Atalanta vs Lecce Prediction 27 April 2025
๐What can we expect from the clash between Atalanta and Lecce in the 34th round of Serie A? Despite their strong position in the standings, Atalanta struggle to convert chances at home, failing to score in four of their last five matches. Their solid defense could be the key to success, especially given their opponent's weak attack. Lecce are desperately fighting to stay in the league, but their form is concerning as their losing streak continues. It will be intriguing to see the strategies both teams employ: will the hosts push forward or play it safe, while the visitors attempt to capitalize on rare opportunities?
Head-to-Head
๐Statistical preview of official encounters between Atalanta and Lecce:
- 7 matches played;
- home team wins - 5, away team wins - 2, draws - 0;
- goals scored - 19 against 7;
- average total in the first half - 1.71, in the second half - 2;
- average total goals per match - 3.71.
The last game took place on 19 August 2024 at Lecce's ground and ended with a 0-4 scoreline.
Head-to-head statistics Atalanta - Lecce
Atalanta Team Overview
๐Atalanta, currently sitting third in the standings, showcase impressive defense and discipline. However, the Bergamo side struggle with scoring at home - they have failed to find the net in four of their last five home fixtures. The team prefers a defensive strategy with a focus on counterattacks and swift transitions from defense to offense. In their latest match against Lecce, they secured a convincing 4-0 victory on the road. Fan support will be a crucial factor for them in the upcoming clash.
In Serie A's 33rd round, Atalanta claimed a crucial 1-0 victory over AC Milan. The only goal of the match was scored by Ederson, earning the team three vital points in their quest for a Champions League spot. Head coach Gian Piero Gasperini expressed satisfaction with the outcome: "This was an important win for us. We showed character and played with full commitment. Now we need to focus on the next match and keep moving forward."
Nevertheless, the team approaches the match with several notable absences. Gianluca Scamacca, Giorgio Scalvini, and Marco Paลกaliฤ are sidelined until early May, affecting attack, defense, and midfield respectively. Sead Kolaลกinac is recovering from a serious cruciate ligament injury and won't return before late August. Stefan Posch remains doubtful due to a hamstring injury.
Match Results: Atalanta
Lecce Team Overview
๐ Lecce are teetering on the edge of relegation from Serie A, sitting in seventeenth place. The "Salentians" are fighting for every point, but their current form is disappointing - they haven't won in ten matches and have lost seven of their last eight games. Their attack is struggling, averaging only 0.7 goals per game while conceding a high 1.67 goals. Their last head-to-head clash ended in a crushing 0-4 home defeat to Atalanta.
In the 33rd round, Lecce suffered a 0-3 loss to Como, allowing Venezia and Empoli to close in on them in the standings. Head coach Marco Giampaolo acknowledged the difficult situation but emphasized that his players remain determined to fight until the end.
It's worth noting that the team faces two suspensions - Nikola Krstoviฤ and Medon Berisha will miss the match. Additionally, Filip Marchwiลski is out for the season with an ACL injury, and Gabi Jean won't return until early September due to a similar issue. The personnel situation complicates the task for the coaching staff.
Match Results: Lecce
Prediction on the outcome
H2H:
- number of encounters - 7;
- home team wins - 5, away team wins - 2, draws - 0.
Statistics: Atalanta vs Lecce
- number of matches played in the tournament: 33 vs 33;
- number of wins: 19 vs 6;
- win percentage: 58% vs 18%;
- number of losses: 7 vs 19;
- number of draws: 7 vs 8.
Last 10 matches:
- number of wins: 4 vs 0;
- number of losses: 4 vs 7;
- number of draws: 2 vs 3.
- Lecce won with a +1.5 handicap in 10 of last 11 games (Serie A).
- Lecce won with a +1.5 handicap in last 5 away games (Serie A).
Prediction on the over/under
H2H
- today's home team scores on average - 2.71, the guests - 1;
- average Over/Under goals in H2H matches - 3.71;
- both teams scored: overall - 4; at the home team's field - 2.
Statistics: Atalanta vs Lecce
- average total in the tournament: 2.91 vs 2.36;
- average total goals scored: 2 vs 0.7;
- average total in the 1st half: 1 vs 0.3;
- average total in the 2nd half: 1 vs 0.39;
- Atalanta: average total at home in the tournament - 1.94;
- Lecce: average total away in the tournament - 0.69;
- last 10 matches (average total): 1.3 (home - 0.5) vs 0.5 (away - 0.5).
- Under 3.5 goals scored in 9 of last 10 Lecce games (Serie A).
Prediction on corners
H2H
- average Over/Under corners in H2H matches - 9.57 (6 - for home team and 3.57 - for away team);
- average Over/Under corners at home team's field - 10.67 (6.67 - for home team and 4 - for away team).
Atalanta: Statistics
- season: average Over/Under in the tournament - 4.67; at home field - 5.13;
- last 10 matches: average Over/Under - 6; at home field - 7.
Lecce: Statistics
- season: average Over/Under in the tournament - 4.36, away - 3.38;
- last 10 matches: average Over/Under - 5.8; away - 4.
Prediction on cards
H2H
- average Over/Under yellow cards in H2H matches - 4.86 (2.43 for home team and 2.43 for away team);
- average Over/Under yellow cards at the home team's field - 5 (2.33 for home team and 2.67 for away team).
Atalanta: Statistics
- season: average Over/Under in the tournament - 1.48; at home - 1.06;
- last 10 matches: average Over/Under - 1.7; at home - 1.83.
Lecce: Statistics
- season: average Over/Under in the tournament - 1.45, away - 1.75;
- last 10 matches: average Over/Under - 1.6; away - 1.75.
Prediction on BTTS
H2H:
- number of encounters - 7;
- both teams scored all-time - 4 times;
- on the home teamโs field - 2 times.
Statistics: Atalanta vs Lecce
- number of matches played in the tournament: 33 vs 33;
- number of matches in the season where both teams scored (BTTS): 15 vs 13;
- number of BTTS matches for Atalanta at home - 10 (63%);
- number of BTTS matches for Lecce away - 6 (38%).
Last 10 matches:
- number of BTTS matches: 1 vs 4;
- BTTS matches for Atalanta at home - 1 (17%);
- BTTS matches for Lecce away - 2 (50%).
Editor's Prediction
The match between Atalanta and Lecce could unfold more conservatively than Atalanta's status might suggest. Lecce, in this Serie A season, emphasizes solid defense and avoids overly open play-under 3.5 goals have been recorded in nine of their last ten matches. Even against stronger opponents, the team aims to minimize risks and strictly focus on defense. Given these trends, betting on under 3.5 goals appears to be a well-founded prediction.
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