Aboian vs Pellegrino Prediction 9 September 2026
🔊 Valerio Aboian and Andrea Pellegrino meet in the round of 16 at the Genoa Challenger. The match is on clay, which may add variety to the rallies. The two players come into this encounter with differing levels of consistency, which makes the prediction an interesting one.
Head-to-Head
📊 In their only previous meeting, Andrea Pellegrino won, though the margin was not large.
Head-to-head statistics Aboian - Pellegrino
Valerio Aboian Player Overview
Valerio Aboian is going through a strong run of form: eight wins from his last ten matches, including confident performances at this tournament. In qualifying he beat Luca Castagnola and Lorenzo Rottoli in succession, then defeated Juan Cruz Martin Manzano in the main draw. Over recent matches Aboian has been winning 12-13 games per match, converting 52% of break points and holding serve consistently, despite a modest hold percentage of 46%. Even in defeat he rarely loses by a wide margin - just one bagel in his last ten matches. That form gives grounds to expect him to cover a positive handicap against the favourite.
Match Results: Valerio Aboian
Andrea Pellegrino Player Overview
Andrea Pellegrino arrives at this match having won five of his last ten, with inconsistent results - losing streaks broken by the occasional positive outing. In his previous three matches he lost to Zizou Bergs and Colton Smith before beating Mika Petković here in Genoa. Statistically, Pellegrino holds a strong service-game percentage (77%) and a solid first-serve percentage (61%), though his double-fault count remains notable, averaging four per match. Despite being the higher-ranked player and having a favourable head-to-head record against Aboyan, his current form does not look convincing enough to suggest a one-sided outcome.
Match Results: Andrea Pellegrino
Key factors
- Valerio Aboian has covered the +4.5 games handicap in 17 of his last 18 matches.
- Valerio Aboian has won 8 of his last 10 matches and is in consistent form.
- Valerio Aboian's average games won per match over his last 10 matches is 12.6.
- Even in his head-to-head meeting with Andrea Pellegrino, Valerio Aboian did not lose by a wide margin.
- Andrea Pellegrino has been inconsistent, winning only 5 of his last 10 matches.
Expected scenario
The match looks likely to be competitive, with neither player dominating. Valerio Aboian's current form means he can make life difficult even for a higher-ranked opponent, so a heavy defeat seems unlikely. The games margin should stay within the chosen handicap.
⭐ Editor's Pick
Valerio Aboian's current form is reflected not only in a winning run but also in his ability to keep the margin manageable even against higher-ranked opponents at his level. His average games tally supports a positive handicap in virtually all recent matches. Even the one previous meeting with Andrea Pellegrino ended without a heavy defeat. The pick is Valerio Aboian - Games Handicap +4.5.
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Betting Tips: Valerio Aboian - Andrea Pellegrino
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