Tunisia vs Netherlands Prediction 25 June 2026

🟨 Yellow Card Prediction

With nothing to play for, Renard is unlikely to set his team up to fight for every ball. That should affect the number of duels in the match. Tunisia showed little urgency to win possession at any cost in the first two rounds - just one yellow card across both games. Expect more of the same. Our pick: Tunisia total yellow cards under 1.5 at 1.89*.

🚩 Corner Prediction

Under Koeman, especially against weaker opposition, the Netherlands typically play with three forwards in a 4-3-3. That doesn't mean they rely purely on wide play - in fact, none of their strikers are taller than 180cm, so frequent crosses from open play or set pieces aren't a given, apart from when the defenders get forward.

Their main aerial threat, Virgil van Dijk, is injured - which will reduce the corner count. Tunisia won't be pushing hard from set pieces either. Total corners under 9.5 at 1.85* follows logically.

⚽ Goals Prediction

Both coaches are likely to rotate heavily in a dead rubber. Memphis Depay could start, and Tunisia may reshuffle their defence after conceding freely in the first two matches.

The difference is that Koeman's squad has enough quality to win by a margin at least as large as what Tunisia's previous opponents managed. Total goals over 3.5 at 2.22* is the pick.

😱 Risky Bet

Given Tunisia's recent results, another heavy defeat is far from unlikely - they're still up against the group favourites. The Dutch have done their job in terms of qualification, but final group position matters for the playoff draw too. Beating Tunisia convincingly would help. Netherlands -3.5 handicap at 3.70* isn't as far-fetched as it sounds.

🚀 Player Stat Bet

Koeman may not risk Depay's fitness just to give him a shot at breaking the national team scoring record. Among the rotation options is Ryan Gravenberch - wait, it's Brian Brobby, who scored twice against Sweden in the previous match. Even off the bench he's capable of getting on the scoresheet, particularly against a weak Tunisia side. Brian Brobby to score at 1.88*.

🎯 Safe Bet

Despite usually making fast starts, the Netherlands typically need time to find their range in front of goal. Seven matches in a row with a second-half goal backs that up.

Tunisia are the opposite - they haven't kept a clean sheet in the second half in six straight games. Renard's side might come out fired up early and hold on for a while, but as the match progresses the chances of a Dutch goal after the break only grow. Netherlands to score in the second half at 1.20*.

👀 If the Match Doesn't Go as Planned

Both sides could rotate, which might blunt the Dutch attack and give Tunisia's defence a bit more solidity. It's not that long ago that the Netherlands went four straight matches scoring no more than twice in pre-tournament preparation.

Tunisia's defensive record in World Cup qualifying was also impressive. If the game doesn't go to the favourites' script, total goals under 2.5 at 2.7* comes into play.

*Odds are approximate and may vary across different bookmakers.

Editors' Prediction

The main question is whether Tunisia can avoid another heavy defeat. Given the circumstances - and their lack of anything to play for - we lean towards no. Koeman has the squad depth to rotate and then change things again in the second half. We don't think he'll be too preoccupied with the small details, especially with points and goal difference level with Japan. Either way, a big win matters for the Dutch - it could mean a more comfortable draw in the knockout stage. That points to Netherlands total goals over 2.5. Tunisia will struggle to contain the group favourites. We're expecting a scoreline at least as heavy as what the other Group F sides managed - 4-0 to Koeman's side.