Marseille vs Brest Prediction 27 April 2025
🔊 Will the "Pirates" thwart the Champions League ambitions of the "Southerners"? In the 31st round of Ligue 1, Brest travel to the Orange Vélodrome in Marseille, aiming to avenge their humiliating 1-5 home defeat from the first half of the season. Meanwhile, Marseille need to prove they are ready to represent France in next season's Champions League. A heated battle awaits us.
Head-to-Head
The last official match between the teams took place on 17 August 2024 and ended with a scoreline of 1-5. Here's the comparative stats from that encounter: Marseille vs Brest
- possession percentage: 55% vs 45%;
- corners: 5 vs 0;
- yellow cards: 4 vs 1;
- shots on target: 5 vs 5;
- fouls: 11 vs 6.
📊 Statistical preview of official encounters between Marseille and Brest:
- 10 matches played;
- home wins - 6, away wins - 3, draws - 1;
- goals scored - 22 against 12;
- average total in the first half - 1.2, second half - 2.2;
- average total goals per match - 3.4.
Head-to-head statistics Marseille - Brest
Olympique Marseille Team Overview
The team's last official match took place on as part of the Ligue 1 tournament, with Marseille playing at home against Montpellier. The match concluded with a 5-1 scoreline.
Here are the game statistics (Marseille vs Montpellier):
- possession percentage: 68% vs 32%;
- corner kicks: 8 vs 2;
- fouls: 11 vs 11;
- yellow cards: 2 vs 2;
- shots on target: 7 vs 1.
⚪️ Marseille have solidified their position in the top three with four matches remaining, a spot that grants direct entry to the Champions League without the need for qualifiers. They hold a two-point lead over fourth place and are four points clear of the precarious fifth spot. While this provides some confidence, their rivals are not backing down and will fight until the end. Marseille's schedule is challenging. After facing Brest, they will travel to Lille and Le Havre, followed by a home game against Rennes. Against Brest, nothing short of a victory will suffice for the southerners.
🔝 Three Marseille players earned spots in the Ligue 1 Team of the Week following Matchday 30. Right winger Mason Greenwood, who scored twice against Montpellier, right-back Michael Murillo, who provided an assist, and left-back Ulisses Garcia, who also recorded an assist, all made the cut.
❌ Roberto De Zerbi faces no significant squad issues. However, team captain and central defender Leonardo Balerdi is doubtful for the match. Long-term absentees include central defender Chancel Mbemba and goalkeeper Ruben Blanco, who remain unavailable due to injuries.
Match Results: Olympique Marseille
Stade Brest Team Overview
The visitors' most recent official match took place on in Ligue 1, where Brest hosted Lens. The match ended with a scoreline of 1-3.
Here are the match statistics (Brest vs Lens):
- possession: 44% vs 56%;
- corner kicks: 7 vs 6;
- fouls: 11 vs 11;
- yellow cards: 0 vs 0;
- shots on target: 5 vs 8.
🔴 The "Pirates" surprisingly fell to Lens at home in the last round (1-3), effectively ending their campaign for this season. The team now lacks any tournament motivation, as they sit 7 points away from the European spots with just 4 matches remaining, making it unlikely to bridge that gap. However, the upcoming match offers a chance to spoil Marseille's season and seek revenge for their earlier 5-1 defeat. Head coach Eric Roy won't need to do much to fire up his players for this one.
🔗 Brest's head coach Eric Roy has his contract set to expire in June, and the team's performance towards the end of the season will heavily influence whether it's renewed. Roy has expressed his desire to continue, but the decision rests with the club's management.
❌ There's uncertainty over the participation of key attacking player Ludovic Ajorque (12 goals, 1 assist in 27 matches) and long-injured center-back Soumaïla Coulibaly. Key players will miss the clash against Marseille due to suspensions: center-back Abdoulaye Ndiaye and goalkeeper Marco Bizot. Left winger Ibrahim Salah, along with left-backs Justin Burgo and Bradley Locko, remain long-term absentees and will not feature.
Match Results: Stade Brest
Prediction on the outcome
H2H:
- number of encounters - 10;
- home team wins - 6, away team wins - 3, draws - 1.
Statistics: Olympique Marseille vs Stade Brest
- number of matches played in the tournament: 30 vs 30;
- number of wins: 17 vs 13;
- win percentage: 57% vs 43%;
- number of losses: 9 vs 12;
- number of draws: 4 vs 5.
