Riga vs Vardar Prediction 28 July 2026
🔊 The second leg of the Conference League qualifier between Latvian side Riga and Macedonian club Vardar takes place on Tuesday at Skonto Stadium in Riga. After a fiery first leg in Skopje - where the Latvians grabbed a win on the road - the tie is still alive, but the home side now hold a significant advantage.
Head-to-Head
The first leg took place 22 July 2026 and ended in a Riga win (3:2). It's the only meeting between these two clubs. Here's how the stats looked in that match (Vardar were the home side):
- possession: 53% vs 47%;
- corners: 3 vs 3;
- fouls: 17 vs 27;
- yellow cards: 2 vs 4;
- shots on target: 6 vs 7.
Head-to-head statistics Riga - Vardar
Riga Team Overview
Riga are in good form right now. The Latvian domestic season is in full swing, so Adrian Guła's players are in peak physical condition. They score regularly at home, and the win in Skopje gave the squad a psychological boost. They're clearly playing with confidence. The home record backs that up: in 8 of their last 9 home matches, the total went over 2.5 goals, and they're averaging 2.3 goals per game over their last ten. Seven straight home wins. That's not a run you ignore.
Match Results: Riga
Vardar Skopje Team Overview
Vardar's last official match was in the First League of North Macedonia, a 2-0 win over Bregalnica Shtip. Here are the stats from that game (Vardar vs Bregalnica Shtip):
- possession: 58% vs 42%;
- corners: 3 vs 7;
- fouls: 12 vs 10;
- yellow cards: 1 vs 3;
- shots on target: 4 vs 3.
Vardar look the more tired and mentally beaten of the two. Back-to-back European exits against KuPS and Riga have done a number on the squad's morale. The main issue is the defence - they've been shipping two or three goals in almost every international outing. That said, with Rodrigues leading the attack, they're capable of hitting back, so sitting deep in Latvia makes little sense for the visitors.
Match Results: Vardar Skopje
Prediction on Outcome
Trends- Vardar have covered the +1.5 handicap in 17 consecutive away matches.
Prediction on Total
Average total stats: Riga vs Vardar
- last 10 matches: 2.3 (home - 3) vs 2.9 (away - 3.25).
- Over 2.5 goals has landed in 8 of Riga's last 9 home matches.
- Over 2.5 goals has landed in 5 Vardar matches in a row (Conference League).
⭐ Editor's Prediction
Vardar have nothing to lose after the home defeat, so they'll push forward from the first minute and leave space at the back. Riga are clinical in attack, and with the crowd behind them and gaps opening up, they'll find their moments. Both defenses have been shaky - we saw that a week ago - so three goals between them shouldn't be a problem. The bet is total goals over 2.5 with an expected score of 2:1 to the hosts.
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Betting Tips: Riga - Vardar Skopje
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Comparison of Teams Stats
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