Djokovic vs Medvedev Prediction 5 October 2026
🔊 Not even world number two Alexander Zverev could stop Novak Djokovic's historic winning streak in Beijing. In doing so, the Serb broke Rafael Nadal's all-time record for consecutive wins at a single tournament: Nadal had won 31 matches in a row at Roland Garros, while Djokovic claimed his 32nd victory at the Chinese 500-point event in the previous round. In the semi-final he faces another record-holder - Daniil Medvedev, who became the first player on tour to reach 30 wins on hard courts this season. This semi-final will also be Medvedev's fourth consecutive semi-final in the Chinese capital, and Djokovic's seventh. We'll see who comes closer to adding another personal milestone.
Head-to-Head
📊 In head-to-head meetings, Novak Djokovic leads 8-5. However, the two have not faced each other in over three years. Their last meeting was the 2023 US Open final, where Djokovic won in three sets 6-3, 7-6, 6-3.
Head-to-head statistics Djokovic - Medvedev
Novak Djokovic Player Overview
Novak Djokovic arrives at the semi-final having won seven of his last ten matches. After a difficult summer hard-court stretch that ended with a first-round exit at the US Open, he came through three rounds in Beijing with wins over Nuno Borges (6-3, 7-6), Bu Yunchaokete (4-6, 7-6, 6-2) and tournament favourite Alexander Zverev (4-6, 6-4, 6-4). While Djokovic has never been known for a powerful serve, he averages 11 aces and wins more than half of all service games, reflected in a hold percentage of 83%. Despite being 39, he remains one of the quickest players on tour, and where pace alone is not enough, his trademark slide - effective even on hard courts - makes up the difference.
Match Results: Novak Djokovic
Daniil Medvedev Player Overview
Daniil Medvedev has hit excellent form, winning nine of his last ten matches, including a current seven-match winning streak that brought him the ATP 250 title in Hangzhou. In Beijing he has beaten Pablo Carreño Busta, Jan-Lennard Struff and Francisco Cerundolo in succession, dropping no sets along the way. Notably, Medvedev has not dropped a set in five matches. His serve has been consistent - he has held 78% of his service games - and he is averaging 13 aces per match, figures that suggest he takes more risks on serve than his upcoming opponent. In rallies, both players operate in a similarly defensive style, though Medvedev stands out for his extremely deep return position, dropping 4-5 metres behind the baseline.
Match Results: Daniil Medvedev
Key factors
- Novak Djokovic leads in head-to-head meetings, but the two have not faced each other in over three years.
- Daniil Medvedev is on a seven-match winning streak on the Asian swing and has not dropped a set in five matches.
- The Serb has played two consecutive three-set matches in Beijing, and his first match there also lasted 22 games.
Expected scenario
In the upcoming semi-final, a gruelling baseline battle is expected, with Daniil Medvedev taking up his customary deep defensive position and trying to draw Novak Djokovic into extended rallies. Aware of the Russian's tenacious game on Beijing's slow hard courts, Djokovic will look to maintain controlled aggression - attacking Medvedev's serve as sharply as possible, disrupting the rhythm with drop shots and net approaches, and steadily loading the backhand with down-the-line balls.
⭐ Editor's Pick
Daniil Medvedev's form since the start of the Asian swing has been impressive: a seven-match winning streak, five of which were straight-sets victories. Against that backdrop, Novak Djokovic's route to the semi-finals looks considerably harder - two three-set matches, one of them against world number two Alexander Zverev, which will surely have taken a toll on the veteran. That said, after the gruelling three-setter against Bu Yunchaokete in the second round it already seemed as though the 39-year-old Serb's stamina was running low, so underestimating his ability to grind through long matches would be unwise. The defensive styles of both players are likely to produce a high volume of extended rallies, which makes Total Games - Over 22.5 a reasonable prospect.
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Betting Tips: Novak Djokovic - Daniil Medvedev
in 6 of last 7 matches against Novak Djokovic.Other predictions
