Spain vs Croatia Prediction 29 September 2026
π Spain will begin the home leg of the new Nations League campaign on the back of an impressive win over England at Wembley. Croatia also picked up three points in the opening round, beating Czechia in Prague, so the two sides meet in Seville having both tasted victory. For Spain, it will be their first home match since returning as reigning world champions, while Croatia are looking to lean once again on Luka ModriΔ's experience and their ability to grind through difficult games. The opening fixtures showed that both sides are capable of causing problems even when the game is not going their way. We look at form, squad availability and statistical trends ahead of the meeting.
π We will update this prediction as new information becomes available. Check back just before kick-off so you don't miss any important changes.
Spain have come out on top more often
π The head-to-head record favours Spain. In their seven previous meetings, Spain have won four, Croatia two, with one draw. In recent major tournaments the two sides have regularly produced high-scoring matches: Euro 2020 ended in a 5-3 victory for Spain after extra time, while in the 2018 Nations League the teams exchanged emphatic wins - 6-0 to Spain and 3-2 to Croatia. The 2023 Nations League final between them finished 0-0, with Spain winning on penalties. Their most recent meeting came in the opening round of Euro 2024 in Germany, where Spain beat Croatia 3-0.
Head-to-head statistics Spain - Croatia
Spain withstand Wembley pressure
Spain began the tournament with a difficult match against England and came away with a 3-2 win. Lamine Yamal opened the scoring as early as the second minute after an error by the opposition in possession, but England then took control and went ahead before half-time. After conceding, Spain did not fall apart, and in the second half they were handed a crucial opportunity to get back into the game: on 54 minutes, Harry Kane missed a penalty with the score at 2-1. Spain then took the initiative, Alex Baena equalised on 60 minutes, and Mikel Oyarzabal won it on 74.
Particularly notable was Spain's ability to change the nature of the game as it unfolded. Luis de la Fuente singled out a few minutes of lost concentration in the first half after the match, but stressed that the team had managed to come through different phases of the game and respond to changing circumstances. Spain had chances even before the break - Ferran Torres found himself in good positions on several occasions - and after the interval the team stepped up their intensity and regained control.
Now Spain return home and will have more familiar conditions for their style of football. The hosts will surely look to dominate possession, stretch Croatia's defence through the flanks and regularly work the ball into the penalty area. At Wembley, Spain already showed they can create chances even against high-level opposition, and the presence of Yamal, Oyarzabal, Ferran Torres and Dani Olmo gives de la Fuente several different options in attack.
Match Results: Spain
Croatia once again turn to experience
Croatia began the tournament with a 2-1 win over Czechia. The first half ended goalless, but shortly after the break Slaven BiliΔ's side went ahead through Luka ModriΔ. The Czechs equalised quickly, though Marko PaΕ‘aliΔ scored the decisive goal in the second half of the period to give Croatia the three points.
The midfield remains an important factor. ModriΔ not only kept his place in the national team after the World Cup but scored in the very first match of the new cycle. Alongside him are Mateo KovaΔiΔ, Petar SuΔiΔ and Luka SuΔiΔ - a combination of experience and more mobile players capable of helping in the build-up. Against Spain this area of the pitch will be particularly important: Croatia will need to endure long spells without the ball while also looking for opportunities to transition quickly.
Croatia do not look like a side that will abandon attacking football entirely. The win over Czechia showed that even after a cautious first half they have enough quality in the final third: PeriΕ‘iΔ can provide width, PaΕ‘aliΔ arrives from deep, and Budimir, KramariΔ and MatanoviΔ offer options in the box. There will be less space in Seville, but the effectiveness of their rare attacking moments may well determine how long the visitors can keep the match alive.
Match Results: Croatia
Latest news
Spain
β In terms of personnel, Spain's squad largely retains the core of their title-winning side. Rodri, Pedri, FabiΓ‘n Ruiz, Dani Olmo, Yamal, Oyarzabal and other key players are all included. Pedro Porro is missing from the camp through injury, while FermΓn LΓ³pez has returned to the squad after recovering from his own injury; Gavi and goalkeeper Joan GarcΓa are also absent.
