Holstein Kiel vs Hoffenheim Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 28 October 2026
🔊 Exactly a year ago, Holstein knocked Wolfsburg - then still a Bundesliga club - out of the DFB-Pokal (1-0). Now, in the second round, it is Hoffenheim making the trip to Kiel. The hosts have little to boast about, though: they only picked up their first league win of the season on Sunday. The visitors, meanwhile, have gone three matches without defeat, the last of which was a heavy win over Bayer. Will home advantage be enough for Holstein to repeat last year's script?
Head-to-Head
📊 Hoffenheim have won all three official meetings between these sides, leading by two goals at half-time in each one. The teams first met in the second round of the DFB-Pokal: in 2021, Holstein lost 1-5 away. That said, Kiel have scored in every one of those meetings.
Head-to-head statistics Holstein Kiel - Hoffenheim
Holstein: First Win and a Fortress at Home
Holstein didn't pick up their first win in the 2. Bundesliga until the ninth matchday. Before that, Tim Walter's side had collected five points, all from draws. The turnaround came against Dynamo Dresden (3-0), though the scoreline flattered the hosts. On expected goals, the visitors came out ahead - 2.33 to 1.70 - and goalkeeper Timon Weiner saved a penalty from Niklas Hauptmann.
Walter made four changes to his starting XI for the Dresden game, and it paid off. Georgian forward Giorgi Kvilitaia opened the scoring in the ninth minute - with his very first shot in the 2. Bundesliga. Holstein now sit 13th with eight points, and their home ground has been their foundation: they are unbeaten in five league home matches and have kept clean sheets in the last two of those.
Match Results: Holstein Kiel
Hoffenheim: Three Wins in a Week, but Fragile on the Road
One week turned Hoffenheim's autumn around. In October, Christian Ilzer's side lost two home games in a row - to Hamburg in the league and to Beşiktaş in the Europa League, conceding three goals in each. Three consecutive wins followed. In the Bundesliga table, Hoffenheim have climbed to tenth place with nine points.
Against Bayer, Hoffenheim showed they can be resilient. They held firm for a long time, and all three goals came late. The hero of the match was veteran Andrej Kramarić, who came off the bench. The Croatian converted a penalty awarded after a VAR review and provided two assists. Away from home, Hoffenheim have not shown the same solidity: of their four away matches in the Bundesliga and Europa League, they have lost three.
Match Results: Hoffenheim
Latest news
Holstein Kiel
❓ Defender Sebastian Schonlau is out, as are Frederik Røsler with a meniscus injury and Hamza Muqay. Lasse Rosenbom, Steven Skrzybski and Taisei Abe are doubtful.
Hoffenheim
❓ Through injury, Ilzer will be without Albian Ajeti and Patrick Wimmer. Nathan De Medina and Tim Lemperle are doubts. Alexander Prass's suspension for his red card in the match against Bayer applies only to the Bundesliga, so the Austrian is available for the cup.
Predicted Lineups
📋 Predicted starting XI for Holstein: Weiner - Sakiné, Madsen, Zec, Parduzi - de Regt, Davidsen, Kaprálík, Meffert - Kvelitaia, Harres.
📋 Predicted starting XI for Hoffenheim: Baumann - Zoufal, Kabak, Matida, Rots - Avdullahu, Bürger, Prass, Hlożek, Asllani - Dagim.
Total Goals Prediction
Hoffenheim have conceded in 11 of their last 12 away matches. In the Bundesliga and Europa League this season, Ilzer's side have not kept a clean sheet on the road once - even their win at Mönchengladbach came with a goal conceded. Holstein, meanwhile, do score at home: in five league matches at their ground, the only time they failed to find the net was a goalless draw with Hertha. We expect Kiel to score in the cup as well. The bet is Holstein to Score: Yes at 1.43*.
Corners Prediction
Holstein have taken more than three corners at home in 13 of their last 14 matches. The one exception was against Hertha, when they managed just one. Hoffenheim tend not to restrict opponents' corners: their last 10 official matches have seen opponents earn 49 corners between them. We expect Holstein to reach at least four here. The bet is Holstein Team Corners - Over 3.5.
Yellow Cards Prediction
In 8 of Holstein's last 10 official matches, referees have shown five or more yellow cards. Holstein's players received 32 yellows over that run, with opponents picking up 25. Hoffenheim have had five such matches in their last ten, and their own players have collected twice as many cards as their opponents: 26 against 13. We're not expecting a quiet evening in the cup. The bet is Total Yellow Cards - Over 4.5.
📌 Editorial Prediction
Hoffenheim are the favourites, but their attack struggles away from home. Ilzer's side scored more than two goals in just one of their last nine away matches. Holstein, meanwhile, rarely lose heavily: they have been beaten by a margin of two or more goals in only one of their last 11 matches. We expect the visitors to score, but not to pull two goals clear of the hosts. The bet is Holstein to win with Handicap +1.5. Predicted score: 2-2.
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Betting Tips: Holstein Kiel - Hoffenheim
in 8 of last 9 home games.
in 23 of last 24 Holstein Kiel home games.in 7 of last 8 Hoffenheim away games.in 19 of last 20 games.in 11 of last 12 Hoffenheim games.Comparison of Teams Stats
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