Sweden vs Poland Prediction 28 September 2026
🔊 Last spring in Solna, Sweden knocked Poland out of World Cup qualification with a Viktor Gyökeres goal on the 88th minute. Now the two sides meet again at the same stadium, though the stakes are lower. Sweden opened their Nations League B group campaign with a win over Romania, while Poland failed to score at home against Bosnia.
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Head-to-Head
📊 In recent years this pair have been deciding World Cup qualification spots between them. Four years ago, in the play-off final, Poland knocked out Sweden with a 2-0 win. In March 2026 it went the other way, again in a decisive match. Sweden went ahead twice, Poland equalised twice - first through Nicola Zalewski, then Karol Świderski. Gyökeres settled it, and Sweden won 3-2.
Head-to-head statistics Sweden - Poland
Sweden Team Overview
At the World Cup, Graham Potter's side reached the Round of 32, where they lost 0-3 to France. Sweden have made a more confident start to the Nations League. On Friday against Romania, both attacking leaders scored: Alexander Isak opened the scoring on 20 minutes, and after Dennis Man's equaliser, Gyökeres restored Sweden's lead before half-time. In the second half, Elliot Stroud added a third, but it was ruled out after a VAR review. Sweden top the group with three points.
Potter's weak point is the defence, and it comes down to personnel. Isaac Hien was injured at the World Cup, while Gustav Lagerbielke, who had played every minute of every official Sweden match in 2026, missed the Romania game with a groin problem. Carl Starfelt and captain Victor Nilsson Lindelöf are currently the central defensive pairing, with limited backup options. Sweden have four matches in 11 days ahead of them, the last two of which are away from home.
Match Results: Sweden
Poland Team Overview
Having lost the play-off final in the spring, Poland missed out on the World Cup and began the Nations League in the second division. Their group campaign got off to a sluggish start: at home against Bosnia, Jan Urban's side failed to score. The visitors held the initiative in the first half, and after the break Matty Cash and Piotr Zieliński were repeatedly denied by goalkeeper Martin Zlomislić.
Urban is searching for a new system. Against Bosnia, Poland started with a back four, with centre-back Jakub Kiwer playing on the left. The experiment did not go well: Kiwer picked up a yellow card and was substituted at half-time, and after Przemysław Frankowski came on, the defence looked better, in the manager's own words. For Robert Lewandowski, this is his first international camp since moving to Chicago Fire, while Zieliński on Friday moved into second place in the all-time caps list for the national team.
Match Results: Poland
Latest news
Sweden
❓ Potter's main concerns are in defence. Lagerbjälke is recovering from a groin injury, while Besfort Zeneli is dealing with a foot strain. Both missed the Romania match, and no final decision has been made on their availability for the Poland game. Isak Hien, Anthony Elanga, Dejan Kulusevski and goalkeeper Jakob WidellZetterström were not included in the squad due to injuries. Mattias Svanberg, Taha Ali and Gustav Nilsson also withdrew before the camp through injury and have been replaced by Hugo Larsson, Williot Swedberg and Paulos Abraham. Defender John Mellberg has been called up from the under-21 side. If Lagerbjälke is not fit in time, Potter may keep the same starting XI that beat Romania. There are no suspensions.
Poland
❓ Urban is dealing with some significant absences. Jakub Kamiński came off in the 24th minute of the match against Bosnia with an adductor injury, and the manager has already confirmed the winger will not play again before the end of the camp. Marcin Bułka is likely to start in goal once more, with Kamil Grabara and Bartłomiej Drągowski both injured. Adrian Benedyczak and Filip Rózga are also out through injury. The main question is the left side of defence, where Urban is choosing between Frankowski, Kiwior and Tymoteusz Puchacz. Zalewski, who replaced Kamiński against Bosnia, is likely to come in for him. There are no suspensions.
Predicted Lineups
📋 Predicted starting XI for Sweden: Johansson - Holm, Starfelt, Nilsson Lindelof, Stroud - Bernhardsson, Bergvall, Ayari, Nanasi - Gyokeres, Isak.
📋 Predicted starting XI for Poland: Bulka - Cash, Potulski, Bednarek, Frankowski - Skoras, Slisz, Zielinski, Zalewski - Szymanski - Lewandowski.
⚽️ Goals Prediction
Sweden have scored two or more goals in seven consecutive Nations League matches. Against Romania, both goals came in the first half, and that is also a consistent pattern: they have scored before the break in six consecutive matches in the tournament. We expect Sweden to score more than once against Poland as well. The bet is Sweden Team Total - Over 1.5.
🚩 Corner Kick Prediction
Poland have won more than three corners in each of their last six away matches in a row. Across their last ten official matches, the Poles earned 58 corners. Sweden's opponents over the same period conceded 44, so the visitors can expect their share of set pieces in the attacking half. The pick is Poland Team Total Corners - Over 3.5.
🟨 Yellow Cards Prediction
The match will be refereed by Spaniard Javier Alberola Rojas. Poland pick up cards more often than Sweden, but not excessively: they have received 19 yellow cards across their last ten official matches. Sweden's opponents over the same period have seen 16 bookings, so teams tend not to get too rough against the Swedes. The bet is Poland Team Total - Under 2.5 Yellow Cards.
🚀 Player Statistics Bet
Viktor Gyökeres has already become a major problem for Poland. Back in March, it was he who scored late on to send Sweden to the World Cup. On Friday against Romania, the striker was on the scoresheet again, putting his side ahead before half-time. The bet is Gyökeres to Score.
😱 Risky Bet
Poland have gone unbeaten in 7 of their last 8 matches. They are rarely beaten heavily: Poland have not lost by more than one goal in 12 consecutive matches. The risk is fair: in the Nations League, Poland have gone six matches in a row without a win, while Sweden are unbeaten in eight consecutive matches in the competition. But if there is a place to chase a near-double odds, this is it. The bet is Poland not to lose at 1.96*.
🎯 Reliable Bet
Two or more goals have been scored in 12 of Sweden's last 13 home matches. Poland show the same pattern across six consecutive away matches. Across all competitions, Sweden have a run of nine consecutive matches with two or more goals, while Poland have seen it in 9 of their last 10. The odds are modest, but there is almost no doubt here. The bet is Total Goals - Over 1.5 at 1.22*.
👀 If the match doesn't go to plan
Our scenario is Sweden winning by a single goal, with Poland contributing one goal of their own. It falls apart if the Poles play as cautiously as they did against Bosnia and shut down the centre. In that case, Sweden would have to break down a compact defence and the game could turn into a grinding affair. The markets would shift towards Total Goals - Under 2.5 and a Sweden clean-sheet win. Keep those in mind for in-play betting if the score is still level at half-time.
*Odds are indicative and may vary across different bookmakers.
📌 Editorial Prediction
Sweden have conceded in 13 consecutive matches across all competitions. For Poland, this is a good opportunity: they have scored in six consecutive away matches. Sweden are doing their part too, having failed to score in none of their last ten Nations League matches. The goalless draw with Bosnia is more of an exception - Poland have scored in 14 of their last 15 matches. We expect goals at both ends and a narrow home win. The bet is Both Teams to Score - Yes. Predicted score: 2-1.
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Betting Tips: Sweden - Poland
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in 7 of last 8 games.
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