Kovacevic vs Berrettini Prediction 7 October 2026
🔊 Aleksandar Kovacevic will try for the fourth time to get past the first round at the Shanghai ATP 1000. The draw has not been kind to him, as his opening-round opponent is 2019 semi-finalist Matteo Berrettini. The Italian former world No. 6 has had a difficult start to the Asian swing, going out in the second round in Tokyo. That said, his American opponent fared even worse there, failing to come through qualifying, so he goes into this match as a clear underdog.
Head-to-Head
📊 Aleksandar Kovacevic and Matteo Berrettini have never previously met.
Aleksandar Kovacevic Player Overview
Aleksandar Kovacevic arrives at the Masters with five wins from his last ten matches. His most notable recent result was a quarter-final run at the August ATP 250 in Winston-Salem, after which he lost three of his next four matches and failed to reach the main draw in Tokyo - his only Asian swing event - losing in the final round of qualifying to Jaume Munar. Kovacevic's main weapon is his serve: he holds in 86% of service games, and averages close to ten aces per match. That is offset by frequent errors both in rallies and on serve, with double faults accounting for 5% of his service points.
Match Results: Aleksandar Kovacevic
Matteo Berrettini Player Overview
Matteo Berrettini also has five wins from his last ten matches. Among his recent results is a victory over Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, the ATP 250 champion in Chengdu, in the first round of the Tokyo 500, though he went out in the round of 16. On serve, Berrettini holds 84% of his service games, with an average of more than 13 aces per match, which makes him a threat against opponents of varying styles. In terms of points won, he is almost level with his upcoming American opponent (50%), though Berrettini has a slightly higher set-winning rate - taking more than half of his sets.
Match Results: Matteo Berrettini
Key factors
- Both players have won five of their last ten matches, suggesting comparable form.
- Aleksandar Kovacevic averages 24.5 games per match; Matteo Berrettini averages 35.3.
- Both players hold serve in more than 84% of their service games.
Expected scenario
Both players serve powerfully, and there is no clear edge between them over a longer sample. High ace rates make it more likely that each player holds comfortably, which could produce tie-breaks and points to a closely contested match without either player dominating.
⭐ Editor's Pick
Both players are in broadly similar form over recent matches: neither has put together an extended winning run, though Kovacevic did reach the quarter-finals in Winston-Salem at the end of August. A strong service game is a feature of both the American and the Italian, which creates conditions for tight sets regardless of how the match unfolds. In a contest between two players who are not the most consistent servers, we think there is a case for Total Games - Over 22.5.
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Betting Tips: Aleksandar Kovacevic - Matteo Berrettini
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