Croatia
β Before the training camp began, Bilic received some unwelcome injury news: Josip JuranoviΔ and Martin ErliΔ were ruled out through injury, prompting the additional call-ups of Marin PongraΔiΔ, Kristijan JakiΔ and Lovro Majer. However, none of them featured in Prague.
Predicted Lineups
π Predicted Spain starting XI: SimΓ³n - Pubill, CubarsΓ, Laporte, Cucurella - Rodri, Ruiz - Yamal, Olmo, Baena - Oyarzabal.
π Predicted Croatia starting XI: LivakoviΔ - StaniΕ‘iΔ, VuΕ‘koviΔ, Gvardiol, PeriΕ‘iΔ - ModriΔ, KovaΔiΔ - L. SuΔiΔ, P. SuΔiΔ, IvanoviΔ - MatanoviΔ.
π¨ Yellow Cards Prediction
In the first round, Spain received no bookings in their match against England, while Croatia picked up one yellow card in their game against Czechia. Head-to-head meetings between these two sides have historically not been marked by an excessive number of cautions.
Spain will likely dominate possession again, and Croatia will probably have to break up attacks with fouls more frequently, especially if Yamal and other attacking players start regularly receiving the ball between the lines. With that in mind, it makes sense to look at Croatia Team Total - Over 1.5 Yellow Cards, priced at 2.04*.
β½ Goals Prediction
Spain's opening match against England ended with five goals, while Croatia scored twice against Czechia. Both teams began the tournament with high-scoring games, and the head-to-head record also points towards an open contest: across the last seven meetings between the two sides, an average of 3.71 goals were scored per game, with five of those matches finishing with more than 2.5 goals. Current form adds further weight to that argument - Spain have both scored and conceded in seven consecutive Nations League matches, while Croatia have exchanged goals with their opponents in six of their last seven games. On that basis, I'm expecting at least three goals. Bet: Total Goals - Over 2.5 - 1.47*.
π© Corner Prediction
Spain have a clear territorial advantage through their ability to sustain possession and create overloads on the flanks. Yamal has already scored against England, and the introductions of Oyarzabal and Baena in the second half allowed Spain to turn the game around at Wembley. Croatia will be forced to sit deep at times, so the volume of Spain's attacks should translate directly into corners. I'd back Spain to win the corner count on the -2.5 handicap at 1.67*.
π± Risky bet
Spain, after scoring five goals against England, could be involved in another high-scoring match. Croatia also featured in a three-goal game, and their recent head-to-head meetings have often produced big scorelines. The current line offers odds of 3.95* on Total Goals - Over 4.5. Given Spain's attacking potential and Croatia's ability to create chances of their own, this option suits a more aggressive prediction.
π― Reliable Bet
Spain have already shown at Wembley that they can handle serious pressure while maintaining control of the match. At home against Croatia, they will have even more opportunities to build positional attacks. The more conservative option, then, is Spain to Win at 1.22*.
π Player Stat Bet
Lamine Yamal opened his Nations League campaign with a goal against England, and he will have further opportunities to make an attacking impact against Croatia. The Spaniard regularly cuts in from the right flank, takes the game on and is consistently involved in creating chances. In the first matchday he not only scored but also had seven shots, so his influence on Spain's attacking play is hard to overstate. Bet: Lamine Yamal to Score or Assist - 1.48*.
π If the match doesn't go to plan
If Croatia score first against the odds, Spain will increase the pressure and push their attacking line even higher. De la Fuente's side already went through exactly that scenario at Wembley after England turned the game around. So if the visitors score early, an interesting in-play option would be Spain Team Total - Over 1.5 goals, as the hosts will maintain territorial dominance and continue to get into the box regularly.
*Odds are approximate and may vary across different bookmakers.
β Editor's Prediction
Spain go into this home match on the back of a very strong win over England and carry an impressive unbeaten run of 39 matches. Croatia also started the tournament with a win, but in Seville they will have to defend far more and spend long periods without the ball. Spain are capable of applying sustained pressure through possession, wide activity and individual quality in attack, while the visitors may be able to exploit occasional errors from the hosts and find their moment. I therefore expect a high-scoring match with a clear advantage for the world champions. Main bet: Spain - Handicap -1.5. Predicted scoreline: 4-1.
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Betting Tips: Spain - Croatia
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