Leipzig vs Mainz Prediction 31 January 2026
🔊 On Saturday, Leipzig host Mainz in the 20th round of the Bundesliga. The Red Bulls have slightly lost ground and are at risk of dropping out of the Champions League spots. Meanwhile, the 05ers are gradually improving their standing under Urs Fischer and continue their climb from the bottom of the table. Can the visitors take points from the hosts, as they have done in their last three visits to the Red Bull Arena?
Head-to-Head
📊 In the first round in Mainz, Leipzig claimed victory with a solitary goal from Johan Bakayoko. Overall, Leipzig hold the upper hand in their head-to-head encounters, boasting eight wins to Mainz's six, with four matches ending in a draw. However, the "Red Bulls" have not won any of their last three home matches against the "05ers," losing two of those encounters.
Head-to-head statistics Leipzig - Mainz
Leipzig Team Overview
🔴 Ole Werner's squad missed the chance to close the gap on third-placed Hoffenheim after conceding a stoppage-time goal in their rescheduled Matchday 16 clash against St. Pauli (1-1), which took place on Tuesday in Hamburg. Jan Diomande put the "Red Bulls" ahead, but it wasn't enough.
⚪ Since mid-December, Leipzig have noticeably slowed down: in their last six matches, they have managed only two wins, one draw, and three losses. The club sits in fourth place with 36 points and risks dropping to fifth by the end of the weekend if they lose points in their home fixture. Their previous game at the "Red Bull Arena" ended in a heavy defeat to Bayern (1-5), so the "Red Bulls" need to redeem themselves in front of their fans - both for recent performances overall and that particular setback.
Match Results: Leipzig
Mainz Team Overview
⚫ Last weekend, Mainz pulled off an impressive comeback at home against Wolfsburg (3-1), scoring three times from set pieces. The '05ers conceded in the third minute and had a chance to equalize before halftime, but Philipp Tietz missed a penalty.
🔴 The game turned after the 68th minute. Tietz redeemed himself by heading in a goal from a corner, followed by another corner leading to a Stefan Bell goal. In the 83rd minute, Nadiem Amiri converted a penalty earned after yet another corner delivery. Under the leadership of Urs Fischer, who took charge in December, the team has lost just one of their six Bundesliga matches. Currently sitting in 16th place, a victory could lift Mainz to 14th. However, away games remain a significant issue, as the '05ers have failed to win on the road in their last nine matches across all competitions.
Match Results: Mainz
Latest news
Leipzig
🎙️ Ole Werner on the opponent: "Mainz are not just a team that sits back in defense; they aim to press high and aggressively at various stages of the game, forcing opponents to resort to long balls. They excel in these scenarios as they have defenders who are strong in aerial duels and tackling."
📝 On Thursday, it was announced that forward Timo Werner has left Leipzig to join the MLS club San Jose Earthquakes. During his two stints at Leipzig, the 29-year-old striker played 216 official matches, scoring 113 goals and providing 47 assists. Werner remains the club's all-time top scorer.
❌ Johan Bakayoko has returned to team training, but a decision on his participation in Saturday's match will be made after Friday's session. Castello Lukeba is still sidelined with a knee injury. Sulemana Sani suffered an ankle ligament injury in training and is likely out for four to six weeks. Christoph Baumgartner is suspended due to an accumulation of yellow cards. Assan Ouedraogo and Viggo Gebel are also unavailable.
Mainz
🎙️ Urs Fischer ahead of the game: "We expect to face a team eager to dominate possession. They'll attack swiftly, particularly down the flanks. We'll need to counter this collectively as a team."
❌ Sota Kawasaki had to cut his training session short on Wednesday. Andreas Hanche-Olsen, Nicolas Ferachnig, Anthony Caci, and Robin Zentner continue with individual training.
🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards
Daniel Schlager has been appointed as the main referee for the match. Over his last 10 games, he has averaged 4.7 yellow cards per game. The home team has one of the lowest averages in the league for cautions at 1.4, while the visitors have one of the highest at 2.3. We are opting for over 3.5 total yellow cards, a bet that has come through in Mainz's last three matches.
⚽ Goal Prediction
Leipzig have scored in every home game this season, and few believe Mainz will keep a clean sheet away, especially since they've conceded in their last nine away matches. However, in the last seven head-to-head encounters between these teams, under 3.5 goals has been the trend. Considering Leipzig's inconsistent form, we are going with this option.
🚩 Corner Prediction
The average corner count for the "Red Bulls" is 5.4, while for "Die Nullfünfer" it stands at 5.3. However, it's expected that the visitors will have less possession and therefore fewer set-piece opportunities. Thus, we select Mainz under 4.5 individual corners-a bet that has been successful in 7 of the last 8 head-to-head matches between these teams.
Editorial Prediction
For Leipzig, the primary goal this season is to secure a spot in the Champions League zone. Mainz initially aimed to replicate last year's success and maintain their position in European competition, but their trajectory has shifted, and now their main objective is to retain their place in the Bundesliga.
This match is crucial for the visitors, but Mainz will likely focus on collecting points at home or against direct rivals. Leipzig, despite their inconsistency, cannot afford to drop points at the Red Bull Arena: they've already suffered defeats against key competitors here, and given Mainz's current state, any slip-ups would be unacceptable. Our prediction: Leipzig win. Possible scoreline - 2-0.
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Betting Tips: Leipzig - Mainz
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