Melgar vs Sporting Cristal Prediction 26 July 2026
🔊 In the second round of the Peruvian Clausura, Melgar take on Sporting Cristal. Both sides can hurt you going forward, but context matters here. Melgar, one of the Apertura's top sides, may look to shut things down at home. That could push this one toward a low-scoring game.
Head-to-Head
📊 These two last met in February, with Melgar winning 2-1. Looking at the last five head-to-head meetings, the hosts have a massive edge - four wins to one.
Head-to-head statistics Melgar - Sporting Cristal
FBC Melgar Team Overview
The team's most recent official match took place on as part of the Primera Division tournament (home team - Cienciano, away team - FBC Melgar). The match concluded with a scoreline of 1:3.
Here's the game statistics (FBC Melgar vs Cienciano):
- ball possession: 66% vs 34%;
- corner kicks: 4 vs 2;
- fouls: 10 vs 5;
- yellow cards: 4 vs 1;
- shots on target: 4 vs 5.
At home, Melgar tend to be more pragmatic. The recent away win over Cienciano was open enough - 3-1, goals flying in both directions - but on their own turf they're a different side. The numbers back that up: 2.2 goals scored per home game, just one conceded. Given the level of the opposition, a clean sheet isn't out of the question. Especially if they control the ball the way they usually do at home.
Match Results: FBC Melgar
Sporting Cristal Team Overview
The away team played their last official match on as part of the Copa Sudamericana tournament (home team - Sporting Cristal, away - Bragantino). The match concluded with a scoreline of 0:0.
Here are the match stats (Sporting Cristal vs Bragantino):
- ball possession: 50% vs 50%;
- corner kicks: 5 vs 2;
- fouls: 11 vs 8;
- yellow cards: 1 vs 3;
- shots on target: 6 vs 5.
Sporting Cristal have been in decent form lately - four wins from their last five across all competitions including the Copa de la Liga. Last round they beat Deportivo Garcilaso 1-0, though that clean sheet owed a lot to home advantage. Midweek they were in the Copa Sudamericana, drawing 0-0 with Bragantino - a decent game, but it cost them legs. Showing that same attacking quality away from home will be harder.
Match Results: Sporting Cristal
Prediction on the outcome
H2H:
- number of encounters - 39;
- home team wins - 17, away team wins - 12, draws - 10.
- Sporting Cristal won with a +1.5 handicap in 6 of last 7 games against FBC Melgar (Primera Division).
- Sporting Cristal won with a +1.5 handicap in last 7 games.
- Sporting Cristal won with a +1.5 handicap in 6 of last 7 games (Primera Division).
Prediction on the over/under
H2H
- today's home team scores on average - 1.36, the guests - 1.13;
- average Over/Under goals in H2H matches - 2.49;
- both teams scored: overall - 19; at the home team's field - 8.
Statistics: FBC Melgar vs Sporting Cristal
- average total in the tournament: 2.94 vs 3.28;
- average total goals scored: 1.78 vs 1.61;
- average total in the 1st half: 0.89 vs 0.61;
- average total in the 2nd half: 0.89 vs 1;
- FBC Melgar: average total at home in the tournament - 2.11;
- Sporting Cristal: average total away in the tournament - 1.22;
- last 10 matches (average total): 1.8 (home - 2.2) vs 1.3 (away - 1.4).
- Under 3.5 goals scored in last 10 FBC Melgar games against Sporting Cristal (Primera Division).
- Under 3.5 goals scored in last 6 Sporting Cristal games.
Prediction on corners
FBC Melgar: Statistics
- season: average Over/Under in the tournament - 4.83; at home field - 5.56;
- last 10 matches: average Over/Under - 5.4; at home field - 6.4.
Sporting Cristal: Statistics
- season: average Over/Under in the tournament - 5.94, away - 4.22;
- last 10 matches: average Over/Under - 6.5; away - 4.8.
- FBC Melgar have taken under 5.5 corners in 10 of last 11 games (Primera Division).
Prediction on BTTS
H2H:
- number of encounters - 39;
- both teams scored all-time - 19 times;
- on the home team’s field - 8 times.
- FBC Melgar have scored and conceded in 6 of last 7 games.
- FBC Melgar have scored and conceded in last 5 games (Primera Division).
- Sporting Cristal have scored and conceded in 6 of last 7 away games (Primera Division).
Correct score prediction
Statistics of frequent results (current season):
- most common score in the tournament: 1:0 (27/161, 16.8%);
- FBC Melgar at home most often finish matches: 2:0 (2/9, 22.2%);
- Sporting Cristal away most often play: 1:1 , 3:2 (2/9, 22.2%).
Based on statistics and probability distribution, the algorithm predicts the top 3 outcomes:
1:1 - 11.14% (odds 6)
2:1 - 9.73% (odds 6.5)
1:0 - 8.76% (odds 6.5)
Editor's Prediction
Melgar look like the clear favourites here. They've had significantly more time to recover, and home advantage matters - a lot. Sporting Cristal may well sit back and play on the counter. Given the hosts' style, that's probably the only sensible approach. Trying to go toe-to-toe with a side that's been one of the Apertura's top performers would be a mistake. We're not expecting an open game. Goals might come, but the bet is total goals under 3.
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Betting Tips: FBC Melgar - Sporting Cristal
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