Pavlovic vs Simakin Prediction 5 October 2026
🔊 Luka Pavlovic and Ilia Simakin meet in the first round of qualifying at the Shanghai tournament. Both players take to the hard court, where form and consistency may prove important. The match should reveal which of the two is better prepared for the main draw.
Head-to-Head
📊 Luka Pavlovic and Ilia Simakin have no previous meetings on record.
Luka Pavlovic Player Overview
Luka Pavlovich goes into this match having won five of his last ten. During that run he lost two matches without taking a set, which points to certain difficulties holding an advantage against stronger opponents. In his most recent match he lost to Hunter Heck, and before that he was eliminated by Alexandre Müller in the opening round of qualifying at another tournament. On serve, Pavlovich holds 82% of his service games - a strong figure - but his overall games-won percentage is just 51%. He stands out for his aces (12.3 per match), though a double-fault rate of 6% reflects inconsistency on second serve.
Match Results: Luka Pavlovic
Ilia Simakin Player Overview
Ilia Simakin is on an impressive ten-match winning streak, with six straight-sets wins during that run. He has been consistently winning both the first and second set: his last six matches have ended with him taking the second set, and he has won the first set in 17 of 19 matches this season. On serve, Simakin holds 69% of his service games - lower than his opponent - but makes up for it with stronger return play and overall control of rallies. Simakin has won 61% of games overall compared to 51% for Pavlovich, and his break-point conversion rate is also higher at 47%. All of these figures reflect a clear advantage in both form and statistics.
Match Results: Ilia Simakin
Key factors
- Ilia Simakin has won 14 of his last 15 matches with a -2.5 games handicap.
- Simakin is on a ten-match winning streak and has a high set-winning percentage.
- Luka Pavlovic has lost 5 of his last 10 matches and has been bagelled twice.
- Simakin wins 61% of games compared to 51% for Pavlovic.
- Serve and return statistics also favour Simakin.
Expected scenario
The main scenario is a comfortable win for Ilia Simakin throughout the match, backed by good form and consistent straight-sets victories with a margin. The probability of a third set is considered low: matches involving the Russian player most often finish in two sets with a margin of more than two games.
⭐ Editor's Pick
Current form clearly favours Ilia Simakin - a ten-match winning streak underlines his status as favourite here. Across the key metrics, the Russian leads Luka Pavlovic: more games won, a better break-point conversion rate and strong numbers across all areas of his game. That picture makes a comfortable win for the favourite, with enough of a games margin, a reasonable expectation. The pick is Simakin - Games Handicap -2.5.
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Betting Tips: Luka Pavlovic - Ilia Simakin
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