Paraguay vs Australia Prediction 26 June 2026
🔊 The US have done their job - first place in Group D was sealed after the second round. Now at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, it's Australia vs Paraguay for the other knockout stage spot. Both sides are level on three points, but Australia sit higher on goal difference. That said, the math at this World Cup is set up so that third place isn't necessarily the end of the road - a draw could actually suit both teams. Read on to make sense of the standings.
Head-to-Head
📊 Paraguay and Australia have a fairly thin head-to-head record - five meetings in total, all friendlies. The last came in 2010, which makes it hard to use as a reference point here.
Paraguay Team Overview
⚪ Before the tournament, the general assumption was that four points and a positive goal difference would be enough for a comfortable third-place finish. The chaotic group stage results have shifted that math: four points now guarantee progress regardless of goals, and three points with a zero goal difference gives over a 99% chance of going through. Paraguay - who missed three consecutive World Cups and currently sit third with three points and a -2 goal difference - could be one of the unlikely beneficiaries.
🔴 A lot of that is down to the crucial win over Turkey (1-0) in round two. After the heavy opening defeat to the US (1-4), many wrote Paraguay off - but Gustavo Alfaro's side showed they can adapt to opponents. Against Turkey they set up compact without the ball and looked to hit quickly on the break. The plan worked inside two minutes: after a midfield interception, Mathías Galarza found space outside the box and finished low to make it 1-0. After that, Paraguay deliberately stepped back, handed Turkey the ball and focused on breaking up their attacks.
Match Results: Paraguay
Australia Team Overview
🟡 In round one, Australia beat Turkey (2-0) using the same methods Paraguay would later deploy - counter-attacks, defensive compactness. Round two against the US didn't go as well (0-2), but it wasn't a disaster - goal difference stays at zero, second place in the group is still theirs. The Socceroos come into this match in control of their own fate.
🟢 Against the US, Tony Postecoglou's - wait, Toni Popovic's - plan didn't work nearly as well as it had a few days earlier. The main problem was progressing the ball through midfield. Popovic set up the same way - compact defence, vertical transitions off turnovers - but the US closed down very quickly after losing possession and killed any counter-attacking momentum. Australia barely created anything dangerous and put almost no pressure on the American goal. Both goals conceded came from sustained US pressure, repeatedly finding gaps between the defensive lines. Worth noting: Popovic again surprised with his selection, leaving both scorers from the Turkey game - Irvine and Metcalfe - on the bench from the start.
Match Results: Australia
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Paraguay
📌 Things got harder just before half-time when Miguel Almirón was sent off with a straight red card. In the second half, Alfaro essentially abandoned any attacking intent - dropping deep, bringing on an extra midfielder for a striker and defending the lead. Turkey had 79% possession, bombarded the box with crosses and made a string of attacking substitutions, but Paraguay held on through organised defending and a solid performance from goalkeeper Orlando Gill.
❌ Paraguay have squad concerns: Gustavo Caballero and Ramón Sosa are doubts, while Miguel Almirón is suspended. The Almirón absence is the most damaging - he's one of the key figures in their attacking play, and without him, driving forward with quality will be harder.
Australia
❌ Australia's situation is calmer - only Matthew Leckie is in doubt. Losing an experienced forward is mildly inconvenient for rotation purposes, but it's not a crisis. There are enough options to adjust the front line.
Predicted Lineups
📃 Paraguay predicted starting XI: Gill - Alonso, Alderete, Gomez, Cáceres - Galarza, Cubas, Bobadilla, Diego Gómez - Enciso, Sanabria
📃 Australia predicted starting XI: Beach - Bos, Burgess, Circati, Souttar, Italiano - Irvine, O'Neill, Okon-Engstler, Metcalfe - Toure
🟨 Yellow Cards
Despite what's at stake, this doesn't look like a match that will produce many bookings. Both Paraguay and Australia build their game around discipline and defensive organisation. The tournament situation adds to that: if a draw suits both sides, there's little incentive to turn this into a physical battle from the first minute. Total yellow cards under 2.5 at 1.76* makes sense in that context.
⚽ Goals
Both teams have been far more comfortable without the ball than with it at this tournament. Paraguay and Australia have each relied on compact defending and fast breaks against the US and Turkey - and it's worked. Neither has shown they can consistently break down a deep defensive block and create chances in open play. There's a real risk this is a tight, scrappy match with few clear openings. Both Teams To Score (No) at 1.75* looks justified.
🚩 Corners
The figure from Paraguay vs Turkey (12 corners) looks alarming at first glance - but Turkey won all 12 of them while besieging Paraguay's goal for the entire match. Paraguay didn't win a single one. When two similarly-matched teams both prefer to defend and attack on the break rather than build sustained positional pressure, corners are naturally scarce. Total corners under 8.5 at 1.59* follows from that.
🚀 Player Stat Bet
One of Paraguay's key disruptors is Andrés Cubas. The midfielder does an enormous amount of defensive work in the centre of the pitch - constantly in duels, breaking up opposition attacks. It's no surprise he committed five fouls in each of his matches against the US and Turkey. The game against Australia also promises a lot of midfield battles, where the 30-year-old will regularly need to tackle and cover for teammates. Andrés Cubas total fouls over 3 looks like a strong option.
😱 Risky Bet
Almirón already picked up a red card against Turkey, and referees at this tournament have been strict - VAR is active and the new rules give more grounds for tough decisions. Paraguay are also one of the roughest sides in the competition. A red card at 7.50* is worth a look in that context.
🎯 Safe Bet
For the most reliable option, total goals under 3 at 1.22* stands out. As already noted, both teams prefer to defend and haven't shown they can consistently generate chances in positional play. The stakes are too high for either side to take unnecessary risks going forward.
👀 If the Match Doesn't Go as Planned
Australia are happy with the current standings and are unlikely to come out pushing hard from the off. But if Paraguay score first, things change quickly for the Socceroos - they'd need to open up, attack more and find a way through. In that scenario, Australia to score at 1.60* is a logical bet.
*Odds are approximate and may vary across different bookmakers.
Editor's Prediction
The bookmakers don't see a clear favourite here, and the draw is actually the shortest price - rare, but logical given what we've outlined. That doesn't mean the teams will play out a convenient result. Paraguay are in the more vulnerable position because of goal difference, which means they'll need to think about attacking more than Australia will. Second place is also meaningfully better than third - the knockout stage draw could offer a more manageable opponent. We're backing Paraguay -0.25 handicap, and expecting 1-0 on the scoreboard.
Will this prediction come true?
Betting Tips: Paraguay - Australia
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