Georgia vs Ukraine Prediction 28 September 2026
🔉 Georgia host Ukraine in the first match under their new manager: Ramaz Svanadze has taken charge following a painful home defeat in the UEFA Nations League. Ukraine arrive as group leaders but must do without the suspended Nazarenko. For Georgia, this is a chance to show they can turn things around immediately; for Ukraine, it is a chance to prove that Andrea Maldera's pragmatic style works against more than just Hungary.
Head-to-Head
📊 The two sides have met twice in the Nations League. In autumn 2024, Ukraine won the home fixture 1-0, while the match on Georgian soil ended 1-1.
Head-to-head statistics Georgia - Ukraine
Georgia: Coaching Change Midway Through the Tournament
Against Northern Ireland, Georgia had the better of possession - 62/38 - and pressed forward consistently, winning nine corners to one. But they could not turn that pressure into goals. The decisive moment came on 65 minutes: Kvaratskhelia stepped up for a penalty but struck it weakly along the ground and the goalkeeper saved comfortably. Tension continued to build, and in the 90+5th minute Kvaratskhelia was booked, before Northern Ireland scored from a cross in the 90+9th minute to take all three points.
Willy Sagnol resigned immediately after the match, terminating his contract that had run until 2028. New head coach Ramaz Svanadze now faces the difficult task of quickly restoring confidence to the squad. For Kvaratskhelia, the upcoming match is a chance to put that painful episode behind him and reassert himself as the team's leader on the pitch.
Match Results: Georgia
Ukraine: Maldera Enjoys a Successful Debut
Andrea Maldera became the first foreign coach in the history of the Ukraine national team, taking charge in May 2026. The Italian is well acquainted with Ukrainian football, having previously worked as Shevchenko's assistant before gaining further experience alongside De Zerbi at Brighton and Marseille. For Maldera, making an immediate case for his appointment is important.
In his first match in charge, Ukraine beat Hungary in Budapest (1-0): the winning goal came on the 42nd minute from Sykan, who headed home a cross from Sudakov. The key feature was a pragmatic approach - Maldera set up a compact 4-3-3 in which Ocheretko, Brazhko and Sudakov controlled the midfield, with Tsygankov and Vanat providing width on the flanks. Late on, Nazarenko was sent off for a reckless foul, which sparked a confrontation in which several players on both sides received cards.
Match Results: Ukraine
Latest news
Georgia
Ramaz Svanadze has been appointed head coach of the national team on a contract running to the end of 2028. He previously managed Georgia's under-21 side, guiding them to the U21 European Championship twice. The match against Ukraine will be his first in charge of the senior team.
Ukraine
Nazarenko is suspended for the match against Georgia - the loss of a creative midfielder who could have added to the attacking play. Yarmolenko and Zubkov were on the bench in Budapest and did not come on; Malder may use them in Tbilisi. Goalkeeper Riznyk performed confidently and will likely start again.
Predicted Lineups
Predicted starting XI for Georgia: Mamardashvili - Lochoshvili, Dvali, Goglichidze - Kakabadze, Kochorashvili, Mekvabishvili, Chakvetadze - Kvernadze, Mikautadze - Kvaratskhelia
Predicted starting XI for Ukraine: Riznyk - Krupskyi, Zabarnyi, Matviienko, Mykolenko - Brazhko, Ocheretko - Sudakov - Vanat, Tsygankov - Sikan
🟨 Yellow Cards Prediction
The Nations League 2024/25 meetings between these sides have produced plenty of bookings - the match in Batumi alone saw six yellow cards. The temperature could rise further here: Ukraine got off to a winning start and are targeting top spot in the group, while Georgia come into this under a new manager, at home, in front of their own fans, and on an emotional edge. Prediction: Total Yellow Cards - Over 4.5 at 2.25*.
⚽️ Goals Prediction
At least two goals have been scored in 10 of Georgia's last 11 matches. Ukraine have gone over 1.5 goals in 14 of their last 15 away matches, and they have scored in 8 of their previous 9 Nations League games. Georgia, meanwhile, have conceded at home in 7 of their last 8 matches - their defence is far from solid, and both sides are accustomed to playing in high-scoring games. The pick is Total Goals - Over 1.5 at 1.35*.
🚩 Corners Prediction
There have been at least nine corners in 6 of Georgia's last 7 Nations League matches - they are used to pressing down the flanks and winning set pieces. Ukraine have been restrained in the corner count away from home, with no more than four corners in 6 of their last 7 away matches. But even accounting for the visitors' caution, Georgia's own pressure could be enough to push the overall total up. The bet is Total Corners - Over 8.5 at 1.80*.
🚀 Player Statistics Bet
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia is Georgia's main attacking weapon. After missing a penalty and picking up a yellow card late on against Northern Ireland, he left the pitch to a wave of criticism, and the manager who had fielded him promptly resigned. In both previous matches against Ukraine, Kvaratskhelia was at the centre of things - a goal was ruled out for offside in Poznań, and in Batumi the attacks were built through him. At home, under a new manager, and fired up, he will be looking for his moment and taking the game on himself. The bet: Kvaratskhelia to Score at 3.08*.
🎯 Safe Bet
Georgia have conceded at home in 7 of their last 8 matches, and Ukraine have scored in 8 of their previous 9 Nations League games. Under Malderen, the visitors create chances even in a pragmatic setup - a single strike was enough to beat Hungary in Budapest. Even in a cautious scenario, Ukraine to Score at 1.32* looks likely.
😱 Risky Bet
In Batumi the two sides drew 1-1 in an even contest. Georgia under their new manager may set up more cautiously, and Ukraine will lose some of their creative edge in attack without Nazarenko. If the hosts take the initiative but fail to convert their chances, a Draw at 3.19* is an interesting, if risky, option.
👀 If the Match Goes Off Script
Georgia have lost five matches in a row, and their manager has only just taken charge. Ukraine arrive on the back of a win and with their sights set on leading the group. If the visitors score first and sit back, the hosts may simply lack the fresh ideas needed to turn the game around. The alternative to the main prediction is Ukraine to Win at 2.70*.
*Odds are indicative and may vary across different bookmakers.
⭐ Editorial Prediction
Two consistent trends shape the picture here: Georgia have conceded at home in 7 of their last 8 matches, while Ukraine have failed to keep a clean sheet away from home in 12 consecutive games. These figures point to a high likelihood of both sides scoring - even accounting for the cautious approach of new coach Svanidze and Maldera's pragmatic style. Restraining factors exist, but the defensive vulnerability of both teams remains the defining element. The main bet is Both Teams to Score - Yes. Predicted score: 1-1.
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Betting Tips: Georgia - Ukraine
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