone beyond the third round in Shanghai. Nakashima also has no wins in their head-to-head record against the former world No. 6 from Italy. That said, he goes into this match as the betting favourite. We'll see whether Berrettini can make something of his underdog status.
Head-to-Head
📊 The only previous meeting between them was won by Matteo Berrettini in four sets, back in 2022 at the Australian Open.
Matteo Berrettini Player Overview
Matteo Berrettini has won five of his last ten matches, reflecting an inconsistent yet competitive form. In the first round of Shanghai, he defeated Aleksandar Kovacevic (6-7, 6-1, 6-4), following an unexpected loss in Tokyo to Adolfo Daniel Vallejo, a player ranked outside the top 50. The average duration of Matteo's matches stands at 33.1 games, a number made possible by a high-quality serve featuring double-digit aces and an 84% hold rate. For instance, the Italian hit 23 aces against Kovacevic alone. This allows him to regularly stay in contention for sets, winning 52% of them.
Match Results: Matteo Berrettini
Brandon Nakashima Player Overview
Brandon Nakashima arrives at this match having won seven of his last ten, which points to solid form over that stretch. His best results have come on hard courts during the summer swing, where he reached the semi-finals at the ATP 500 events in Washington and Cincinnati and the final in Montreal. The Asian swing has been a different story - he went out in the first round of the Tokyo 500. Nakashima holds serve in 74% of his service games, and matches involving him average 26.5 games, of which he wins 59%. At 185 cm, Nakashima is not among the bigger players on tour and relies on precision rather than pure power - his first-serve accuracy stands at 59%.
Match Results: Brandon Nakashima
Key factors
- Matteo Berrettini and Brandon Nakashima frequently play long matches with high game counts.
- The average match length is 33.1 games for Matteo Berrettini and 26.5 for Brandon Nakashima.
- Their only previous meeting went to four sets, which also points to a potentially competitive encounter.
- Berrettini holds serve more often - 84% against 74% for Nakashima.
Expected scenario
The match looks fairly even: the Italian has the edge on serve, while the American tends to take the initiative in rallies. Either way, neither player gives away service points cheaply, which tends to push the total number of games up through a combination of easy service points traded and breaks of serve.
⭐ Editor's Pick
This match promises a clash of contrasting styles, with Matteo Berrettini's explosive power up against Brandon Nakashima's measured approach. Despite the ranking difference and current odds, the Italian has every chance of making life difficult for the higher-profile American, particularly on Shanghai's fast hard courts, where he has already reached the semi-finals - compared to Nakashima's career-best third round at the tournament.
Berrettini also arrives with better match sharpness from the current Asian swing. We have little doubt that, even with Brandon holding the general edge in rallies, Matteo will pick up plenty of free points on serve. Together, these factors should push the match longer. The pick is Total Games - Over 22.5.
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Betting Tips: Matteo Berrettini - Brandon Nakashima
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