Gremio vs Bolivar Prediction 30 July 2026
🔊 Gremio host Bolivar in the Copa Sudamericana playoff second leg at Arena do Gremio in Porto Alegre. The first match in La Paz ended 3-2 to the Bolivian side, so the Brazilians need to turn it around at home. The visitors hold a narrow advantage, but Gremio are the favourites here - home ground, stronger squad.
Head-to-Head
📊 The first official meeting between these sides was an eventful one - Bolivar won it 3-2. The Bolivians were ahead inside two minutes through Martin Cauteruccio, but Gremio levelled quickly through Matias Villasanti. Robson Mateus put Bolivar back in front, then Tete made it 2-2 - all of that done by the 23rd minute. After the break, Dairon Asprilla scored the winner. Bolivar were the more active side throughout: 56% possession, 31 shots to Gremio's 13, and both teams had six corners each.
Head-to-head statistics Gremio - Bolivar
Gremio Team Overview
The defeat in the first leg was a setback for Vitor Severino's side, but not a disaster. Grêmio scored twice away from home in the altitude of La Paz and now get to settle this tie on their own ground. The main advantage is the Arena Grêmio crowd. At home, the Immortal Tricolor have gone unbeaten in 17 of their last 19 matches. They'll need to take the game to Bolívar, control possession and push higher up the pitch than they did in Bolivia.
Grêmio have scored in nine straight matches, though keeping the balance matters here - Bolívar have already shown they can hurt you on the counter and punish mistakes. The hosts create chances regularly at home, but the priority is not to repeat the defensive lapses from the first leg, where they gave the visitors far too many looks at goal. If they fall behind, they'll open up - which should give the match some pace.
Match Results: Gremio
Club Bolivar Team Overview
Bolivar travel to Brazil with a narrow advantage - enough to give them some tactical flexibility. In the first leg, they made full use of home conditions and were aggressive going forward. The Bolivians had 31 shots, 10 on target, and their expected goals figure was well above Gremio's - 4.17 xG to 1.24. Now the task is different: absorb Gremio's early pressure. Bolivar will likely sit deeper, looking to hit on the counter and exploit space in behind. One goal conceded puts the hosts in a very difficult spot.
The chances of Alejandro Restrepo's side scoring at least once are fairly high - Bolivar have found the net in 18 of their last 20 away matches. Sitting back and protecting the lead entirely would be risky. Gremio's defence made errors in the first leg, and the visitors will be looking for their moments going forward. That sets up a match with goals - especially given that more than two have been scored in 6 of Bolivar's last 7 games.
Match Results: Club Bolivar
🟨 Yellow Cards Prediction
The second leg should be a more intense affair than the first. Grêmio will have to push forward and compete hard in duels, while Bolívar will look to slow things down and use tactical fouls to break up attacks. Given the high stakes and the home side's need to take risks, the most logical angle here is increased card activity. Prediction: total yellow cards over 3.5.
⚽ Goals Prediction
Grêmio have to come out aggressive after losing the first leg, so a tight, low-scoring game seems unlikely. Bolívar already showed they can create chances against a strong side, and the Brazilians need at least two goals to go through without drama. The first match ended with five goals between them, and now Grêmio have the home crowd behind them. We're backing total goals over 2.5 at 1.62*.
🚩 Corners Prediction
The first match ended with six corners apiece, and the return leg looks set up for even more set pieces. Grêmio will spend more time pushing forward, loading up Bolívar's box and working the flanks. The visitors can earn their own corners too, though - quick breaks off turnovers. The pick is total corners over 8.5 at 1.44*.
*Odds are approximate and may vary depending on the bookmaker.
⭐ Editorial prediction
Grêmio need to overturn the deficit, so the hosts will look to take control from the opening minutes and create maximum pressure. Bolívar did not get the most comfortable scenario before the return leg, and keeping the advantage against a motivated opponent at the Arena do Grêmio will be extremely difficult.
We expect an open game with chances at both ends: the Brazilians will attack actively, while the visitors will have space for counter-attacks. The main editorial prediction is - both teams to score (yes). Expected score - 2:1.
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Betting Tips: Gremio - Club Bolivar
in 17 of last 19 home games.
in 18 of last 20 away games.in 15 of last 16 games.in 11 of last 12 home games.in 6 of last 7 games (Copa Sudamericana).in last 5 games.
in 9 of last 10 Club Bolivar away games.
Comparison of Teams Stats
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