Fluminense vs Botafogo Prediction 28 September 2025
🔊 The Maracanã in Rio de Janeiro will host Brazil's oldest derby as part of the 25th round of the championship, where Fluminense will face Botafogo. This clash is always marked by emotion and tension. Fluminense aim to leverage their home advantage to extend their unbeaten streak and improve their league standing, while Botafogo are eager to solidify their position at the top of the table and continue their pursuit of high rankings. Although Botafogo have secured victories in their last eight encounters with Fluminense, success is not guaranteed in this match. A fierce battle for ball control and territory is expected, with everything potentially decided only at the final whistle.
Head-to-Head
The last official clash between these teams took place on 27 April 2025 and ended with a 2-0 scoreline. Here's a comparative breakdown of the stats from that encounter (Botafogo were the home side):
- possession: 39% vs 61%;
- corners: 6 vs 3;
- fouls: 21 vs 9;
- yellow cards: 4 vs 4;
- shots on target: 7 vs 1.
📊 Statistical preview of the official encounters between Fluminense and Botafogo:
- 59 matches played;
- home team wins: 19, away team wins: 24, draws: 16;
- goals scored: 54 against 60;
- average goals in the first half: 0.78, in the second half: 1.15;
- average total goals per match: 1.93.
Head-to-head statistics Fluminense - Botafogo
Fluminense Team Overview
The team's last official match took place on in the South American Cup, with Fluminense hosting Lanus. The game ended in a 1-1 draw.
Here are the match statistics (Fluminense vs. Lanus):
- possession: 71% vs. 29%;
- corner kicks: 5 vs. 1;
- fouls: 11 vs. 13;
- yellow cards: 3 vs. 1;
- shots on target: 7 vs. 2.
🔴 In the latest round of the championship, Fluminense secured a 1-0 away victory over Vitoria. This win bolstered their position in the upper half of the Serie A standings. Currently, Flu sit in 8th place, securing a spot in the Copa Sudamericana for the next season.
🏆 However, Renato Gaúcho's squad approach the upcoming match in low spirits after being knocked out by Argentina's Lanús in the Copa Sudamericana quarter-finals. Following a frustrating last-minute 1-0 loss in the first leg in Argentina, Fluminense couldn't hold onto their lead in the home leg, drawing 1-1. This left them with a bitter feeling ahead of their clash with Botafogo.
Match Results: Fluminense
Botafogo FR Team Overview
The visitors last played an official match on in the Serie A tournament, where they faced Gremio away. The game ended in a 1-1 draw.
Here's the match stats (Botafogo vs Gremio):
- possession percentage: 54% vs 46%;
- corner kicks: 1 vs 7;
- fouls: 17 vs 7;
- yellow cards: 2 vs 1;
- shots on target: 4 vs 4.
⚫ In the 24th round of Serie A, Botafogo secured a 1-0 victory at home against Atletico Mineiro. Four days later, they played a rescheduled 16th-round match away against Gremio, which ended in a 1-1 draw. Despite the tight schedule, Botafogo managed to earn a crucial point on the road, maintaining their steady position in the standings. Currently, Davide Ancelotti's team holds the fifth spot with 40 points.
⭐ The club's prospects remain positive, although Botafogo has shown less confidence in recent away matches. A draw with Vasco da Gama in the Cup (1-1) was followed by a defeat to Sao Paulo (0-1) in the league and another draw in their away clash with Gremio. Nevertheless, the "Lone Star" continues to chase the surprisingly fourth-placed newcomers Mirassol, trailing them by two points but with a game in hand.
Match Results: Botafogo FR
Outcome Prediction
Head-to-Head Matches:
- Total encounters - 59;
- Home wins - 19, Away wins - 24, Draws - 16.
Statistics: Fluminense vs Botafogo
- Matches played in the tournament: 22 vs 24;
- Wins: 9 vs 11;
- Win percentage: 41% vs 46%;
- Losses: 9 vs 6;
- Draws: 4 vs 7.
