Collignon vs Popyrin Prediction 5 August 2026
π Alexei Popyrin's ranking has dropped sharply since his Montreal title two years ago - he's no longer inside the top 100. Still, he opened this tournament with a win over a top-60 player. Round two brings a tougher test: world No. 38 RaphaΓ«l Collignon. There's also a revenge angle - Popyrin lost to the Belgian recently in Halle. The timing looks right: Collignon arrives on a two-match losing streak.
Head-to-Head
π They have met before: the only previous meeting went to RafaΓ«l Collignon. That match was less than two months ago at the Halle ATP 500 on grass. PopyrΠΈΠ½ managed just six games across two sets.
Raphael Collignon Player Overview
Collignon has won five of his last ten matches - a middling run. The highlights include a final at the Gstaad ATP 250, though he followed that with a first-round exit in KitzbΓΌhel at the same level. Since that clay stretch, he hasn't played on hard courts. On serve, he's solid - holds 85% of points. He wins more games and sets than most opponents ranked inside the top 50. On hard courts, his return game could be a factor too; clay is his natural surface, and that tends to sharpen the return.
Match Results: Raphael Collignon
Alexei Popyrin Player Overview
Alexei Popyrin has won 4 of his last 10 matches, with six of those losses coming in a rough stretch leading up to the Montreal Masters 1000. Still, he got off to a winning start at the Canadian Masters - two wins already, having come through qualifying. He beat fellow Australian Thanasi Kokkinakis in straight sets in the qualifiers, then came through a three-setter against Roman Andres Burruchaga in the main draw (4:6; 7:5; 6:3). His first-serve percentage is decent at 63%, and double faults aren't a major issue (4%), but Popyrin regularly struggles to hold serve. That shows up in his negative games differential.
Match Results: Alexei Popyrin
Key factors
- Alexei Popyrin has won fewer than 12.5 games in 6 of his last 7 matches.
- RaphaΓ«l Collignon won their only head-to-head meeting, played on grass less than two months ago.
- Collignon is ranked higher and has better numbers in sets and games won.
- Popyrin often loses matches with minimal games - or none at all.
Expected scenario
Collignon should control this match - limiting Popyrins ability to hold serve consistently. A third set looks unlikely, which means the Australian's total game count will probably stay below the standard men's tour line.
β Editor's prediction
Collignon looks stronger across the key metrics: better on serve, more effective on return, and regularly tested against higher-level opposition. Alexei Popyrin has plenty of experience at big tournaments, sure - but his best form is well behind him. The numbers also point to recurring problems converting opportunities, even when matches start evenly. A long fight from Popyrin isn't the base case here, so the play is Collignon handicap (-2.5).
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Betting Tips: Raphael Collignon - Alexei Popyrin
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