Medvedev vs Cerundolo Prediction 4 October 2026
🔊 Daniil Medvedev is one step away from a fourth consecutive Beijing semi-final, with Francisco Cerundolo - against whom he has yet to win - standing in his way. Cerundolo caused an upset in the previous round, knocking out Jakub Mensik in more convincing fashion than he had managed at the start of the tournament against Botic Van De Zandschulp. The question is whether he can end Medvedev's unbeaten run on Chinese courts, which stretches back to his ATP 250 title in Hangzhou.
Head-to-Head
📊 In their only previous meeting, Francisco Cerundolo won in three sets. The match took place in March this season at the Miami Masters 1000 on hard court (6-0, 4-6, 7-5).
Daniil Medvedev Player Overview
Daniil Medvedev is showcasing excellent form with nine wins in his last ten matches, highlighted by a title in Hangzhou and a confident run through the Beijing draw. In his last two matches, he dismissed Pablo Carreno Busta and Jan-Lennard Struff in straight sets, extending his streak of clean-sheet victories to four consecutive matches. Over this stretch, Medvedev has won 84% of his sets and maintains a strong 78% service games won rate. On average, he captures over half of the total points played (59%) and boasts an effective deep return, converting 42% of his break point opportunities.
Match Results: Daniil Medvedev
Francisco Cerundolo Player Overview
Francisco Cerundolo is ranked lower (22nd versus his opponent's 6th) and has been less consistent, winning 7 of his last 10 matches. His current run of form began with the Davis Cup and the Laver Cup, the latter being where he suffered his only defeat of the autumn, against Casper Ruud. In the previous round in Beijing, however, the Argentine beat Jakub Mensik against the odds (6-3, 6-3), though he had a difficult opener at the 500-level event against Botic Van De Zandschulp (5-7, 6-4, 6-3). His hold percentage and overall set-winning rate are noticeably lower than Medvedev's - 70% and 61% respectively - and his double-fault rate is as high as 6%.
Match Results: Francisco Cerundolo
Key factors
- Daniil Medvedev has won 8 of his last 10 matches and is on a run of four consecutive straight-sets wins.
- Daniil Medvedev's set-winning percentage stands at 84%, compared to 61% for Cerundolo.
- Medvedev's hold percentage is also notably higher (78% against 70%).
Expected scenario
The most likely scenario is a comfortable performance from Daniil Medvedev, given his level of play during the current Asian swing and a run of straight-sets wins. His consistency should provide a comfortable margin on the scoreboard, helped by easy points on serve that his Argentine opponent cannot match. Rallies are likely to be competitive, but Medvedev's deep return position should still be enough to convert a couple of breaks in each set and maintain a narrow game advantage throughout, seeing the match out to its logical conclusion.
Total Games Prediction
Matches involving Daniil Medvedev regularly finish under the 23-game mark, and his current run of four straight-sets wins points to another relatively straightforward encounter ahead.
⭐ Editor's Pick
Daniil Medvedev reaches the quarter-final on the back of a run of confident straight-sets wins and holds a significant advantage over Francisco Cerundolo across the key metrics. The Argentine's best chance of making it competitive is through aggression during rallies. However, given the high volume of unforced errors in his game and Medvedev's deep court position, Cerundolo's attacking style is unlikely to pay off even on Beijing's fast courts. He will probably run into a couple of breaks and find himself unable to close the gap on the betting favourite. Our pick: Medvedev - Games Handicap -2.5.
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Betting Tips: Daniil Medvedev - Francisco Cerundolo
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