Last 10 matches:
- number of wins: 5 vs 3;
- number of losses: 5 vs 4;
- number of draws: 0 vs 3.
- Stade Brest won with a +1.5 handicap in 9 of last 10 games (Ligue 1).
- Stade Brest won with a +1.5 handicap in 8 of last 9 games.
- Stade Brest won with a +1.5 handicap in 7 of last 8 away games.
Prediction on the over/under
H2H
- today's home team scores on average - 2.2, the guests - 1.2;
- average Over/Under goals in H2H matches - 3.4;
- both teams scored: overall - 8; at the home team's field - 4.
Statistics: Olympique Marseille vs Stade Brest
- average total in the tournament: 3.47 vs 3.23;
- average total goals scored: 2.07 vs 1.6;
- average total in the 1st half: 0.67 vs 0.87;
- average total in the 2nd half: 1.4 vs 0.73;
- Olympique Marseille: average total at home in the tournament - 2.2;
- Stade Brest: average total away in the tournament - 1.33;
- last 10 matches (average total): 1.9 (home - 3) vs 1.5 (away - 1.6).
- Olympique Marseille have conceded in 9 of last 10 games against Stade Brest (Ligue 1).
- Olympique Marseille have conceded in 13 of last 14 home games.
- Olympique Marseille have conceded in 12 of last 13 home games (Ligue 1).
- Olympique Marseille have conceded in 8 of last 9 games (Ligue 1).
Prediction on corners
H2H
- average Over/Under corners in H2H matches - 8.5 (3.6 - for home team and 4.9 - for away team);
- average Over/Under corners at home team's field - 8.6 (4.4 - for home team and 4.2 - for away team).
Olympique Marseille: Statistics
- season: average Over/Under in the tournament - 5.2; at home field - 5.47;
- last 10 matches: average Over/Under - 7.1; at home field - 7.4.
Stade Brest: Statistics
- season: average Over/Under in the tournament - 4.33, away - 4.53;
- last 10 matches: average Over/Under - 6.1; away - 6.
- Olympique Marseille have taken under 5.5 corners in last 9 games against Stade Brest (Ligue 1).
Prediction on cards
H2H
- average Over/Under yellow cards in H2H matches - 4 (2 for home team and 2 for away team);
- average Over/Under yellow cards at the home team's field - 2.8 (1.2 for home team and 1.6 for away team).
Olympique Marseille: Statistics
- season: average Over/Under in the tournament - 1.67; at home - 2;
- last 10 matches: average Over/Under - 1.4; at home - 1.8.
Stade Brest: Statistics
- season: average Over/Under in the tournament - 1.77, away - 1.93;
- last 10 matches: average Over/Under - 2; away - 2.6.
- Over 2.5 yellow cards in 7 of last 8 Olympique Marseille home games.
- Over 2.5 yellow cards in 6 of last 7 Olympique Marseille home games (Ligue 1).
- Over 2.5 yellow cards in last 8 Stade Brest away games (Ligue 1).
Prediction on BTTS
H2H:
- number of encounters - 10;
- both teams scored all-time - 8 times;
- on the home team’s field - 4 times.
Statistics: Olympique Marseille vs Stade Brest
- number of matches played in the tournament: 30 vs 30;
- number of matches in the season where both teams scored (BTTS): 19 vs 18;
- number of BTTS matches for Olympique Marseille at home - 11 (73%);
- number of BTTS matches for Stade Brest away - 9 (60%).
Last 10 matches:
- number of BTTS matches: 5 vs 6;
- BTTS matches for Olympique Marseille at home - 3 (60%);
- BTTS matches for Stade Brest away - 3 (60%).
Editor's Prediction
Both teams boast dynamic attacking play and can generate numerous scoring opportunities against their opponents' goals. Considering Marseille's trend of over 2.5 goals and their high scoring rate this season, along with Brest's defensive inconsistencies, betting on over (3) goals appears to be the most reasonable choice for this match under these conditions. Supporting this bet is Marseille's high average home goal tally (2.2) and the trend of conceding goals, both in head-to-head encounters (9 out of 10) and in home games (13 out of 14).
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Betting Tips: Olympique Marseille - Stade Brest
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Comparison of Teams Stats
