UD Castellonense vs Almeria Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 27 October 2026
🔊 Castellonense host Almería in the first round of the Copa del Rey, and for the home side it is a serious test. The fourth-division club have been performing well in their league and are yet to drop points at home. Almería, though, have also hit good form and are among the leading sides in Segunda. The visitors have a considerably stronger squad, but the cup format gives the hosts a chance of an upset. It will be particularly interesting to see whether Castellonense can maintain their home reliability against an opponent of this quality.
A fresh start
❌ The two sides have never played each other before.
Castellonense remain unbeaten at home
In their most recent Segunda B match, Castellonense won 2-0 away at Intercity. The hosts had more shots (13-9) and significantly more possession (63% to 37%), but Castellonense kept a clean sheet, helped in part by five saves.
Castellonense have made a strong start to the season in the Segunda Federación and sit second in their group after seven rounds. The team have won five and lost two, scoring 12 goals and conceding just 6. Their average of 1.71 goals per game is complemented by a defence that concedes fewer than one per match. At home in particular, they have won all three of their league fixtures and kept a clean sheet in each. Against Almería, however, maintaining that kind of solidity will be considerably harder, with two divisions separating the two sides.
Match Results: UD Castellonense
Almería are unbeaten in eight straight matches
Leading 2-0 at half-time, Almería drew 2-2 at home to Real Oviedo in their last Segunda match. The visitors significantly outperformed them in shots (20-7) and expected goals (2.08 vs 0.78), but were unable to take all three points.
Almería have hit impressive form and are serious contenders to return to La Liga. After 11 rounds, they sit second in Segunda División with 25 points, having won eight matches, drawn one and lost two. They have scored 22 goals and conceded just 9 - an average of 2.0 and 0.82 per game respectively. Particularly notable is their current run of eight matches without defeat, seven of which have been wins. Away from home, they are not always as prolific, though their solid defence allows them to get results even without scoring freely.
Match Results: Almeria
Match Result Prediction
Almería have won seven of their last eight league matches and have given opponents very little to work with. In 11 rounds they have suffered just two defeats, with a goal difference of +13. Castellonense have also been performing well in their division, but have already lost twice in seven matches. At home the hosts have been perfect so far, winning all three of their league games. Holding that record against one of Segunda's leading sides will not be easy, though, which is why the pick is Almería to win at 1.41*.
Total Goals Prediction
Castellonense have been fairly solid defensively at home, keeping a clean sheet in all three of their home league matches this season. In each of those games, the opposition managed no more than three goals in total. Almería have also shown decent defensive organisation, conceding just 9 goals in 11 Segunda División rounds. That said, the visitors can be involved in higher-scoring matches, particularly when opponents allow them to attack freely. Castellonense will likely look to avoid an open game, which is why our pick is Total Goals - Under 3.5 at 1.40*.
Safer Bet
Almería are unbeaten in their last eight matches, winning seven of them. Over that run they have shown the ability to get results even in difficult games, and across the whole season they have conceded just nine goals. Castellonense, for their part, have won all three of their home league matches, so the hosts should not be underestimated. However, the gap in quality remains significant, and Almería's current form makes it reasonable to expect them to extend their unbeaten run at the very least. We're backing Almería not to lose at 1.14*.
*Odds are indicative and may vary across different bookmakers.
Correct Score Prediction
According to the algorithm's calculations, the most likely scorelines are 0-1 (12.5%), 1-1 (10.52%) and 0-2 (9.7%). The 0-1 result has the highest probability, but the gap between first and third is minimal, which points to a fairly even distribution of probability across these outcomes.
⭐ Editorial Prediction
Almería look like deserved favourites given their strong squad, solid defence and impressive unbeaten run. That said, Castellonense can defend too, particularly at home, where they are yet to concede in the league. The hosts will almost certainly look to stay compact and make life as difficult as possible for the visitors going forward. Almería are capable of winning through individual quality, but there is no reason to expect a heavy defeat. Given the defensive records of both sides and the cup nature of the fixture, goals may not come in abundance. Predicted score: 0-1. Main bet: Total Goals - Under 2.5.
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Betting Tips: UD Castellonense - Almeria
in 7 of last 8 games.
in last 8 games.in 21 of last 23 home games.
in 21 of last 22 home games.Comparison of Teams Stats
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