Shelton vs Tsitsipas Prediction 6 September 2026
π Stefanos Tsitsipas, despite having been ranked as high as world No. 3 in previous years, had never before reached the fourth round of the US Open. By beating JiΕΓ LeheΔka in the third round, the Greek finally completed a career set of second-week appearances at all four Grand Slams. His next opponent, Ben Shelton, reached the round of 16 after an gruelling late-night thriller against Denis Shapovalov that finished after 2 a.m. local time - the third match at the tournament to run that late. The question is whether Shelton will have recovered sufficiently to continue his pursuit of matching his best result at his home Major, a semi-final appearance in 2023.
Head-to-Head
π The only previous meeting between these two went to Stefanos Tsitsipas. That match was played just over three years ago at the Cincinnati Masters and was decided by two tie-breaks.
Ben Shelton Player Overview
Ben Shelton has had an excellent season: four titles across all surfaces, the most recent of which he claimed in Montreal, have lifted him to ninth in the ATP rankings and made him the top American. On his way to the US Open round of 16, he dropped a set in each match - to Tallon Griekspoor (1-6, 6-1, 7-6, 6-2), Hubert Hurkacz (6-3, 5-7, 7-6, 7-5) and Denis Shapovalov (7-6, 6-7, 6-3, 6-4).
Shelton holds serve comfortably: his service games won percentage stands at 78, and he averages 10.1 aces per match. His first serve goes in consistently - 70% of the time - which helps him control his service games even against big hitters, as was particularly evident in his last two matches at this Major. Unlike most big servers, though, Shelton also moves well around the court and comes to the net regularly; as a child he played American football, which developed his explosive first-step speed.
Match Results: Ben Shelton
Stefanos Tsitsipas Player Overview
Despite winning his first ATP title in almost eighteen months at Gstaad on clay this summer, Stefanos Tsitsipas decided to change coach ahead of the US Open, replacing his father with Patrick Mouratoglou, formerly Serena Williams's coach. The switch produced results almost immediately: Tsitsipas finished the summer hard-court swing with a break-even record (4-4), but in the main draw he has already beaten two top-20 players in Arthur Fils (4-6, 7-6, 6-1, 6-4) and JiΕΓ LeheΔka (2-6, 6-1, 7-6, 6-1), as well as former US Open quarter-finalist Lloyd Harris (6-7, 6-3, 6-4, 6-4).
Tsitsipas's serve remains a threat to any opponent: his average ace count (11.7) is even higher than his next opponent's, and he holds serve in 77% of his service games. Even with a relatively modest first-serve percentage (61%), he compensates with consistency and strong results on subsequent rallies. The former world No. 3 is effective off both wings, but his one-handed backhand stands out in particular - fans and analysts alike feel it has been misfiring far less frequently since the coaching change.
Match Results: Stefanos Tsitsipas
Key factors
- Stefanos Tsitsipas has won more than 20.5 games in five consecutive matches at the US Open.
- Over his last ten matches, Tsitsipas averages 34.5 games per match.
- Both players post strong numbers for aces and service games held.
- In their only previous hard-court meeting, Tsitsipas won, though it required two tie-breaks.
Expected scenario
Ben Shelton will look to seize control from the outset with his powerful left-handed serve, and during rallies he will consistently target the Greek's one-handed backhand, pushing him deep behind the baseline. The key factor will be whether Stefanos Tsitsipas can handle that pressure on return, absorb the pace with slice, and draw the sometimes hurried American into extended tactical exchanges, where the 23-year-old Shelton's mental fragility could surface in runs of unforced errors.
Total Games Prediction
Tsitsipas has taken more than 20 games in each of his last five matches at the US Open. In the current tournament he has yet to win a first set, meaning all his victories have come from behind. Shelton, for his part, has dropped a set in each of his three rounds, which further raises the chances of another high-scoring match.
β Editor's Pick
Stefanos Tsitsipas's current form, along with his win against Ben Shelton in their only previous meeting - on hard court in Cincinnati three years ago - adds to his case for being competitive here. This should be a contrast in styles, with Shelton's aggressive game likely to put him in control for much of the match. That said, Tsitsipas brings not only solid defence but also a serve that holds up at least as well as his opponent's, and at times better.
The match may well develop into a long, intense affair of four or five sets with plenty of tie-breaks, in which Stefanos should have enough opportunities to put up a strong games tally. The odds make it reasonable to lower expectations for the underdog and back Tsitsipas - Player Total Games Over 18.5.
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Betting Tips: Ben Shelton - Stefanos Tsitsipas
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