Kostyuk vs Noskova Prediction 6 September 2026
🔊 Marta Kostyuk and Linda Noskova meet in the fourth round of the US Open - two players who have each won a title this season. Noskova won Wimbledon in the summer, having previously taken the grass-court event in Berlin. Kostyuk won Madrid in the spring, beating Mirra Andreeva in the final, and also reached the final in Brisbane and the semi-finals at Roland Garros. Both are having their best seasons to date, and their rankings are just a few places apart. What matters here is not status but current form.
Head-to-Head
📊 The head-to-head record between Kostyuk and Noskova is level at 1-1. In Madrid in the spring, Kostyuk won 7-6 6-0, while Noskova took their Wimbledon semi-final in the summer 6-4 6-4. The two have not yet met on hard court.
Marta Kostyuk Player Overview
The Ukrainian reached the third round without dropping a set, winning 6-1 7-5 against Sloane Stephens, 6-3 6-2 against Ekaterina Alexandrova and 6-4 6-1 against Storm Hunter. Her season has been outstanding: a title in Madrid, a final in Brisbane, semi-finals at Roland Garros and Wimbledon, and eight wins over top-ten players. On hard courts this season she is 14-6.
Her serve has been inconsistent - 57% first-serve percentage for the season and 51% in recent weeks, with 7% double faults. Her return game compensates for that: she wins 46% of return points and breaks in 41% of return games. Over the past few weeks she has won 8 of 10 matches, and in Cincinnati she beat Mirra Andreeva 4-6 6-0 6-2.
Match Results: Marta Kostyuk
Linda Noskova Player Overview
The Czech player won Wimbledon, beating Karolína Muchová in the final, and before that took the grass-court title in Berlin with a win over Jessica Pegula. In New York she dropped one set: 7-5, 6-1 against Kaytlyn Volynets and 6-2, 6-7, 6-2 against Ann Li. Since Wimbledon, hard courts have been more difficult, with losses to Katie McNally and Amanda Anisimova. Her hard-court record for the season stands at 14 wins and 8 losses.
Nosková's serve is more powerful than her opponent's: 10% aces for the season and 14% over recent weeks. The downside is double faults, whose share over the same period has risen to 14%. Her return game remains a weakness - 41% of return points won for the season and breaks in 30% of return games, with that figure dropping to 24% over recent weeks.
Match Results: Linda Noskova
Key factors
- Noskova holds serve in 78% of service games; Kostyuk in 74%.
- Noskova has hit aces on 10% of service points this season and 14% in recent weeks; Kostyuk 6%.
- In recent weeks, Kostyuk has landed her first serve in 51% of attempts.
- Noskova won their Wimbledon semi-final 6-4 6-4.
- In recent weeks, Kostyuk has broken serve in 41% of return games; Noskova in 24%.
Expected scenario
The match can be broken down into two distinct tasks. Noskova needs to hold serve. That is her strength: 78% of service games held this season, plus 14% aces over recent weeks. Kostyuk is less reliable on serve, landing her first serve only around half the time and adding 7% double faults.
Kostyuk makes up for it on return, where she is noticeably stronger: 41% of return games won against 24% for her opponent. However, for that to matter, Noskova needs to be pushed to her second serve regularly, and at the moment she is serving more powerfully than her seasonal average. The most likely picture is two tight sets along the lines of 6-4, 7-5 in favour of the Czech player, or three sets decided on return.
⭐ Editor's Pick
The market favours Kostyuk, which is understandable given her recent results on hard courts. But the one genuinely significant match between them was decided by exactly the same qualities that will matter here. Noskova had the answer: she took the Wimbledon semi-final in straight sets and went on to win the title. Both of the Czech player's summer titles came after dropping the second set, and she won the deciding set in both finals.
The mechanics of the match also favour her. Noskova is currently serving more powerfully than her seasonal average - 14% aces against 6% for her opponent - and she is holding serve more often. Kostyuk lands her first serve only around half the time, meaning she gives away two or three second-serve rallies in every service game. The Ukrainian's return game is stronger, but that alone may not be enough against a serve of this quality.
Linda Noskova to Win
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Betting Tips: Marta Kostyuk - Linda Noskova
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