Gauff vs Mertens Prediction 7 October 2026
🔊 Following the exits of Elena Rybakina and Aryna Sabalenka, Cori Gauff has become the top favourite at the WTA 1000 event in Beijing. The American was already regarded as the queen of Chinese courts, holding the highest win percentage on them in the 21st century. In the round of 16 she faces Elise Mertens, who has finally broken through in the Chinese capital, reaching the second week of the tournament for the first time in seven attempts. The question is whether the Belgian can put a dent in the world number four's record in Beijing.
Head-to-Head
📊 Cori Gauff holds the head-to-head advantage, having won all five of her meetings with Elise Mertens.
Head-to-head statistics Gauff - Mertens
Cori Gauff Player Overview
Cori Gauff is in excellent form, winning nine of her last ten matches. Her summer hard-court swing has been highly successful: a title in Cincinnati and two semi-finals - in Toronto and at the US Open, where she lost to eventual champion Elena Rybakina. In Beijing she needed some time to find her rhythm in the first round against Camila Osorio (7-6; 4-6; 6-2), before closing out Xinran Sun with little resistance in the second round (7-5; 6-1). Gauff holds 64% of her service games and wins 55% of all points played. She tends to take control early, winning the first set in 90% of her matches, and 7 of her last 10 matches have ended without dropping a set.
Match Results: Cori Gauff
Elise Mertens Player Overview
Elise Mertens has won six of her last ten matches and reached the third round in Beijing, beating Katie Volynets and Jelena Ostapenko, both in three sets. She has been consistent on serve, holding in up to 68% of her service games, though that falls well short of Gauff's serving efficiency. She partly makes up for that with her return game, converting 37% of break points - though that figure still trails her upcoming opponent's. In rallies, Mertens tends to play defensively, though she can produce sharp counter-attacks and quick forays to the net.
Match Results: Elise Mertens
Key factors
- Cori Gauff has won all five of their previous meetings.
- Their hold rates are comparable, but Gauff hits more winners.
- Elise Mertens has played two consecutive three-set matches in Beijing, while Gauff won her previous round without dropping a set.
Expected scenario
Cori Gauff will look to seize control from the outset, relying on her powerful, dominant game and the psychological edge that comes from her historically strong record on Chinese courts - a win rate of around 89%. Elise Mertens will try to counter with extended baseline exchanges and varied pace, hoping to exploit the serving inconsistency Gauff showed in her opening match in Beijing.
⭐ Editor's Pick
Elise Mertens is having the best Beijing 1000 of her career, but an upset looks unlikely in the upcoming match - particularly given her gruelling three-set battle against Ostapenko and her poor record in head-to-head meetings with Gauff. Cori knows exactly how to play against the Belgian: she will make Mertens run, wear her down physically, and will probably avoid a deciding set, as she did in their most recent encounter. Our prediction: Cori Gauff to win, Correct Score - 2-0.
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Betting Tips: Cori Gauff - Elise Mertens
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in last 5 matches against Elise Mertens.Other predictions