Last 10 Matches:
- Wins: 4 vs 3;
- Losses: 4 vs 4;
- Draws: 2 vs 3.
- Botafogo have avoided defeat in 7 of their last 8 matches.
Total Goals Prediction
Head-to-Head Matches:
- The home side averages - 0.92 goals, the visitors - 1.02;
- Average total goals in head-to-head encounters - 1.93;
- Both teams scored: overall - 25 times; at the home team's venue - 11 times.
Statistics: Fluminense vs Botafogo
- Average total in the tournament: 2.5 vs 2.21;
- Average goals scored: 1.18 vs 1.46;
- Average first-half total: 0.45 vs 0.67;
- Average second-half total: 0.73 vs 0.79;
- Fluminense: average home total in the tournament - 1.2;
- Botafogo: average away total in the tournament - 1.08;
- Last 10 matches (average total): 1 (home - 1.4) vs 1.4 (away - 1).
- Total goals under 2.5 has occurred in Fluminense's last 7 matches consecutively.
- Total goals under 2.5 has occurred in Fluminense's last 6 of 7 home matches.
- Total goals under 2.5 has occurred in Botafogo's last 13 of 15 away matches.
Corners Prediction
Fluminense: Statistics
- Season: average total in the tournament - 4.55; at home - 5.6;
- Last 10 matches: average total - 4.4; at home - 3.
Botafogo: Statistics
- Season: average total in the tournament - 4.75, away - 3.92;
- Last 10 matches: average total - 4.6; away - 2.6.
- Total corners under 9.5 has occurred in Fluminense's last 5 home matches consecutively.
- Total corners under 9.5 has occurred in Botafogo's last 5 away matches consecutively.
Cards Prediction
Head-to-Head Matches
- Average yellow cards in head-to-head matches - 3.46 (1.73 for the home team and 1.73 for the visitors);
- Average yellow cards at the home venue - 3.88 (1.94 for the home team and 1.94 for the visitors).
Fluminense: Statistics
- Season: average total in the tournament - 2; at home - 1.5;
- Last 10 matches: average total - 2.1; at home - 1.8.
Botafogo: Statistics
- Season: average total in the tournament - 2.17, away - 2.33;
- Last 10 matches: average total - 2.3; away - 2.6.
Both Teams to Score Prediction
Head-to-Head Matches:
- Total encounters - 59;
- Both teams scored overall - 25 times;
- At the home team's venue - 11 times.
Statistics: Fluminense vs Botafogo
- Total matches played in the tournament: 22 vs 24;
- Total matches in the season where both teams scored (BTTS): 11 vs 7;
- BTTS for Fluminense at home - 6 (60%);
- BTTS for Botafogo away - 2 (17%).
Last 10 Matches:
- Total BTTS matches: 3 vs 6;
- BTTS for Fluminense at home - 2 (40%);
- BTTS for Botafogo away - 3 (60%).
⭐ Editorial Prediction
Despite Botafogo's edge in previous encounters, this derby promises to be tense and unpredictable. Fluminense will be banking on their home advantage. Botafogo are in steady form; however, they have failed to secure a win in their last three away fixtures, which undermines their confidence on the road. Expect a fierce battle for ball possession and territory, where every mistake could prove decisive. Considering the current form of both teams and the traditionally cautious nature of derbies (average total of 1.93), this match is likely to be low-scoring. Our prediction: under 2.5 goals. This outcome has occurred in 7 consecutive Fluminense games and in 13 of Botafogo's last 15 away matches. The visitors might manage a ninth victory over Fluminense with a 1-0 scoreline.
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Betting Tips: Fluminense - Botafogo FR
in 7 of last 8 games.
in last 7 Fluminense games.in 6 of last 7 Fluminense home games.in 13 of last 15 Botafogo FR away games.
in 6 of last 7 Ramon Abatti Abel games.in 9 of last 10 games.in 7 of last 8 home games (Serie A).
Comparison of Teams Stats
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