Germany vs Paraguay Prediction 29 June 2026
🔊 Paraguay are at a World Cup for the first time in 16 years and have made the knockout stage - a genuine achievement for Alfaro's side, but almost certainly their ceiling. Germany, back in the last 16 for the first time in 12 years, shouldn't have too many problems here - unless they create them themselves, as they did against Ecuador. The squad quality, bench depth and attacking potential gaps between these two sides are enormous. If Germany take the right lessons from their only defeat of the tournament, they should come through this without too much drama.
🔁 We continuously revise this prediction on matchday, incorporating the latest developments to keep it relevant and help you make more informed betting decisions.
Head-to-Head
📊 These sides met in the 2002 World Cup last 16 in South Korea. Oliver Neuville's late goal put Germany through to the quarter-finals. Eleven years later a friendly ended 3-3.
Head-to-head statistics Germany - Paraguay
Germany Team Overview
Germany secured first place in Group E after two games - wins over Curaçao and Côte d'Ivoire. But Nagelsmann barely rotated ahead of round three (only Raum for Brown at left-back and Rüdiger for Schlotterbeck in central defence) and put out essentially his strongest XI against a motivated Ecuador side that needed a win.
Florian Wirtz set up Leroy Sané on two minutes - the same Sané most German fans had been calling to drop. But the game flipped seven minutes later, and Ecuador finished the second half strongly enough to seal the win. An 11-match winning run ended.
What does it tell us? Germany played near their best XI and still got turned over. Some average sides have managed similar. Ecuador scored twice, Côte d'Ivoire got one, and even tournament debutants Curaçao found the net. Does that make Germany less of a favourite against Paraguay? Not really - it's more of a sharp reminder that the coaching staff can't afford complacency in the knockout rounds.
Nagelsmann may make adjustments. Deniz Undav could start ahead of Kai Havertz - he's earned more minutes and many expected him to start against Ecuador anyway, where he only came on for the last half hour. Wirtz, Musiala and Sané should start. The rest of the lineup probably stays the same, with Nathaniel Brown likely returning at left-back for Raum.
Match Results: Germany
Paraguay Team Overview
Paraguay finished exactly where most expected - third in Group D. After the heavy defeat to the US, they somehow beat Turkey on 0.33 xG. In round three a draw was enough, though second place was also possible with a win over Australia. What they got was a goalless stalemate in which Australia were the better side: more possession (56-44%), more shots (12-7), higher xG (0.55 to 0.24) and more corners (3-1).
Paraguay aren't easy to watch. But Alfaro puts results first, not football quality - and showing quality football is a different task entirely against Germany. Almost certainly he'll set up with a back five again - a 5-3-2 where the wing-backs won't push forward much, to avoid leaving space for the German wingers.
The plan will be patience. Wait for the rare chance, as they did against Turkey. There may not be many. And quite possibly the team's target is 0-0 - hold on for extra time, then penalties.
The coaching staff know full well that keeping a clean sheet against this Germany is almost an impossible task. At some point Paraguay will have to push forward trying to get back into it - and their squad quality may not be enough. So they'll rely on their typical style: rare moments and set pieces.
Match Results: Paraguay
Latest news
Germany
🎙 Julian Nagelsmann after the Ecuador defeat: "Please stop this nonsense. Do you think the players didn't want to give everything? Of course we made different substitutions than we would have if we absolutely had to score another goal. But you can't say anyone wasn't trying - that's too superficial a conclusion. We have to learn to play more calmly after a good start and a quick goal, rather than constantly shifting positions. We deliberately made a lot of changes. You could see some players had accumulated fatigue. You can't blame them for being slower. We trust every player in the squad and have to give them the chance to show themselves. A defeat is never good, even if it didn't cost us first place. We'll take the lessons, must get better, but now we need to look forward. We've won a lot of matches, lost one, and now the most important thing is to start the knockout stage well and reach the next round."
🚫 Nathaniel Brown missed the Ecuador match with a muscle complaint alongside the already-absent Schlotterbeck. The medical and coaching staff decided to rest him as a precaution. Nagelsmann is hoping Brown will be available from the last 16, starting with Paraguay.
🔁 Update as of June 29, 13:35 UTC:
- During his pre-match press conference, Julian Nagelsmann highlighted Paraguay's biggest strengths: physical duels, defensive compactness, and disciplined play without the ball. In his view, Germany will need to stay patient and make the most of the few scoring opportunities they are likely to create. Given that Paraguay's first two World Cup matches produced 29 and 30 fouls in total, the market may be underestimating another physical contest. Bookmakers are offering around 1.55 on the match featuring 24-25 or more fouls, which looks like a reasonable line considering both teams' playing styles.
