Independiente Medellin vs Deportivo Pasto Prediction 25 July 2026
🔊 Independiente Medellín open their Clausura campaign against Deportivo Pasto. The hosts are the stronger side and are rightly priced as clear favourites. That said, they played a tough Copa Sudamericana match on Wednesday - physically and emotionally draining - so Deportivo could make things difficult.
Head-to-Head
The last official encounter between the teams took place on 18 January 2026 and ended with a scoreline of 1:0. Here's a comparative breakdown of that match (home team - Pasto):
- ball possession percentage: 43% vs 57%;
- corner kicks: 4 vs 5;
- fouls: 20 vs 12;
- yellow cards: 3 vs 3;
- shots on target: 2 vs 4.
📊 Statistical preview of official matches between the teams Independiente Medellin and Pasto:
- played 43 matches;
- number of wins for the home team - 19, for the away team - 11, draws - 13;
- number of goals - 48 against 34;
- average total in the 1st half - 0.77, in the 2nd half - 1.14;
- average total goals in the match - 1.91.
Head-to-head statistics Independiente Medellin - Deportivo Pasto
Independiente Medellin Team Overview
The team's most recent official match took place on as part of the Copa Sudamericana tournament (home team - Independiente Medellin, away team - Vasco da Gama). The match concluded with a scoreline of 2:2.
Here's the game statistics (Independiente Medellin vs Vasco da Gama):
- ball possession: 47% vs 53%;
- corner kicks: 3 vs 6;
- fouls: 11 vs 10;
- yellow cards: 1 vs 1;
- shots on target: 3 vs 4.
Independiente Medellín had a poor Apertura - 11th place, just seven wins. The attacking side of their game was decent enough, averaging 1.37 goals per match, but the defence let them down too often, conceding 1.3 per game. The two-month break presumably gave the coaching staff time to work on that first. Judging by the recent Copa Sudamericana draw with Vasco da Gama (2-2), the problems haven't been fully fixed - though Vasco are a tough opponent, and that has to be taken into account. In the Colombian league, with weaker opposition, Independiente may well look better.
Match Results: Independiente Medellin
Pasto Team Overview
The away team played their last official match on as part of the Cup tournament (home team - Pasto, away - Bogota). The match concluded with a scoreline of 0:1.
Here are the match stats (Pasto vs Bogota):
- ball possession: 57% vs 43%;
- corner kicks: 8 vs 1;
- fouls: 13 vs 14;
- yellow cards: 1 vs 2;
- shots on target: 5 vs 2.
Deportivo Pasto had a strong Apertura, finishing third in the table. The playoffs were a different story - they went out in the opening round, beaten by Deportivo Tolima. Expectations have grown since then, and fans are now dreaming of more than just a solid league campaign. But Tuesday's Copa Colombia match against Bogota brought them back down to earth: Pasto lost 1-0 at home and looked poor doing it. The squad has been reshuffled, and it shows - the chemistry isn't there yet. Don't expect too much from them in the early rounds.
Match Results: Pasto
Prediction for the 1st half
Head-to-Head Matches:
- Total encounters - 43;
- First-half wins at home for hosts - 10; for visitors away - 0; number of draws - 10;
- Average first-half total: 0.77;
- Today's home team scores on average 0.49, while the visitors net 0.28.
First-Half Stats: Independiente Medellin (home) vs Pasto (away)
- matches played in the tournament: 10 vs 10;
- wins: 2 (20%) vs 4 (40%);
- losses: 6 (60%) vs 4 (40%);
- draws: 2 (20%) vs 2 (20%);
- Average goals scored: 1.8 vs 1.4;
- Average goals conceded: 1.1 vs 0.8.
Last 10 Matches (Overall):
- wins: 3 vs 3;
- losses: 1 vs 2;
- draws: 6 vs 5;
- Average first-half total: 1 (scored - 0.6, conceded - 0.4) vs 1.1 (scored - 0.6, conceded - 0.5).
- Independiente Medellin scored in the 1st half in 6 of last 7 games.
Prediction on the outcome
H2H:
- number of encounters - 43;
- home team wins - 19, away team wins - 11, draws - 13.
Statistics: Independiente Medellin vs Pasto
- matches played in the tournament: 19 vs 19;
- wins: 7 vs 10;
- win percentage: 37% vs 48%;
- losses: 7 vs 7;
- draws: 5 vs 4.
Last 10 matches:
- wins: 4 vs 3;
- losses: 3 vs 6;
- draws: 3 vs 1.
- Independiente Medellin have won in 13 of last 15 home games against Pasto.
- Pasto have lost in last 5 games.
Prediction on the over/under
H2H
- today's home team scores on average - 1.12, the guests - 0.79;
- average Over/Under goals in H2H matches - 1.91;
- both teams scored: overall - 17; at the home team's field - 8.
Statistics: Independiente Medellin vs Pasto
- average total in the tournament: 2.63 vs 2.71;
- average total goals scored: 1.37 vs 1.38;
- average total in the 1st half: 0.47 vs 0.62;
- average total in the 2nd half: 0.89 vs 0.76;
- Independiente Medellin: average total at home in the tournament - 1.5;
- Pasto: average total away in the tournament - 1.5;
- last 10 matches (average total): 1.2 (home - 1.17) vs 1.1 (away - 1.6).
- Over 1.5 goals scored in 13 of last 15 Independiente Medellin games (Liga Aguila).
- Over 1.5 goals scored in 11 of last 12 Independiente Medellin home games (Liga Aguila).
Prediction on corners
- Independiente Medellin have taken over 5.5 corners in last 5 home games against Pasto.
Prediction on BTTS
H2H:
- number of encounters - 43;
- both teams scored all-time - 17 times;
- on the home team’s field - 8 times.
Statistics: Independiente Medellin vs Pasto
- number of matches played in the tournament: 19 vs 19;
- number of matches in the season where both teams scored (BTTS): 13 vs 11;
- number of BTTS matches for Independiente Medellin at home - 7 (70%);
- number of BTTS matches for Pasto away - 6 (60%).
Last 10 matches:
- number of BTTS matches: 6 vs 5;
- BTTS matches for Independiente Medellin at home - 3 (50%);
- BTTS matches for Pasto away - 3 (60%).
Correct score prediction
Statistics of frequent results (current season):
- most common score in the tournament: 1:1 (32/204, 15.7%);
- Independiente Medellin at home most often finish matches: 1:2 (3/10, 30%);
- Pasto away most often play: 1:2 (2/10, 20%).
Based on statistics and probability distribution, the algorithm predicts the top 3 outcomes:
1:1 - 11.91% (odds 6.5)
1:0 - 9.44% (odds 6)
2:1 - 9.24% (odds 8)
- Independiente Medellin won 1:0 in 3 of last 4 home games against Pasto.
⭐ Editor's Prediction
Independiente Medellín's defence isn't reliable - they've been conceding at an average of 1.3 goals per game over their last ten matches and rarely keep a clean sheet. There's a clear pattern too: Independiente conceded in eight of their last nine games, which tells you the defensive problems are consistent. Deportivo Pasto, even after a tough cup exit, could take advantage of a more talented opponent running on fumes after a gruelling international fixture. We think there's a good chance this opens up, with both sides making mistakes at the back. We're going with Both Teams To Score (Yes).
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Betting Tips: Independiente Medellin - Pasto
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Comparison of Teams Stats
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