HJK Helsinki vs TPS Prediction 26 July 2026
📣 Matchday 17 of the Finnish Veikkausliiga brings us a genuinely interesting derby between two old rivals. HJK Helsinki host TPS Turku at Bolt Arena, with just three points separating the two sides in the table. That's enough to make this one matter for both teams - HJK looking to strengthen their position near the top, TPS trying to steady themselves after a rough patch.
Head-to-Head
The last official match between these two sides ended 1-0. Here's the comparative stats from that game (home side: TPS Turku):
- possession: 33% vs 67%;
- corners: 5 vs 11;
- fouls: 13 vs 11;
- yellow cards: 1 vs 1;
- shots on target: 4 vs 4.
📊 Statistical preview based on official meetings between HIK and TPS Turku:
- 33 matches played;
- home wins - 21, away wins - 7, draws - 5;
- goals - 63 vs 27;
- average first-half total - 1.15, second-half - 1.58;
- average match total - 2.73.
Head-to-head statistics HJK Helsinki - TPS
HJK Helsinki Team Overview
The last official match was played in the Conference League qualifying round, with HJK as the home side and Coleraine as the visitors. The match ended 5-0.
Match stats (HJK vs Coleraine):
- Possession: 61% vs 39%;
- Corners: 3 vs 4;
- Fouls: 9 vs 3;
- Yellow cards: 1 vs 0;
- Shots on target: 7 vs 4.
HIK are fifth in the league with 25 points. They're in good form - four wins from their last five, with just one slip-up. The attack has been sharp, averaging close to three goals per game over their last ten matches, while the defence has held up reasonably well, conceding just over one per game. The main motivation for the hosts is a Champions League qualification spot, and they're pushing hard for it.
Match Results: HJK Helsinki
TPS Turku Team Overview
The visitors' last official match was in the Veikkausliiga (home side: TPS Turku, away side: Ilves). It ended 1-3.
Match stats (TPS Turku vs Ilves):
- Possession: 42% vs 58%;
- Corners: 7 vs 6;
- Fouls: 16 vs 13;
- Yellow cards: 3 vs 3;
- Shots on target: 2 vs 6.
TPS Turku sit eighth in the table with 22 points. Recent form has been inconsistent - two wins and three defeats in the last five matches. The main problem is in front of goal: over the last ten games, they're averaging just over one goal per match. The defence isn't much better, conceding around 1.5 per game and making costly mistakes on a regular basis.
Match Results: TPS Turku
Prediction on the outcome
H2H:
- number of encounters - 33;
- home team wins - 21, away team wins - 7, draws - 5.
Statistics: HJK Helsinki vs TPS Turku
- matches played in the tournament: 16 vs 16;
- wins: 7 vs 6;
- win percentage: 44% vs 38%;
- losses: 5 vs 6;
- draws: 4 vs 4.
Last 10 matches:
- wins: 7 vs 3;
- losses: 2 vs 6;
- draws: 1 vs 1.
- HJK Helsinki have not lost in 10 of last 11 games against TPS Turku.
- HJK Helsinki have not lost in 7 of last 8 games against TPS Turku (Veikkausliiga).
- HJK Helsinki have not lost in 8 of last 9 home games.
- TPS Turku have not won in last 8 away games.
- TPS Turku have not won in last 7 away games (Veikkausliiga).
Prediction on the over/under
H2H
- today's home team scores on average - 1.91, the guests - 0.82;
- average Over/Under goals in H2H matches - 2.73;
- both teams scored: overall - 14; at the home team's field - 4.
Statistics: HJK Helsinki vs TPS Turku
- average total in the tournament: 2.94 vs 2.44;
- average total goals scored: 1.69 vs 1.25;
- average total in the 1st half: 0.63 vs 0.56;
- average total in the 2nd half: 1.06 vs 0.69;
- HJK Helsinki: average total at home in the tournament - 1.5;
- TPS Turku: average total away in the tournament - 0.71;
- last 10 matches (average total): 2.9 (home - 2.17) vs 1.1 (away - 0.4).
- HJK Helsinki have scored over 1.5 goals in last 5 home games against TPS Turku.
Prediction on BTTS
H2H:
- number of encounters - 33;
- both teams scored all-time - 14 times;
- on the home team’s field - 4 times.
Statistics: HJK Helsinki vs TPS Turku
- number of matches played in the tournament: 16 vs 16;
- number of matches in the season where both teams scored (BTTS): 7 vs 9;
- number of BTTS matches for HJK Helsinki at home - 3 (38%);
- number of BTTS matches for TPS Turku away - 4 (57%).
Last 10 matches:
- number of BTTS matches: 5 vs 5;
- BTTS matches for HJK Helsinki at home - 3 (50%);
- BTTS matches for TPS Turku away - 2 (40%).
⭐ Editor's Prediction
HJK to win - that's the most straightforward call here. The hosts are a level above their opponents in terms of squad quality and have looked a much more cohesive unit over the past month. Their attack should have little trouble picking apart a TPS defence that has been leaking goals. At home, in front of their own fans, HJK will take control early and leave the visitors chasing shadows. A 2-0 scoreline looks plausible.
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Betting Tips: HJK Helsinki - TPS Turku
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