🔁 Update as of June 29, 16:00 UTC:
- In an interview with Sportschau, Julian Nagelsmann revealed that Germany's coaching staff is considering a tactical adjustment for the upcoming match. According to the outlet, the Germans could start with a two-striker setup featuring Kai Havertz and Deniz Undav, while Leon Goretzka is also in contention to reinforce the midfield. Until the official lineups are announced, it may be wise to avoid betting on players' individual statistics, as Germany's tactical changes could significantly alter their roles and playing time.
Paraguay
🎙 Gustavo Alfaro after the Australia match: "We're disappointed with the result because we came here for the win. Now we have to wait for the other results and hope what we've done is enough to go through. We created chances but couldn't take them. In these matches the difference comes down to efficiency in front of goal."
❌ Paraguay are without central midfielder Diego Gómez, who accumulated two yellow cards in the group stage. The good news: after serving his suspension, star man Miguel Almirón returns.
🔁 Update as of June 29, 4:40 UTC:
- Following the news that Germany will be without a key central defender - and amid heavy betting support for the Europeans-the odds on a German victory have shortened from 1.40 to 1.34 over the past 24 hours. In contrast, Paraguay's odds to win in regular time have drifted by around 20%, moving from 8.80 to 10.60. This market movement comes despite Gustavo Alfaro's reminder that Paraguay have already beaten both Brazil and Argentina during the current cycle. The head coach insists his side is confident it can challenge one of the tournament's traditional heavyweights.
Predicted Lineups
Predicted starting XI Germany: Neuer - Kimmich, Tah, Rüdiger, Brown - Nmecha, Pavlović - Sané, Musiala, Wirtz - Havertz
Predicted starting XI Paraguay: Gill - Cáceres, Velázquez, Gómez, Alderete, Maidana - Galarza, Cubas, Bobadilla - Enciso, Almirón
⚽ Goals Prediction
Germany will dominate - and after Nagelsmann's dressing-down they'll want a win that leaves no room for doubt. Paraguay's attack was toothless throughout the group stage and will get very few opportunities to threaten. But creating a chance and scoring are different things. Paraguay not to score at 1.96*.
🟨 Yellow Card Prediction
Germany's players picked up just one yellow card across three group games; Paraguay collected seven. The South Americans also fouled more than their opponents in every group stage match. Expect a similar picture here. Paraguay individual total yellow cards over 1.5 at 1.54*.
🚩 Corner Prediction
Alfaro's Paraguay are one of the most unappealing sides in the tournament stylistically - even some of the other debutants are more watchable. They won just two corners across three matches. Against Germany, Paraguay individual total corners under 3.5 at 1.55*.
😱 Risky Bet
Paraguay's path to an upset runs through a compact defence, a disrupted tempo - lots of fouls, time-wasting, provocation. All of that creates red card risk on both sides. Any emotional reaction to a foul that stops a promising German counter could lead to a sending-off. A red card in the match at 4.61*.
🎯 Safe Bet
Paraguay individual total goals under 1.5 at 1.19* - as safe as it gets. Alfaro's side managed just 1.2 xG across all three group games combined. Germany have conceded more than once in a match in none of their last six.
👀 If the Match Doesn't Go as Planned
Beyond their defensive structure and foul-heavy approach, Paraguay need goalkeeper Orlando Gil to have the match of his life. The 26-year-old sits second in the tournament for saves after three rounds - 17. A clean sheet is unlikely, but a narrow Germany win would still raise eyebrows. Germany individual total goals under 1.5 at 2.55*.
🚀 Player Stat Bet
Florian Wirtz conducts Germany's attack. The 23-year-old hasn't scored at this tournament yet but already has two assists. He may be the one expected to deliver the decisive moment even more than Musiala. Knockout matches are made for leaders to show their true level. Wirtz to score or assist at 1.95*.
*Odds are approximate and may vary across different bookmakers.
Editorial Prediction
Germany's response to the Ecuador defeat needs to be immediate. They need a convincing win to arrive at a potential last-16 clash with France (if they beat Sweden) in the right frame of mind. Paraguay already exceeded expectations just by reaching the knockout stage. There's no alternative scenario where the South Americans even score. Our prediction: Germany -1 handicap. Predicted correct score: 3-0.
No comments
Betting Tips: Germany - Paraguay
in 7 of last 8 games.
in 7 of last 8 games.in last 8 games.in last 6 games.Comparison of Teams Stats
Other predictions
