Leeds vs West Ham Prediction
🔊 Can Nuno Espirito Santo secure his first win at the helm of West Ham? It's no easy task. The team faces an away game against Leeds. At Elland Road, the Yorkshire side rarely taste defeat. Even Tottenham found it uncomfortable here. Although the Londoners managed to leave with three points, the match was a close call. Statistically, the hosts outplayed Spurs. What fate awaits their neighbors from the east? Let's predict in our editorial analysis.
Head-to-Head
📊 Since 2020, the teams have faced off six times. West Ham have shown absolute dominance with four wins compared to Leeds' single victory. The "Peacocks" managed to snatch a point from the London side once with a draw. Notably, both teams found the net in 5 out of these 6 encounters. The aggregate score stands at 13-8.
H2H Stats Matches and Previous Teams Results
Leeds United Team Overview
Daniel Farke's team in the current Premier League campaign has primarily been collecting points at home, with five points secured at Elland Road compared to just three on the road. Leeds have suffered only one defeat in four home matches, despite facing formidable opponents such as Everton, Newcastle, Bournemouth, and Tottenham. What particularly highlights the Peacocks' strength at home is their statistical performance. The Whites have only trailed in terms of possession, and even then, their territorial advantage never dipped below 41%. In terms of creativity, they have outplayed all their opponents. Thus, the upcoming match presents an excellent opportunity to distance themselves from the relegation zone, which is currently just two points away following their away loss to Burnley (0-2).
Despite the scoreline against Burnley, Farke's men cannot be faulted for their effort. It was more a case of Burnley's clinical finishing: out of four shots on goal with an xG of 0.32, they scored twice. The Peacocks attacked much more frequently (19 shots) and with higher quality (1.92 xG). Dominic Calvert-Lewin squandered all his chances, failing to hit the target with any of his four attempts. The most dangerous creator for Leeds was full-back Gabriel Gudmundsson. The Swede dominated the left flank, leading in both goal-scoring opportunities created and expected assists (0.56). He also excelled defensively, winning more ground duels than anyone else (8 out of 12).
Match Results: Leeds United
West Ham United Team Overview
The change in management didn’t immediately benefit the Hammers. A glimmer of hope came with a draw against Everton (1-1) right after Nuno Espírito Santo took charge. That match was indeed a solid performance by his squad. Playing away, they nearly matched their opponents in possession (48% to 52%) and posed a greater attacking threat (1.14 xG compared to 0.77 xG). However, things quickly reverted to form. They suffered two lackluster 2-0 defeats to Arsenal and Brentford, generating only 0.95 expected goals while conceding 5.27 at their own end.
West Ham's main hopes rest on Lucas Paquetá and Jarrod Bowen. The Englishman has scored twice in his last four matches. The Brazilian last found the net back in Matchweek 3 of the Premier League. Despite their modest goal tally, they remain the team's top scorers. Interestingly, Paquetá has played in three different positions across the last three fixtures, a necessity due to Niclas Füllkrug's injury. This has disrupted the once-effective interplay between the nominal playmaker and Bowen.
Match Results: West Ham United
Latest news
Leeds United
⚡️ A scandal erupted in Leeds' media landscape even before their clash with West Ham. The club withdrew an invitation to former owner Andrea Radrizzani for the match. The current management was displeased with his decision to disclose details about his return to the media earlier this month. The former owner has not been seen at Elland Road since selling the club following their relegation to the Championship at the end of the 2022/23 season. The 49ers Enterprises acquired the Italian businessman's 56% stake in Leeds for £170 million.
❌ Wilfried Gnonto recovered from a calf injury but is now sidelined again due to a hernia. Noah Okafor, who has been finding the net frequently, missed the last match due to a muscle injury. The Swiss forward is likely to be included in the squad against West Ham but is expected to start on the bench.
West Ham United
📝 West Ham are struggling with their finishing. On average, the Hammers score just 0.4 goals per Premier League match. The gamble on Niclas Füllkrug hasn't paid off due to injuries. Manager David Moyes prefers 20-year-old Callum Marshall over the experienced Callum Wilson. Even Lucas Paquetá has been deployed as a center forward. As a result, the club's management is eagerly counting down the days until the winter transfer window to secure a deal for Ivan Toney. This week, rumors surfaced that the former Brentford striker is keen to return to the Premier League to boost his chances of making England's World Cup squad next year.
❌ According to the head coach, Konstantinos Mavropanos will be unavailable for Friday's match. This is a significant blow, as the defender started in six of the eight Premier League rounds. The status of Niclas Füllkrug remains unclear. Before the international break, he was diagnosed with a thigh muscle tear.
🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards
The match will be officiated by Stuart Attwell. Over his last 20 Premier League matches, he has averaged 4.2 yellow cards per game. Matches involving both teams rarely hit such numbers, and the same goes for their head-to-head clashes. Only one of their last five encounters saw the total exceed four yellow cards. Our prediction: total yellow cards under 4.5.
⚽️ Goal Prediction
We're making a less obvious call in favor of West Ham here. Yes, scoring has been a challenge for them, with only six goals in eight matches. However, the Hammers still boast some quality players and are approaching this match with nearly a full-strength squad. There are concerns about the center-forward position, but the versatility of Bowen and Paqueta should compensate. West Ham have performed well at Elland Road, scoring in each of their visits to Leeds, as well as in all other head-to-head meetings. Our bet: West Ham to score.
🚩 Corner Prediction
Leeds feel right at home at Elland Road. Even against top opponents, Daniel Farke's side impose their style, and if they concede possession, they quickly press high. We expect a similar scenario against West Ham. However, this is unlikely to affect the number of set-pieces for the visitors. Firstly, despite their issues, the Hammers remain effective at set-pieces, particularly in creating them. Among all Premier League teams, the London club ranks sixth in average corners per game (5.62). Secondly, in 6 out of 7 head-to-head matches against Leeds, the Hammers have delivered at least three corners. We anticipate they will do so again this time. Editor's choice: West Ham total corners over 3.5.
Editorial Prediction
It's time to highlight Leeds' strengths, particularly their performances at Elland Road. The "Whites" have avoided defeat in 10 of their last 11 official matches here, with their only setback being against Tottenham, and even that loss seemed against the run of play. Under Daniel Farke, Leeds are particularly dangerous at home, especially in creating chances, averaging 1.54 expected goals over four matches against tough opposition. Only against Newcastle did their xG fall below one, yet it was still higher than that of the visitors.
The upcoming game promises to be a spectacle, with an average of 3.5 goals scored in their last six head-to-head encounters. We hope this high-scoring trend continues, with the hosts expected to play a major role in the goal tally. They have the capability to outgun the "Hammers" and turn the match in their favor (2-1). Given these conditions, betting on Leeds to score over 1.5 goals seems a solid choice.
Betting Tips: Leeds United - West Ham United
in 7 of last 8 games.in 10 of last 11 home games.in 8 of last 9 games.in 7 of last 8 games (Premier League).
in last 7 Leeds United games against West Ham United.in last 6 Leeds United games against West Ham United (Premier League).in 13 of last 15 Leeds United home games.in last 20 West Ham United games.in last 16 West Ham United games (Premier League).in last 9 West Ham United away games.in last 8 West Ham United away games (Premier League).
in last 6 Stuart Attwell games.in last 5 Stuart Attwell games (in the Premier League).in 10 of last 11 home games.in 9 of last 10 games (Premier League).in 8 of last 9 games.
Comparison of Teams Stats
Other predictions
